April 1, 2020 Headlines

A broad-risk off tone is contributing to a flatter Treasury curve, with long-end yields down 8 bps. S&P 500 futures are down 3.25% ahead of the open on the first day of the second quarter, which is perhaps fitting following the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2008. Yesterday’s grim forecast from the White House for potential coronavirus deaths is fueling today’s sell off in risk assets, as well as, to a lesser extent, reports that U.K. banks are cancelling dividends.

The ICE BofA Broad Market Index (fixed income) posted its worst month since records began in 1997, underperforming Treasuries by 3.72% in March (prior record was -2.56% in October 2008). While pretty much all sectors underperformed Treasuries, corporate debt was the biggest contributor to the index’s performance in March with a -11.14% excess return, also a record low for the index (prior low was -8.05% in September 2008).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/30/2020Pending Home Sales MoM-1.70%2.40%5.20%5.30%
3/30/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY6.50%11.50%6.70%
3/30/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-10-701.2
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.30%0.43%0.41%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.20%3.08%2.85%2.84%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index219.38218.62218.73218.7
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.92%3.75%3.66%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.43212.59212.39
3/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI4047.849
3/31/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence110120130.7132.6
3/31/2020Conf. Board Expectations88.2107.8108.1
3/31/2020Conf. Board Present Situation167.7165.1169.3
4/1/2020MBA Mortgage Applications15.30%-29.40%
4/1/2020ADP Employment Change-150k-27k183k179k
4/1/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI4848.549.2
4/1/2020Construction Spending MoM0.60%-1.30%1.80%2.80%
4/1/2020ISM Manufacturing44.549.150.1
4/1/2020ISM New Orders42.249.8
4/1/2020ISM Prices Paid41.837.445.9
4/1/2020ISM Employment43.846.9
4/1/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales12.00m16.83m
4/2/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY-26.30%
4/2/2020Trade Balance-$40.0b-$45.3b
4/2/2020Initial Jobless Claims3500k3283k
4/2/2020Continuing Claims4941k1803k
4/2/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.7
4/2/2020Factory Orders0.20%-0.50%
4/2/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.10%
4/2/2020Durable Goods Orders1.20%1.20%
4/2/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.60%-0.60%
4/2/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.80%
4/2/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.70%
4/3/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
4/3/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-100k273k
4/3/2020Change in Private Payrolls-123k228k
4/3/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-10k15k
4/3/2020Unemployment Rate3.80%3.50%
4/3/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
4/3/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%
4/3/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.4
4/3/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.30%63.40%
4/3/2020Underemployment Rate7.00%
4/3/2020Markit US Services PMI38.539.1
4/3/2020Markit US Composite PMI40.5
4/3/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index4357.3

 

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