Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the week following a quiet news cycle over the weekend. Recent articles suggest a U.S./China trade deal is imminent, with an announcement potentially as early as this week. According to Reuters, the U.S. has relented on some of its core demands, such as limiting Chinese government subsidies for industrial companies, which Chinese officials see as critical for long-term economic development. However, the article suggests that China is willing to end forced technology transfers for foreign companies doing business in China, as well as improve intellectual property protection. On the global data front, Eurozone inflation expectations fell to three-year lows, which puts more pressure on ECB officials to be more accommodative with monetary policy. This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by the March retail sales report (Thursday), and several Fed leaders will speak this week, beginning with Evans (Chicago Fed) and Rosengren (Boston Fed) later today.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/15/19 | Empire Manufacturing | 8 | 10.1 | 3.7 | — |
| 04/15/19 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.2b | — |
| 04/15/19 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$143.7b | — |
| 04/16/19 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 04/16/19 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 04/16/19 | Capacity Utilization | 79.20% | — | 78.20% | 79.10% |
| 04/16/19 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 63 | — | 62 | — |
| 04/17/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.60% | — |
| 04/17/19 | Trade Balance | -$53.5b | — | -$51.1b | — |
| 04/17/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 04/17/19 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 04/17/19 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 11 | — | 13.7 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 196k | — |
| 04/18/19 | Continuing Claims | 1722k | — | 1713k | — |
| 04/18/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.8 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 47.5 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Leading Index | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 04/19/19 | Housing Starts | 1230k | — | 1162k | — |
| 04/19/19 | Housing Starts MoM | 5.90% | — | -8.70% | — |
| 04/19/19 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1296k | 1291k |
| 04/19/19 | Building Permits MoM | 0.70% | — | -1.60% | -2.00% |