Treasury prices rose overnight on reports that U.S./North Korea negotiations ended prematurely, but some of the gains were erased after German inflation data came in slightly higher than expected, sparking a sell-off in German bunds. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks. President Trump said he walked out of negotiations with Kim Jong Un with no agreement or formal statement because the North Korean leader was unwilling to agree to U.S. demands. Trade negotiations with China continue, and a Wall Street Journal article warns that the White House could fall into the same trap as the Bush and Obama administrations, settling for a lesser agreement void of any concrete enforcement mechanisms for technology and intellectual property theft. In an effort to maintain stock market momentum and appease U.S. farmers, President Trump has reportedly pressed his people to get a deal done sooner than later, and enforcement is the big issue yet to be resolved.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/25/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | -0.43 | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| 2/26/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 1.10% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 2/27/2019 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | -0.30% | -1.00% | -0.60% | -1.20% |
| 2/28/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 4.7 | 13.1 | 1 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | Housing Starts | 1256k | 1078k | 1256k | 1214k |
| 3/2/2019 | Building Permits | 1290k | 1326k | 1328k | 1322k |
| 3/3/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.10% | -11.20% | 3.20% | 0.40% |
| 3/4/2019 | Building Permits MoM | -2.60% | 0.30% | 5.00% | 4.50% |
| 3/5/2019 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.10% | 1.30% | — |
| 3/6/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 3/7/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.25% |
| 3/8/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.50% | 4.18% | 4.68% | 4.58% |
| 3/9/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 212.96 | 213.66 | 213.45 |
| 3/10/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.72% | 5.19% | 5.09% |
| 3/11/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.35 | 205.85 | 205.64 |
| 3/12/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 5 | 16 | -2 | — |
| 3/13/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 124.9 | 131.4 | 120.2 | 121.7 |
| 3/14/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 173.5 | 169.6 | 170.2 |
| 3/15/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 103.4 | 87.3 | 89.4 |
| 3/16/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 5.30% | 3.60% | — |
| 3/17/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.6b | -$79.5b | -$70.5b | — |
| 3/18/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.90% | -0.40% | — |
| 3/19/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
| 3/20/2019 | Revisions: Pending Home Sales SA | ||||
| 3/21/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | 4.60% | -2.20% | -2.30% |
| 3/22/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.60% | -3.20% | -9.50% | — |
| 3/23/2019 | Factory Orders | 0.60% | 0.10% | -0.60% | -0.50% |
| 3/24/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | -0.60% | -1.30% | — |
| 3/25/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | — | 1.20% | 1.20% | — |
| 3/26/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 3/27/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -1.00% | -0.70% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.00% | 0.50% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | BEA Releasing Initial 4Q GDP (Combining Initial/Second) | ||||
| 3/30/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 225k | 216k | 217k |
| 3/31/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1737k | 1805k | 1725k | 1726k |
| 4/1/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.20% | 2.60% | 3.40% | — |
| 4/2/2019 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | 2.80% | 3.50% | — |
| 4/3/2019 | GDP Price Index | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | — |
| 4/4/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.60% | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 57.5 | — | 56.7 | — |
| 4/6/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.6 | — |
| 4/7/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 6 | — | 5 | — |
| 4/8/2019 | BEA to Release Dec. income/spending & Jan income | ||||
| 4/9/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2019 | Personal Spending | -0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | Real Personal Spending | -0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/13/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 4/14/2019 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/15/2019 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 4/16/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.7 | — | 53.7 | — |
| 4/17/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 55.7 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 4/18/2019 | ISM Employment | — | — | 55.5 | — |
| 4/19/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 51.8 | — | 49.6 | — |
| 4/20/2019 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 58.2 | — |
| 4/21/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.9 | — | 95.5 | — |
| 4/22/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 110 | — |
| 4/23/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.2 | — |
| 4/24/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/25/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/26/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | — | 16.60m | — |