April 13, 2022 Headlines

The curve is steepening this morning with long-end yields up 2 to 3 bps while the front-end is only up roughly a basis point. PPI came in higher than expected in March, up 1.4% m/m vs the median forecast of 1.1%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 1.0% m/m vs an expected 0.5%. Today’s PPI reading coupled with yesterday’s CPI release maintains pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, something that Fed officials have mentioned as a possibility at next month’s FOMC meeting.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

04/12/22NFIB Small Business Optimism9593.295.7
04/12/22CPI MoM1.20%1.20%0.80%
04/12/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.30%0.50%
04/12/22CPI YoY8.40%8.50%7.90%
04/12/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.60%6.50%6.40%
04/12/22CPI Index NSA287.406287.504283.716
04/12/22CPI Core Index SA289.2288.811287.878
04/12/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.70%-2.60%-2.50%
04/12/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.60%-2.30%-2.20%
04/12/22Monthly Budget Statement-$190.0b-$192.7b-$659.6b
04/13/22MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%-6.30%
04/13/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.90%0.20%
04/13/22PPI Final Demand MoM1.10%1.40%0.80%0.90%
04/13/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%1.00%0.20%0.40%
04/13/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.60%11.20%10.00%10.30%
04/13/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.40%9.20%8.40%
04/13/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.60%7.00%6.60%6.70%
04/14/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%0.30%
04/14/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.00%0.20%
04/14/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%-0.40%
04/14/22Retail Sales Control Group0.00%-1.20%
04/14/22Import Price Index MoM2.30%1.40%
04/14/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM1.00%0.70%
04/14/22Import Price Index YoY11.80%10.90%
04/14/22Export Price Index MoM2.20%3.00%
04/14/22Export Price Index YoY16.60%
04/14/22Initial Jobless Claims170k166k
04/14/22Continuing Claims1500k1523k
04/14/22Business Inventories1.30%1.10%
04/14/22U. of Mich. Sentiment5959.4
04/14/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions6767.2
04/14/22U. of Mich. Expectations5454.3
04/14/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.50%5.40%
04/14/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
04/15/22Empire Manufacturing1-11.8
04/15/22Industrial Production MoM0.40%0.50%
04/15/22Capacity Utilization77.80%77.60%
04/15/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%1.20%
04/15/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$58.8b
04/15/22Total Net TIC Flows$294.2b


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