April 1, 2020 Headlines

A broad-risk off tone is contributing to a flatter Treasury curve, with long-end yields down 8 bps. S&P 500 futures are down 3.25% ahead of the open on the first day of the second quarter, which is perhaps fitting following the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2008. Yesterday’s grim forecast from the White House for potential coronavirus deaths is fueling today’s sell off in risk assets, as well as, to a lesser extent, reports that U.K. banks are cancelling dividends.

The ICE BofA Broad Market Index (fixed income) posted its worst month since records began in 1997, underperforming Treasuries by 3.72% in March (prior record was -2.56% in October 2008). While pretty much all sectors underperformed Treasuries, corporate debt was the biggest contributor to the index’s performance in March with a -11.14% excess return, also a record low for the index (prior low was -8.05% in September 2008).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
3/30/2020	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.70%	2.40%	5.20%	5.30%
3/30/2020	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	6.50%	11.50%	6.70%	—
3/30/2020	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-10	-70	1.2	—
3/31/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.40%	0.30%	0.43%	0.41%
3/31/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	3.20%	3.08%	2.85%	2.84%
3/31/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	219.38	218.62	218.73	218.7
3/31/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	3.92%	3.75%	3.66%
3/31/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	212.43	212.59	212.39
3/31/2020	MNI Chicago PMI	40	47.8	49	—
3/31/2020	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	110	120	130.7	132.6
3/31/2020	Conf. Board Expectations	—	88.2	107.8	108.1
3/31/2020	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	167.7	165.1	169.3
4/1/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	15.30%	-29.40%	—
4/1/2020	ADP Employment Change	-150k	-27k	183k	179k
4/1/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	48	48.5	49.2	—
4/1/2020	Construction Spending MoM	0.60%	-1.30%	1.80%	2.80%
4/1/2020	ISM Manufacturing	44.5	49.1	50.1	—
4/1/2020	ISM New Orders	—	42.2	49.8	—
4/1/2020	ISM Prices Paid	41.8	37.4	45.9	—
4/1/2020	ISM Employment	—	43.8	46.9	—
4/1/2020	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	12.00m	—	16.83m	—
4/2/2020	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-26.30%	—
4/2/2020	Trade Balance	-$40.0b	—	-$45.3b	—
4/2/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	3500k	—	3283k	—
4/2/2020	Continuing Claims	4941k	—	1803k	—
4/2/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	59.7	—
4/2/2020	Factory Orders	0.20%	—	-0.50%	—
4/2/2020	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-0.10%	—
4/2/2020	Durable Goods Orders	1.20%	—	1.20%	—
4/2/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.60%	—	-0.60%	—
4/2/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	-0.80%	—	-0.80%	—
4/2/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-0.80%	—	-0.70%	—
4/3/2020	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
4/3/2020	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	-100k	—	273k	—
4/3/2020	Change in Private Payrolls	-123k	—	228k	—
4/3/2020	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	-10k	—	15k	—
4/3/2020	Unemployment Rate	3.80%	—	3.50%	—
4/3/2020	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
4/3/2020	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
4/3/2020	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.2	—	34.4	—
4/3/2020	Labor Force Participation Rate	63.30%	—	63.40%	—
4/3/2020	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
4/3/2020	Markit US Services PMI	38.5	—	39.1	—
4/3/2020	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	40.5	—
4/3/2020	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	43	—	57.3	—

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