April 15, 2020 Headlines

Risk-off sentiment re-emerged overnight, pushing Treasury prices and higher and global equities lower. The yield curve is flatter, with long-end yields down 8-10 bps, and S&P 500 futures are down 2.6% ahead of the open.  WTI oil futures are back below $20 per barrel after the IAE warned that the recent OPEC+ agreement to cut production by 10% is not enough to offset the demand shock caused by COVID-19 lockdowns. For added perspective, the 10% cut is approximately double what was done during the 2008 financial crisis. March retail sales plunged 8.7% (-8% expected), but control group sales (excludes food, gas, autos, and building materials) were actually up 1.7% on the month (-2% expected). The control group figure is used in the GDP calculation, which suggests some of the most severe estimates of GDP declines may be overdone. That said, the current data trend is expectedly weak, and Q2 growth figures will be historically bad. On that note, the Empire Manufacturing Index fell to -78.2 in April (-35 expected), more than doubling the previous low in February 2009 (records began in 2000).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/15/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—7.30%-17.90%—
4/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-8.00%-8.70%-0.50%-0.40%
4/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-5.00%-4.50%-0.40%—
4/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-5.20%-3.10%-0.20%—
4/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-2.00%1.70%0.00%-0.20%
4/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-35-78.2-21.5—
4/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-4.00%-5.40%0.60%0.50%
4/15/2020Capacity Utilization74.00%72.70%77.00%—
4/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-4.10%-6.30%0.10%-0.10%
4/15/2020Business Inventories-0.40%—-0.10%—
4/15/2020NAHB Housing Market Index55—72—
4/15/2020U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows——$20.9b—
4/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows——$122.9b—
4/16/2020Housing Starts1300k—1599k—
4/16/2020Housing Starts MoM-18.70%—-1.50%—
4/16/2020Building Permits1296k—1464k1452k
4/16/2020Building Permits MoM-10.70%—-5.50%-6.30%
4/16/2020Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-32—-12.7—
4/16/2020Initial Jobless Claims5462k—6606k—
4/16/2020Continuing Claims13260k—7455k—
4/16/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——49.9—
4/17/2020Leading Index-7.10%—0.10%—

 

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