Treasuries are little changed following a quiet overnight session (China and Hong Kong markets closed for holiday), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 5 points. On the trade front, tensions with China remain, but the United States was able to reach a new trade agreement with South Korea yesterday afternoon. Additionally, U.S. officials will hold negotiations with Japan and the European Union later this week.  European Central Bank (ECB) official Peter Praet tried to downplay yesterday’s hawkish comments from ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday. Draghi suggested a “vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation,” prompting the markets to anticipate rate hikes sooner than expected, but Praet emphasized previous ECB guidance that there is no rush to hike rates. The FOMC is widely expected to increase the fed funds rate tomorrow, and markets will be more focused on the updated economic and rate projections from the committee, as well as any changes in the official forward guidance.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
09/24Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.20.180.130.18
09/24Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3128.130.9
09/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.30%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%0.11%0.16%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.20%5.92%6.31%6.36%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.76213.07213.17
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35204.48204.44
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.00%6.24%6.22%
09/25Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2024
09/25Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.1133.4
09/25Conf. Board Present Situation172.2
09/25Conf. Board Expectations107.6
09/26MBA Mortgage Applications1.60%
09/26New Home Sales630k627k
09/26New Home Sales MoM0.50%-1.70%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.00%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%1.75%
09/26Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.95%
09/27Advance Goods Trade Balance-$70.6b-$72.2b-$72.0b
09/27Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.60%
09/27Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.50%
09/27GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.20%
09/27Personal Consumption3.80%3.80%
09/27GDP Price Index3.00%3.00%
09/27Core PCE QoQ2.00%2.00%
09/27Durable Goods Orders2.00%-1.70%
09/27Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.10%
09/27Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%1.60%
09/27Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.00%
09/27Initial Jobless Claims210k201k
09/27Continuing Claims1678k1645k
09/27Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.2
09/27Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-0.70%
09/27Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.00%-0.50%
09/27Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1614
09/28Personal Income0.40%0.30%
09/28Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
09/28Real Personal Spending0.20%0.20%
09/28PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
09/28PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.30%
09/28PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
09/28PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%
09/28Chicago Purchasing Manager6263.6
09/28U. of Mich. Sentiment100.5100.8
09/28U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.1
09/28U. of Mich. Expectations91.1
09/28U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
09/28U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%