Treasuries are little changed following a quiet overnight session (China and Hong Kong markets closed for holiday), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 5 points. On the trade front, tensions with China remain, but the United States was able to reach a new trade agreement with South Korea yesterday afternoon. Additionally, U.S. officials will hold negotiations with Japan and the European Union later this week. European Central Bank (ECB) official Peter Praet tried to downplay yesterday’s hawkish comments from ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday. Draghi suggested a “vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation,” prompting the markets to anticipate rate hikes sooner than expected, but Praet emphasized previous ECB guidance that there is no rush to hike rates. The FOMC is widely expected to increase the fed funds rate tomorrow, and markets will be more focused on the updated economic and rate projections from the committee, as well as any changes in the official forward guidance.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/24 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| 09/24 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 31 | 28.1 | 30.9 | — |
| 09/25 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.16% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.20% | 5.92% | 6.31% | 6.36% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 213.76 | 213.07 | 213.17 |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.35 | 204.48 | 204.44 |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.00% | 6.24% | 6.22% |
| 09/25 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 20 | — | 24 | — |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.1 | — | 133.4 | — |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 172.2 | — |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 107.6 | — |
| 09/26 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 09/26 | New Home Sales | 630k | — | 627k | — |
| 09/26 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 09/26 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 09/26 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.00% | — | 1.75% | — |
| 09/26 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | — | — | 1.95% | — |
| 09/27 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$70.6b | — | -$72.2b | -$72.0b |
| 09/27 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/27 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 09/27 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 09/27 | Personal Consumption | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 09/27 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 09/27 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/27 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 09/27 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 201k | — |
| 09/27 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | — | 1645k | — |
| 09/27 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.2 | — |
| 09/27 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 09/27 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -1.00% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 09/27 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 16 | — | 14 | — |
| 09/28 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 09/28 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 09/28 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Core YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 09/28 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 62 | — | 63.6 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.5 | — | 100.8 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 116.1 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 91.1 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |