April 13, 2021 Headlines

News that the FDA is pausing distribution of the J&J vaccine is contributing to slightly lower Treasury yields this morning despite an upside surprise in the March CPI report. U.S. equity futures are mixed ahead of the open (Dow -0.24%, NASDAQ +0.29%). Headline CPI rose 0.6% m/m in March (0.5% expected), and core prices were up 0.3% m/m (0.2% expected). On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 1.6%, up 30 bps from the prior month. Increases in year-over-year comparisons are to be expected in the coming months due to the base effect, but the monthly gains for March were still elevated. The price gains were relatively broad based across categories, and the increase in shelter prices, which accounted for approximately 1/3rd of the overall gain in core prices, was largely impacted by the hotel sector.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/12/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$658.0b -$659.6b -$119.1b
04/13/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.5 98.2 95.8
04/13/21 CPI MoM 0.50% 0.60% 0.40%
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
04/13/21 CPI YoY 2.50% 2.60% 1.70%
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.50% 1.60% 1.30%
04/13/21 CPI Index NSA 264.7 264.877 263.014
04/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.97 271.214 270.299
04/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 3.90% 4.10%
04/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.50% 3.40%
04/14/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.10%
04/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.90% 1.30%
04/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% 0.50%
04/14/21 Import Price Index YoY 6.40% 3.00%
04/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.60%
04/14/21 Export Price Index YoY 5.20%
04/14/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21 Initial Jobless Claims 700k 744k
04/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 5.70% -3.00%
04/15/21 Continuing Claims 3700k 3734k
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 5.00% -2.70%
04/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 19.2 17.4
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 6.40% -3.30%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 7.20% -3.50%
04/15/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 40.9 51.8
04/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 2.50% -2.20%
04/15/21 Capacity Utilization 75.60% 73.80%
04/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 3.60% -3.10%
04/15/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 51.9
04/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.30%
04/15/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 84 82
04/15/21 Total Net TIC Flows $106.3b
04/15/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows $90.8b
04/16/21 Building Permits MoM 1.70% -10.80% -8.80%
04/16/21 Building Permits 1750k 1682k 1720k
04/16/21 Housing Starts 1611k 1421k
04/16/21 Housing Starts MoM 13.40% -10.30%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 89 84.9
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 96 93
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 85 79.7
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.10%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80%

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