An improved tone in global risk markets is pushing Treasury yields slightly higher this morning. Most major equity indices are higher on the day, albeit modestly, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.35%. There weren’t really any major headlines overnight, but a couple of positive earnings reports from the financial sector (Blackrock and BofA) and dovish Fed comments were received well by equity investors. Fed officials continue to express angst toward persistent, below-target inflation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans suggested yesterday that a rate cut may be needed even if growth remains strong, and he said the Fed should “communicate comfort” with inflation moving modestly above its target. Rosengren discussed shifting away from a discrete 2% inflation target to more of a target range. “We might be forced to accept below-2% inflation during recessions, but we would commit to achieving above-2% inflation in good times,” Rosengren said in his prepared remarks. To be fair, both Rosengren and Evans are noted doves at the Fed, but the idea of average inflation targeting by the Fed has been gaining momentum this year. The Fed will host a conference June 4-5 to review all strategies, tools, and communication practices to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/15/19 | Empire Manufacturing | 8 | 10.1 | 3.7 | — |
| 04/15/19 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $51.9b | -$7.2b | — |
| 04/15/19 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$21.6b | -$143.7b | — |
| 04/16/19 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 04/16/19 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 04/16/19 | Capacity Utilization | 79.20% | — | 78.20% | 79.10% |
| 04/16/19 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 63 | — | 62 | — |
| 04/17/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.60% | — |
| 04/17/19 | Trade Balance | -$53.5b | — | -$51.1b | — |
| 04/17/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 04/17/19 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 04/17/19 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 11 | — | 13.7 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 196k | — |
| 04/18/19 | Continuing Claims | 1722k | — | 1713k | — |
| 04/18/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.8 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 47.5 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Leading Index | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 04/19/19 | Housing Starts | 1230k | — | 1162k | — |
| 04/19/19 | Housing Starts MoM | 5.90% | — | -8.70% | — |
| 04/19/19 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1296k | 1291k |
| 04/19/19 | Building Permits MoM | 0.70% | — | -1.60% | -2.00% |