April 12, 2021 Headlines

A mild risk-off tone in equity markets is not enough to push Treasury yields lower this morning, with new supply (3yr and 10yr auctions today) outweighing other concerns for now. Covid concerns abroad are weighing somewhat on sentiment to start the week, and Fed Chair Powell’s 60 Minutes appearance last night reinforced the same narrative that he and his colleagues have been communicating for weeks. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the March CPI report (tomorrow) and March retail sales (Thursday). While core inflation is expected to remain subdued in March (1.5% y/y Bloomberg consensus), the retail sales report is expected to show another big jump in consumption (control group +7.2% m/m). Several Fed leaders will speak this week, including Powell on Wednesday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/12/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$658.0b — -$119.1b —
04/13/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.3 — 95.8 —
04/13/21 CPI MoM 0.50% — 0.40% —
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.10% —
04/13/21 CPI YoY 2.50% — 1.70% —
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.50% — 1.30% —
04/13/21 CPI Index NSA 264.69 — 263.014 —
04/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.983 — 270.299 —
04/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 4.10% —
04/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 3.40% —
04/14/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -5.10% —
04/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 1.00% — 1.30% —
04/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% — 0.50% —
04/14/21 Import Price Index YoY 6.50% — 3.00% —
04/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 1.00% — 1.60% —
04/14/21 Export Price Index YoY — — 5.20% —
04/14/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21 Initial Jobless Claims 700k — 744k —
04/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 5.60% — -3.00% —
04/15/21 Continuing Claims 3700k — 3734k —
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 5.00% — -2.70% —
04/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 20 — 17.4 —
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 6.50% — -3.30% —
04/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 7.20% — -3.50% —
04/15/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 40.9 — 51.8 —
04/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 2.60% — -2.20% —
04/15/21 Capacity Utilization 75.60% — 73.80% —
04/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 3.90% — -3.10% —
04/15/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 51.9 —
04/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% — 0.30% —
04/15/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 84 — 82 —
04/15/21 Total Net TIC Flows — — $106.3b —
04/15/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $90.8b —
04/16/21 Building Permits MoM 1.70% — -10.80% -8.80%
04/16/21 Building Permits 1750k — 1682k 1720k
04/16/21 Housing Starts 1610k — 1421k —
04/16/21 Housing Starts MoM 13.30% — -10.30% —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 89 — 84.9 —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 96 — 93 —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.7 — 79.7 —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.20% — 3.10% —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.80% —

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