It was a fairly quiet overnight session, but stocks bounced higher this morning in response to another tweet from President Trump regarding Syria. The president said he never committed to an attack on Syria, and any such action “could be very soon or not so soon at all!” S&P 500 futures are currently up 14 points, and Treasury prices are drifting lower on improved sentiment in risk markets. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes (from March 21 meeting) reflected an optimistic economic tone, with all participants relaying an improved economic outlook in recent months. Consequently, “all participants saw some further firming of the stance on monetary policy as likely to be warranted.” How much firming in necessary is the more difficult question for Fed leaders. It is indeed a balancing act between growth/inflation and monetary policies, and this tightening cycle is even more complicated (unprecedented) given the simultaneous unwinding of quantitative easing.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107 | 104.7 | 107.6 | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.90% | 3.00% | 2.80% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.50% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.70% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.10% | — |
| 04/10/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.10% | 1.00% | -1.10% | -1.50% |
| 04/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.90% | -3.30% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.20% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.10% | 2.10% | 1.80% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 249.588 | 249.554 | 248.991 | — |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 256.2 | 256.2 | 255.751 | — |
| 04/11/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.90% | 0.60% | — |
| 04/11/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 04/11/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$186.0b | -$208.7b | -$176.2b | — |
| 04/11/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 233k | 242k | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1843k | 1871k | 1808k | 1818k |
| 04/12/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 04/12/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 04/12/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.80% | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.40% |
| 04/12/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/12/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.40% | 3.30% | 3.20% |
| 04/12/2018 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 04/12/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.2 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6000 | — | 6312 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.5 | — | 101.4 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 121.2 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.8 | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 04/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 19 | — | 22.5 | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | — | 70 | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $119.7b | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $62.1b | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Housing Starts | 1270k | — | 1236k | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.80% | — | -7.00% | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Building Permits | 1320k | — | 1298k | 1321k |
| 04/17/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -0.10% | — | -5.70% | -4.10% |
| 04/17/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.10% | 0.90% |
| 04/17/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 04/17/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.00% | — | 78.10% | 77.70% |
| 04/18/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.90% | — |
| 04/18/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 04/19/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 233k | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1871k | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.4 | — | 22.3 | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 56 | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | — | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Leading Index | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |