April 13, 2022 Headlines

The curve is steepening this morning with long-end yields up 2 to 3 bps while the front-end is only up roughly a basis point. PPI came in higher than expected in March, up 1.4% m/m vs the median forecast of 1.1%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 1.0% m/m vs an expected 0.5%. Today’s PPI reading coupled with yesterday’s CPI release maintains pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, something that Fed officials have mentioned as a possibility at next month’s FOMC meeting.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
04/12/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	95	93.2	95.7	—
04/12/22	CPI MoM	1.20%	1.20%	0.80%	—
04/12/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	0.30%	0.50%	—
04/12/22	CPI YoY	8.40%	8.50%	7.90%	—
04/12/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.60%	6.50%	6.40%	—
04/12/22	CPI Index NSA	287.406	287.504	283.716	—
04/12/22	CPI Core Index SA	289.2	288.811	287.878	—
04/12/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-2.70%	-2.60%	-2.50%
04/12/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.60%	-2.30%	-2.20%
04/12/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$190.0b	-$192.7b	-$659.6b	—
04/13/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.30%	-6.30%	—
04/13/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.50%	0.90%	0.20%	—
04/13/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	1.10%	1.40%	0.80%	0.90%
04/13/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	1.00%	0.20%	0.40%
04/13/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.60%	11.20%	10.00%	10.30%
04/13/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.40%	9.20%	8.40%	—
04/13/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.60%	7.00%	6.60%	6.70%
04/14/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.60%	—	0.30%	—
04/14/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	1.00%	—	0.20%	—
04/14/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	—	-0.40%	—
04/14/22	Retail Sales Control Group	0.00%	—	-1.20%	—
04/14/22	Import Price Index MoM	2.30%	—	1.40%	—
04/14/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	1.00%	—	0.70%	—
04/14/22	Import Price Index YoY	11.80%	—	10.90%	—
04/14/22	Export Price Index MoM	2.20%	—	3.00%	—
04/14/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	16.60%	—
04/14/22	Initial Jobless Claims	170k	—	166k	—
04/14/22	Continuing Claims	1500k	—	1523k	—
04/14/22	Business Inventories	1.30%	—	1.10%	—
04/14/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	59	—	59.4	—
04/14/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	67	—	67.2	—
04/14/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	54	—	54.3	—
04/14/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.50%	—	5.40%	—
04/14/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
04/15/22	Empire Manufacturing	1	—	-11.8	—
04/15/22	Industrial Production MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
04/15/22	Capacity Utilization	77.80%	—	77.60%	—
04/15/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.60%	—	1.20%	—
04/15/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$58.8b	—
04/15/22	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$294.2b	—

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