Treasury prices are unchanged across the curve following a relatively quiet overnight session, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 14 points in response to strong Q1 earnings reports and a lack of major (negative) macro headlines. The slope of the Treasury curve (2-year/10-year spread) continues to hold near a post-crisis low of 0.48%, and investment-grade credit spreads have firmed 3-5 basis points since the end of March (widened 25 bps the prior two months). Three regional Fed bank presidents will speak this morning (Rosengren, Bullard, and Kaplan), and the JOLTS job openings data for February will be released later this morning. Next week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the March retail sales report, but the markets will likely remain more focused on headlines related to the Mueller investigation, trade tensions, and Syria.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
04/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107104.7107.6
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.30%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.90%3.00%2.80%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.70%2.50%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.70%
04/10/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.00%1.10%
04/10/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%1.00%-1.10%-1.50%
04/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%-3.30%
04/11/2018CPI MoM0.00%-0.10%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI YoY2.40%2.40%2.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.10%1.80%
04/11/2018CPI Index NSA249.588249.554248.991
04/11/2018CPI Core Index SA256.2256.2255.751
04/11/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%0.60%
04/11/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.40%0.30%
04/11/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$186.0b-$208.7b-$176.2b
04/11/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims230k233k242k
04/12/2018Continuing Claims1843k1871k1808k1818k
04/12/2018Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.00%0.40%0.30%
04/12/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%0.50%0.40%
04/12/2018Import Price Index YoY3.80%3.60%3.50%3.40%
04/12/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%
04/12/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%3.30%3.20%
04/12/2018Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey (Table)
04/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort5857.2
04/13/2018JOLTS Job Openings60246312
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment100.4101.4
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions121.2
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Expectations88.8
04/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
04/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
04/16/2018Empire Manufacturing18.222.5
04/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%-0.10%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.20%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.10%
04/16/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.60%
04/16/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7070
04/16/2018Total Net TIC Flows$119.7b
04/16/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$62.1b
04/17/2018Housing Starts1271k1236k
04/17/2018Housing Starts MoM2.80%-7.00%
04/17/2018Building Permits1330k1298k1321k
04/17/2018Building Permits MoM0.70%-5.70%-4.10%
04/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%1.10%0.90%
04/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%1.20%
04/17/2018Capacity Utilization77.90%78.10%77.70%
04/18/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
04/18/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/19/2018Initial Jobless Claims226k233k
04/19/2018Continuing Claims1871k
04/19/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook20.122.3
04/19/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
04/19/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
04/19/2018Leading Index0.30%0.60%