April 15, 2021 Headlines

Better demand from Asian investors overnight is pushing Treasury prices higher across the curve despite a positive tone in risk markets this morning. U.S. tensions with Russia is likely one contributor to the rally in Treasuries, as the White House just announced fresh sanctions for “harmful foreign activities by the Russian government.” 

Another round of strong economic data was released this morning. Initial jobless claims dropped to 576,000 last week, the lowest reading since mid-March last year before broad lockdowns were initiated. March retail sales beat elevated expectations for the most part as well. Headline sales were up 9.8% m/m (5.8% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation was up 6.9%. (7.2% expected). Food and drink sales were up 13.4% in March, signaling recovery in the restaurant industry.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

04/12/21Monthly Budget Statement-$658.0b-$659.6b-$119.1b
04/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism98.598.295.8
04/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.60%0.40%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
04/13/21CPI YoY2.50%2.60%1.70%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%1.30%
04/13/21CPI Index NSA264.7264.877263.014
04/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.97271.214270.299
04/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY3.90%4.10%
04/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%3.40%
04/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.70%-5.10%
04/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.90%1.20%1.30%
04/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.90%0.50%
04/14/21Import Price Index YoY6.40%6.90%3.00%3.10%
04/14/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%2.10%1.60%
04/14/21Export Price Index YoY9.10%5.20%5.30%
04/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21Empire Manufacturing2026.317.4
04/15/21Initial Jobless Claims700k576k744k769k
04/15/21Continuing Claims3700k3731k3734k3727k
04/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM5.80%9.80%-3.00%-2.70%
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.00%8.40%-2.70%-2.50%
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas6.40%8.20%-3.30%-3.10%
04/15/21Retail Sales Control Group7.20%6.90%-3.50%-3.40%
04/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook41.550.251.844.5
04/15/21Industrial Production MoM2.50%-2.20%
04/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%73.80%
04/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production3.60%-3.10%
04/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.9
04/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.30%
04/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index8382
04/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$106.3b
04/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$90.8b
04/16/21Housing Starts1611k1421k
04/16/21Building Permits1750k1682k1720k
04/16/21Housing Starts MoM13.40%-10.30%
04/16/21Building Permits MoM1.70%-10.80%-8.80%
04/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8984.9
04/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions9693
04/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations8579.7
04/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%3.10%
04/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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