April 15, 2021 Headlines

Better demand from Asian investors overnight is pushing Treasury prices higher across the curve despite a positive tone in risk markets this morning. U.S. tensions with Russia is likely one contributor to the rally in Treasuries, as the White House just announced fresh sanctions for “harmful foreign activities by the Russian government.” 

Another round of strong economic data was released this morning. Initial jobless claims dropped to 576,000 last week, the lowest reading since mid-March last year before broad lockdowns were initiated. March retail sales beat elevated expectations for the most part as well. Headline sales were up 9.8% m/m (5.8% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation was up 6.9%. (7.2% expected). Food and drink sales were up 13.4% in March, signaling recovery in the restaurant industry.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/12/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$658.0b -$659.6b -$119.1b —
04/13/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.5 98.2 95.8 —
04/13/21 CPI MoM 0.50% 0.60% 0.40% —
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.10% —
04/13/21 CPI YoY 2.50% 2.60% 1.70% —
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.50% 1.60% 1.30% —
04/13/21 CPI Index NSA 264.7 264.877 263.014 —
04/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.97 271.214 270.299 —
04/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — 3.90% 4.10% —
04/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — 1.50% 3.40% —
04/14/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -3.70% -5.10% —
04/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.90% 1.20% 1.30% —
04/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.40% 0.90% 0.50% —
04/14/21 Import Price Index YoY 6.40% 6.90% 3.00% 3.10%
04/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 1.00% 2.10% 1.60% —
04/14/21 Export Price Index YoY — 9.10% 5.20% 5.30%
04/14/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 20 26.3 17.4 —
04/15/21 Initial Jobless Claims 700k 576k 744k 769k
04/15/21 Continuing Claims 3700k 3731k 3734k 3727k
04/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 5.80% 9.80% -3.00% -2.70%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 5.00% 8.40% -2.70% -2.50%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 6.40% 8.20% -3.30% -3.10%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 7.20% 6.90% -3.50% -3.40%
04/15/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 41.5 50.2 51.8 44.5
04/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 2.50% — -2.20% —
04/15/21 Capacity Utilization 75.60% — 73.80% —
04/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 3.60% — -3.10% —
04/15/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 51.9 —
04/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% — 0.30% —
04/15/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 83 — 82 —
04/15/21 Total Net TIC Flows — — $106.3b —
04/15/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $90.8b —
04/16/21 Housing Starts 1611k — 1421k —
04/16/21 Building Permits 1750k — 1682k 1720k
04/16/21 Housing Starts MoM 13.40% — -10.30% —
04/16/21 Building Permits MoM 1.70% — -10.80% -8.80%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 89 — 84.9 —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 96 — 93 —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 85 — 79.7 —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% — 3.10% —
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.80% —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.