Treasury prices are lower this morning following a risk on trade catalyzed by news that China saw better than expected growth in lending. As a result, the curve is 5 to 6 bps higher, with the 10-year sitting at 2.55% currently. S&P futures are up 0.64% while Dow futures are 0.87% higher this morning. On the data front, the March reading of the US Import Price Index came in higher than expected at 0.60% vs 0.40%. The increase in import prices was driven primarily by higher fuel costs, which were up 35%. Excluding more volatile components of the index, i.e. fuel and food, the import price index decreased by 0.20% compared to a 0.20% increase in February. Later this morning, the University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment index. The expectation is for a slight decline in the index, down to 98.2 from 98.4.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/08/19Factory Orders-0.50%-0.50%0.10%0.00%
04/08/19Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%-0.20%-0.10%
04/08/19Durable Goods Orders-1.60%-1.60%-1.60%
04/08/19Durables Ex Transportation0.10%-0.10%0.10%
04/08/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%-0.10%
04/08/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.00%
04/09/19NFIB Small Business Optimism102101.8101.7
04/09/19JOLTS Job Openings7550708775817625
04/10/19MBA Mortgage Applications-5.60%18.60%
04/10/19CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
04/10/19CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
04/10/19CPI YoY1.80%1.90%1.50%
04/10/19CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.00%2.10%
04/10/19CPI Core Index SA261.465261.374260.989
04/10/19CPI Index NSA254.167254.202252.776
04/10/19Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.30%1.90%
04/10/19Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.30%1.60%
04/10/19FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/10/19Monthly Budget Statement-$181.0b-$146.9b-$208.7b
04/11/19PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.60%0.10%
04/11/19PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
04/11/19PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%0.10%
04/11/19PPI Final Demand YoY1.90%2.20%1.90%
04/11/19PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%2.50%
04/11/19PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.00%2.30%
04/11/19Initial Jobless Claims210k196k202k204k
04/11/19Continuing Claims1735k1713k1717k1726k
04/11/19SURVEY REPORT: U.S. Economic Forecasts in Apr. 2019
04/11/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.858.9
04/12/19Import Price Index MoM0.40%0.60%0.60%1.00%
04/12/19Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%0.20%0.10%0.20%
04/12/19Import Price Index YoY-0.60%0.00%-1.30%-0.80%
04/12/19Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.70%0.60%0.70%
04/12/19Export Price Index YoY0.60%0.30%
04/12/19U. of Mich. Sentiment98.298.4
04/12/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.3
04/12/19U. of Mich. Expectations88.8
04/12/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
04/12/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%