Risk markets are struggling again this morning following a tweet from President Trump threatening airstrikes in Syria are imminent. S&P 500 futures are down 22 points ahead of the open, and Treasury prices are higher across the curve (10-year yield back down to 2.75%). The president’s airstrike warning was directed at Russia, which has threatened to shoot down any U.S. missiles fired at Syrian government targets. Headline CPI fell 0.1% in March due to a 2.8% decline in energy prices, but excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.2% (as expected). On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 30 bps in March to 2.1%, which was expected given the base effect. In other words, a much weaker March 2017 core reading presented a lower base for a year-over-year comparison in 2018. Nevertheless, there are still no signs of significant inflation pressures in the economy. Instead, gradual growth in consumer prices toward the Fed’s inflation target aligns with the current plan for gradual policy normalization. The minutes from the March 21 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon, and multiple Fed leaders (regional bank presidents) will be speaking at separate events over the next few days. Fixed-income markets remain priced for two more rate hikes in 2018, in line with current Fed guidance/projections.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107 | 104.7 | 107.6 | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.90% | 3.00% | 2.80% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.50% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.70% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.10% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.10% | 1.00% | -1.10% | -1.50% |
| 04/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.90% | -3.30% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.20% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.10% | 2.10% | 1.80% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 249.588 | 249.554 | 248.991 | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 256.2 | 256.2 | 255.751 | — |
| 04/11/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.90% | 0.60% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 04/11/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$186.0b | — | -$215.2b | — |
| 04/11/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 242k | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1843k | — | 1808k | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 04/12/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.2 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6065 | — | 6312 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.5 | — | 101.4 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 121.2 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.8 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 19.6 | — | 22.5 | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | — | 70 | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $119.7b | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $62.1b | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Housing Starts | 1260k | — | 1236k | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.90% | — | -7.00% | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Building Permits | 1325k | — | 1298k | 1321k |
| 04/17/2018 | Building Permits MoM | 0.30% | — | -5.70% | -4.10% |
| 04/17/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.10% | 0.90% |
| 04/17/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | 1.20% | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 78.10% | 77.70% |
| 04/18/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.90% | — |
| 04/18/2018 14:00 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book |