April 16, 2020 Headlines

US Treasury prices were initially lower in the overnight session on the back of heavy European government bond supply and reports that the US is now past the peak of the virus outbreak. However, the move reversed course as Prime Minister Abe expanded the state of emergency in Japan to cover the whole country. The 10-year yield is down 2.8bps to .60% with the curve modestly flatter (41bps 2-10s) and S&P500 futures are up .66% ahead of the open. Initial jobless claims for last week came in below expectations at 5.2mm as Good Friday possibly delayed applications. To account for those receiving benefits, continuing claims rose to 12mm or 8.2% of the labor force compared to 5.1% the previous week. The previous high was 7% back in May 1970. Governors have started exploring how and when to reopen their economies to being providing relief.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-1.90%-1.60%-1.10%—
4/14/2020Export Price Index YoY—-3.60%-1.30%—
4/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-3.20%-2.30%-0.50%-0.70%
4/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.10%0.20%—
4/14/2020Import Price Index YoY-5.00%-4.10%-1.20%-1.30%
4/15/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—7.30%-17.90%—
4/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-8.00%-8.70%-0.50%-0.40%
4/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-5.00%-4.50%-0.40%—
4/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-5.20%-3.10%-0.20%—
4/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-2.00%1.70%0.00%-0.20%
4/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-35-78.2-21.5—
4/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-4.00%-5.40%0.60%0.50%
4/15/2020Capacity Utilization74.00%72.70%77.00%—
4/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-4.10%-6.30%0.10%-0.10%
4/15/2020Business Inventories-0.40%-0.40%-0.10%-0.30%
4/15/2020NAHB Housing Market Index553072—
4/15/2020U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows—$49.4b$20.9b$21.8b
4/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows—-$13.4b$122.9b$127.3b
4/16/2020Housing Starts1300k1216k1599k1564k
4/16/2020Housing Starts MoM-18.70%-22.30%-1.50%-3.40%
4/16/2020Building Permits1296k1353k1464k1452k
4/16/2020Building Permits MoM-10.70%-6.80%-5.50%-6.30%
4/16/2020Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-32-56.6-12.7—
4/16/2020Initial Jobless Claims5500k5245k6606k6615k
4/16/2020Continuing Claims13260k11976k7455k7446k
4/16/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—44.549.9—
4/17/2020Leading Index-7.20%—0.10%—

 

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