April 12, 2021 Headlines

A mild risk-off tone in equity markets is not enough to push Treasury yields lower this morning, with new supply (3yr and 10yr auctions today) outweighing other concerns for now. Covid concerns abroad are weighing somewhat on sentiment to start the week, and Fed Chair Powell’s 60 Minutes appearance last night reinforced the same narrative that he and his colleagues have been communicating for weeks. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the March CPI report (tomorrow) and March retail sales (Thursday). While core inflation is expected to remain subdued in March (1.5% y/y Bloomberg consensus), the retail sales report is expected to show another big jump in consumption (control group +7.2% m/m). Several Fed leaders will speak this week, including Powell on Wednesday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/12/21Monthly Budget Statement-$658.0b-$119.1b
04/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism98.395.8
04/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.40%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
04/13/21CPI YoY2.50%1.70%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.30%
04/13/21CPI Index NSA264.69263.014
04/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.983270.299
04/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%
04/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.40%
04/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%
04/14/21Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.30%
04/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.50%
04/14/21Import Price Index YoY6.50%3.00%
04/14/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.60%
04/14/21Export Price Index YoY5.20%
04/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21Initial Jobless Claims700k744k
04/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM5.60%-3.00%
04/15/21Continuing Claims3700k3734k
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.00%-2.70%
04/15/21Empire Manufacturing2017.4
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas6.50%-3.30%
04/15/21Retail Sales Control Group7.20%-3.50%
04/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook40.951.8
04/15/21Industrial Production MoM2.60%-2.20%
04/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%73.80%
04/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production3.90%-3.10%
04/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.9
04/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.30%
04/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index8482
04/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$106.3b
04/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$90.8b
04/16/21Building Permits MoM1.70%-10.80%-8.80%
04/16/21Building Permits1750k1682k1720k
04/16/21Housing Starts1610k1421k
04/16/21Housing Starts MoM13.30%-10.30%
04/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8984.9
04/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions9693
04/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations85.779.7
04/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%3.10%
04/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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