April 1, 2022 Headlines

The Treasury curve has shifted higher and flatter following the jobs report. Front-end yields are up roughly 9 bps while the long is up 6 to 7 bps. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 431,000 in March and February’s number was revised higher to 750,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% and the labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.4%. While the increase in payrolls fell short of the median forecast, the report was still a strong one, lending support for a more aggressive rate response from the Fed. The strong labor market has been cited by Fed officials as a reason that the economy could withstand rate hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/28/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$106.5b	-$106.6b	-$107.6b	—
03/28/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.00%	2.10%	0.80%	1.10%
03/28/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.30%	1.10%	1.90%	—
03/28/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	11	8.7	14	—
03/29/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.20%	1.60%	1.20%	1.30%
03/29/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	1.79%	1.46%	1.43%
03/29/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	18.60%	19.10%	18.56%	18.58%
03/29/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.17%	18.84%	18.88%
03/29/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	107	107.2	110.5	105.7
03/29/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	153	145.1	143
03/29/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	76.6	87.5	80.8
03/29/22	JOLTS Job Openings	11000k	11266k	11263k	11283k
03/30/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.80%	-8.10%	—
03/30/22	ADP Employment Change	450k	455k	475k	486k
03/30/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	7.00%	6.90%	7.00%	—
03/30/22	Personal Consumption	3.10%	2.50%	3.10%	—
03/30/22	GDP Price Index	7.10%	7.10%	7.10%	—
03/30/22	Core PCE QoQ	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—
03/31/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-30.10%	-55.90%	—
03/31/22	Personal Income	0.50%	0.50%	0.00%	0.10%
03/31/22	Personal Spending	0.50%	0.20%	2.10%	2.70%
03/31/22	Real Personal Spending	-0.20%	-0.40%	1.50%	2.10%
03/31/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.60%	0.60%	0.60%	0.50%
03/31/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.40%	6.40%	6.10%	6.00%
03/31/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.50%	—
03/31/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	5.50%	5.40%	5.20%	—
03/31/22	Initial Jobless Claims	196k	202k	187k	188k
03/31/22	Continuing Claims	1340k	1307k	1350k	1342k
03/31/22	MNI Chicago PMI	57	62.9	56.3	—
04/01/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	95k	—	—
04/01/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	490k	431k	678k	750k
04/01/22	Change in Private Payrolls	496k	426k	654k	739k
04/01/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	32k	38k	36k	38k
04/01/22	Unemployment Rate	3.70%	3.60%	3.80%	—
04/01/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.00%	0.10%
04/01/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.50%	5.60%	5.10%	5.20%
04/01/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	34.6	34.7	—
04/01/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.40%	62.40%	62.30%	—
04/01/22	Underemployment Rate	—	6.90%	7.20%	—
04/01/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	58.5	—	58.5	—
04/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	—	1.30%	—
04/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	59	—	58.6	—
04/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	80	—	75.6	—
04/01/22	ISM New Orders	58.5	—	61.7	—
04/01/22	ISM Employment	53.1	—	52.9	—
04/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.40m	—	14.07m	—

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