It was a fairly quiet overnight session, but stocks bounced higher this morning in response to another tweet from President Trump regarding Syria. The president said he never committed to an attack on Syria, and any such action “could be very soon or not so soon at all!” S&P 500 futures are currently up 14 points, and Treasury prices are drifting lower on improved sentiment in risk markets. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes (from March 21 meeting) reflected an optimistic economic tone, with all participants relaying an improved economic outlook in recent months. Consequently, “all participants saw some further firming of the stance on monetary policy as likely to be warranted.” How much firming in necessary is the more difficult question for Fed leaders. It is indeed a balancing act between growth/inflation and monetary policies, and this tightening cycle is even more complicated (unprecedented) given the simultaneous unwinding of quantitative easing.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
04/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107104.7107.6
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.30%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.90%3.00%2.80%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.70%2.50%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.70%
04/10/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.00%1.10%
04/10/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%1.00%-1.10%-1.50%
04/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%-3.30%
04/11/2018CPI MoM0.00%-0.10%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI YoY2.40%2.40%2.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.10%1.80%
04/11/2018CPI Index NSA249.588249.554248.991
04/11/2018CPI Core Index SA256.2256.2255.751
04/11/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%0.60%
04/11/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.40%0.30%
04/11/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$186.0b-$208.7b-$176.2b
04/11/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims230k233k242k
04/12/2018Continuing Claims1843k1871k1808k1818k
04/12/2018Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.00%0.40%0.30%
04/12/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%0.50%0.40%
04/12/2018Import Price Index YoY3.80%3.60%3.50%3.40%
04/12/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%
04/12/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%3.30%3.20%
04/12/2018Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey (Table)    
04/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.2
04/13/2018JOLTS Job Openings60006312
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment100.5101.4
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions121.2
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Expectations88.8
04/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
04/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
04/16/2018Empire Manufacturing1922.5
04/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%-0.10%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.20%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.10%
04/16/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.60%
04/16/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7070
04/16/2018Total Net TIC Flows$119.7b
04/16/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$62.1b
04/17/2018Housing Starts1270k1236k
04/17/2018Housing Starts MoM2.80%-7.00%
04/17/2018Building Permits1320k1298k1321k
04/17/2018Building Permits MoM-0.10%-5.70%-4.10%
04/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%1.10%0.90%
04/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%1.20%
04/17/2018Capacity Utilization78.00%78.10%77.70%
04/18/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
04/18/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/19/2018Initial Jobless Claims233k
04/19/2018Continuing Claims1871k
04/19/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook21.422.3
04/19/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
04/19/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
04/19/2018Leading Index0.30%0.60%