A broad-risk off tone is contributing to a flatter Treasury curve, with long-end yields down 8 bps. S&P 500 futures are down 3.25% ahead of the open on the first day of the second quarter, which is perhaps fitting following the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2008. Yesterday’s grim forecast from the White House for potential coronavirus deaths is fueling today’s sell off in risk assets, as well as, to a lesser extent, reports that U.K. banks are cancelling dividends.
The ICE BofA Broad Market Index (fixed income) posted its worst month since records began in 1997, underperforming Treasuries by 3.72% in March (prior record was -2.56% in October 2008). While pretty much all sectors underperformed Treasuries, corporate debt was the biggest contributor to the index’s performance in March with a -11.14% excess return, also a record low for the index (prior low was -8.05% in September 2008).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/30/2020 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -1.70% | 2.40% | 5.20% | 5.30% |
3/30/2020 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 6.50% | 11.50% | 6.70% | — |
3/30/2020 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -10 | -70 | 1.2 | — |
3/31/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.43% | 0.41% |
3/31/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.20% | 3.08% | 2.85% | 2.84% |
3/31/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 219.38 | 218.62 | 218.73 | 218.7 |
3/31/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 3.92% | 3.75% | 3.66% |
3/31/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 212.43 | 212.59 | 212.39 |
3/31/2020 | MNI Chicago PMI | 40 | 47.8 | 49 | — |
3/31/2020 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 110 | 120 | 130.7 | 132.6 |
3/31/2020 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 88.2 | 107.8 | 108.1 |
3/31/2020 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 167.7 | 165.1 | 169.3 |
4/1/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 15.30% | -29.40% | — |
4/1/2020 | ADP Employment Change | -150k | -27k | 183k | 179k |
4/1/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 48 | 48.5 | 49.2 | — |
4/1/2020 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.60% | -1.30% | 1.80% | 2.80% |
4/1/2020 | ISM Manufacturing | 44.5 | 49.1 | 50.1 | — |
4/1/2020 | ISM New Orders | — | 42.2 | 49.8 | — |
4/1/2020 | ISM Prices Paid | 41.8 | 37.4 | 45.9 | — |
4/1/2020 | ISM Employment | — | 43.8 | 46.9 | — |
4/1/2020 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 12.00m | — | 16.83m | — |
4/2/2020 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -26.30% | — |
4/2/2020 | Trade Balance | -$40.0b | — | -$45.3b | — |
4/2/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 3500k | — | 3283k | — |
4/2/2020 | Continuing Claims | 4941k | — | 1803k | — |
4/2/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.7 | — |
4/2/2020 | Factory Orders | 0.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
4/2/2020 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.10% | — |
4/2/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
4/2/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.60% | — | -0.60% | — |
4/2/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.80% | — | -0.80% | — |
4/2/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.80% | — | -0.70% | — |
4/3/2020 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
4/3/2020 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | -100k | — | 273k | — |
4/3/2020 | Change in Private Payrolls | -123k | — | 228k | — |
4/3/2020 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -10k | — | 15k | — |
4/3/2020 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.50% | — |
4/3/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
4/3/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
4/3/2020 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.4 | — |
4/3/2020 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.30% | — | 63.40% | — |
4/3/2020 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.00% | — |
4/3/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 38.5 | — | 39.1 | — |
4/3/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 40.5 | — |
4/3/2020 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 43 | — | 57.3 | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.