April 13, 2021 Headlines

News that the FDA is pausing distribution of the J&J vaccine is contributing to slightly lower Treasury yields this morning despite an upside surprise in the March CPI report. U.S. equity futures are mixed ahead of the open (Dow -0.24%, NASDAQ +0.29%). Headline CPI rose 0.6% m/m in March (0.5% expected), and core prices were up 0.3% m/m (0.2% expected). On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 1.6%, up 30 bps from the prior month. Increases in year-over-year comparisons are to be expected in the coming months due to the base effect, but the monthly gains for March were still elevated. The price gains were relatively broad based across categories, and the increase in shelter prices, which accounted for approximately 1/3rd of the overall gain in core prices, was largely impacted by the hotel sector.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

04/12/21Monthly Budget Statement-$658.0b-$659.6b-$119.1b
04/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism98.598.295.8
04/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.60%0.40%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
04/13/21CPI YoY2.50%2.60%1.70%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%1.30%
04/13/21CPI Index NSA264.7264.877263.014
04/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.97271.214270.299
04/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY3.90%4.10%
04/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%3.40%
04/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%
04/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.90%1.30%
04/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.50%
04/14/21Import Price Index YoY6.40%3.00%
04/14/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.60%
04/14/21Export Price Index YoY5.20%
04/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21Initial Jobless Claims700k744k
04/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM5.70%-3.00%
04/15/21Continuing Claims3700k3734k
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.00%-2.70%
04/15/21Empire Manufacturing19.217.4
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas6.40%-3.30%
04/15/21Retail Sales Control Group7.20%-3.50%
04/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook40.951.8
04/15/21Industrial Production MoM2.50%-2.20%
04/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%73.80%
04/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production3.60%-3.10%
04/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.9
04/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.30%
04/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index8482
04/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$106.3b
04/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$90.8b
04/16/21Building Permits MoM1.70%-10.80%-8.80%
04/16/21Building Permits1750k1682k1720k
04/16/21Housing Starts1611k1421k
04/16/21Housing Starts MoM13.40%-10.30%
04/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8984.9
04/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions9693
04/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations8579.7
04/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%3.10%
04/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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