News that the FDA is pausing distribution of the J&J vaccine is contributing to slightly lower Treasury yields this morning despite an upside surprise in the March CPI report. U.S. equity futures are mixed ahead of the open (Dow -0.24%, NASDAQ +0.29%). Headline CPI rose 0.6% m/m in March (0.5% expected), and core prices were up 0.3% m/m (0.2% expected). On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 1.6%, up 30 bps from the prior month. Increases in year-over-year comparisons are to be expected in the coming months due to the base effect, but the monthly gains for March were still elevated. The price gains were relatively broad based across categories, and the increase in shelter prices, which accounted for approximately 1/3rd of the overall gain in core prices, was largely impacted by the hotel sector.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
04/12/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$658.0b | -$659.6b | -$119.1b | — |
04/13/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.5 | 98.2 | 95.8 | — |
04/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.40% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | 2.60% | 1.70% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.30% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 264.7 | 264.877 | 263.014 | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.97 | 271.214 | 270.299 | — |
04/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 3.90% | 4.10% | — |
04/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.50% | 3.40% | — |
04/14/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.10% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.90% | — | 1.30% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | 6.40% | — | 3.00% | — |
04/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.60% | — |
04/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 5.20% | — |
04/14/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
04/15/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 700k | — | 744k | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 5.70% | — | -3.00% | — |
04/15/21 | Continuing Claims | 3700k | — | 3734k | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 5.00% | — | -2.70% | — |
04/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 19.2 | — | 17.4 | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 6.40% | — | -3.30% | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 7.20% | — | -3.50% | — |
04/15/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 40.9 | — | 51.8 | — |
04/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 2.50% | — | -2.20% | — |
04/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 75.60% | — | 73.80% | — |
04/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 3.60% | — | -3.10% | — |
04/15/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 51.9 | — |
04/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
04/15/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 84 | — | 82 | — |
04/15/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $106.3b | — |
04/15/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $90.8b | — |
04/16/21 | Building Permits MoM | 1.70% | — | -10.80% | -8.80% |
04/16/21 | Building Permits | 1750k | — | 1682k | 1720k |
04/16/21 | Housing Starts | 1611k | — | 1421k | — |
04/16/21 | Housing Starts MoM | 13.40% | — | -10.30% | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 89 | — | 84.9 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 96 | — | 93 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85 | — | 79.7 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.10% | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
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