Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the week following a quiet news cycle over the weekend. Recent articles suggest a U.S./China trade deal is imminent, with an announcement potentially as early as this week. According to Reuters, the U.S. has relented on some of its core demands, such as limiting Chinese government subsidies for industrial companies, which Chinese officials see as critical for long-term economic development. However, the article suggests that China is willing to end forced technology transfers for foreign companies doing business in China, as well as improve intellectual property protection. On the global data front, Eurozone inflation expectations fell to three-year lows, which puts more pressure on ECB officials to be more accommodative with monetary policy. This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by the March retail sales report (Thursday), and several Fed leaders will speak this week, beginning with Evans (Chicago Fed) and Rosengren (Boston Fed) later today.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
04/15/19Empire Manufacturing810.13.7
04/15/19Net Long-term TIC Flows-$7.2b
04/15/19Total Net TIC Flows-$143.7b
04/16/19Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
04/16/19Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%-0.40%
04/16/19Capacity Utilization79.20%78.20%79.10%
04/16/19NAHB Housing Market Index6362
04/17/19MBA Mortgage Applications-5.60%
04/17/19Trade Balance-$53.5b-$51.1b
04/17/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%1.20%
04/17/19Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%
04/17/19U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/18/19Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%-0.20%
04/18/19Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%-0.40%
04/18/19Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%-0.60%
04/18/19Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-0.20%
04/18/19Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1113.7
04/18/19Initial Jobless Claims205k196k
04/18/19Continuing Claims1722k1713k
04/18/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.8
04/18/19Bloomberg Economic Expectations47.5
04/18/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.852.4
04/18/19Markit US Services PMI5555.3
04/18/19Markit US Composite PMI54.6
04/18/19Leading Index0.40%0.20%
04/18/19Business Inventories0.30%0.80%
04/19/19Housing Starts1230k1162k
04/19/19Housing Starts MoM5.90%-8.70%
04/19/19Building Permits1300k1296k1291k
04/19/19Building Permits MoM0.70%-1.60%-2.00%