Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the week following a quiet news cycle over the weekend. Recent articles suggest a U.S./China trade deal is imminent, with an announcement potentially as early as this week. According to Reuters, the U.S. has relented on some of its core demands, such as limiting Chinese government subsidies for industrial companies, which Chinese officials see as critical for long-term economic development. However, the article suggests that China is willing to end forced technology transfers for foreign companies doing business in China, as well as improve intellectual property protection. On the global data front, Eurozone inflation expectations fell to three-year lows, which puts more pressure on ECB officials to be more accommodative with monetary policy. This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by the March retail sales report (Thursday), and several Fed leaders will speak this week, beginning with Evans (Chicago Fed) and Rosengren (Boston Fed) later today.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/15/19 Empire Manufacturing 8 10.1 3.7
04/15/19 Net Long-term TIC Flows -$7.2b
04/15/19 Total Net TIC Flows -$143.7b
04/16/19 Industrial Production MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
04/16/19 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% -0.40%
04/16/19 Capacity Utilization 79.20% 78.20% 79.10%
04/16/19 NAHB Housing Market Index 63 62
04/17/19 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.60%
04/17/19 Trade Balance -$53.5b -$51.1b
04/17/19 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.30% 1.20%
04/17/19 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50%
04/17/19 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/18/19 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% -0.20%
04/18/19 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.70% -0.40%
04/18/19 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% -0.60%
04/18/19 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% -0.20%
04/18/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 11 13.7
04/18/19 Initial Jobless Claims 205k 196k
04/18/19 Continuing Claims 1722k 1713k
04/18/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.8
04/18/19 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 47.5
04/18/19 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.4
04/18/19 Markit US Services PMI 55 55.3
04/18/19 Markit US Composite PMI 54.6
04/18/19 Leading Index 0.40% 0.20%
04/18/19 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.80%
04/19/19 Housing Starts 1230k 1162k
04/19/19 Housing Starts MoM 5.90% -8.70%
04/19/19 Building Permits 1300k 1296k 1291k
04/19/19 Building Permits MoM 0.70% -1.60% -2.00%