April 1, 2022 Headlines

The Treasury curve has shifted higher and flatter following the jobs report. Front-end yields are up roughly 9 bps while the long is up 6 to 7 bps. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 431,000 in March and February’s number was revised higher to 750,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% and the labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.4%. While the increase in payrolls fell short of the median forecast, the report was still a strong one, lending support for a more aggressive rate response from the Fed. The strong labor market has been cited by Fed officials as a reason that the economy could withstand rate hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

03/28/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$106.5b-$106.6b-$107.6b
03/28/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%2.10%0.80%1.10%
03/28/22Retail Inventories MoM1.30%1.10%1.90%
03/28/22Dallas Fed Manf. Activity118.714
03/29/22FHFA House Price Index MoM1.20%1.60%1.20%1.30%
03/29/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.79%1.46%1.43%
03/29/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA18.60%19.10%18.56%18.58%
03/29/22S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.17%18.84%18.88%
03/29/22Conf. Board Consumer Confidence107107.2110.5105.7
03/29/22Conf. Board Present Situation153145.1143
03/29/22Conf. Board Expectations76.687.580.8
03/29/22JOLTS Job Openings11000k11266k11263k11283k
03/30/22MBA Mortgage Applications-6.80%-8.10%
03/30/22ADP Employment Change450k455k475k486k
03/30/22GDP Annualized QoQ7.00%6.90%7.00%
03/30/22Personal Consumption3.10%2.50%3.10%
03/30/22GDP Price Index7.10%7.10%7.10%
03/30/22Core PCE QoQ5.00%5.00%5.00%
03/31/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-30.10%-55.90%
03/31/22Personal Income0.50%0.50%0.00%0.10%
03/31/22Personal Spending0.50%0.20%2.10%2.70%
03/31/22Real Personal Spending-0.20%-0.40%1.50%2.10%
03/31/22PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.60%0.60%0.50%
03/31/22PCE Deflator YoY6.40%6.40%6.10%6.00%
03/31/22PCE Core Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%0.50%
03/31/22PCE Core Deflator YoY5.50%5.40%5.20%
03/31/22Initial Jobless Claims196k202k187k188k
03/31/22Continuing Claims1340k1307k1350k1342k
03/31/22MNI Chicago PMI5762.956.3
04/01/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision95k
04/01/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls490k431k678k750k
04/01/22Change in Private Payrolls496k426k654k739k
04/01/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls32k38k36k38k
04/01/22Unemployment Rate3.70%3.60%3.80%
04/01/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.40%0.00%0.10%
04/01/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.50%5.60%5.10%5.20%
04/01/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.634.7
04/01/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%62.40%62.30%
04/01/22Underemployment Rate6.90%7.20%
04/01/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI58.558.5
04/01/22Construction Spending MoM1.00%1.30%
04/01/22ISM Manufacturing5958.6
04/01/22ISM Prices Paid8075.6
04/01/22ISM New Orders58.561.7
04/01/22ISM Employment53.152.9
04/01/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.40m14.07m

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.