Risk markets were positive overnight on the perception that the Syrian missile strikes were an isolated event and not the start of a prolonged military campaign. S&P 500 futures are currently up 15 points, and the Treasury curve is modestly steeper. Investors remain anxious of the three primary macro headwinds (geopolitics, trade tensions, and the Trump/Cohen investigation), but at the same time, the economic data trend and corporate earnings remain solid. Regarding the data trend, March retail sales were largely in line with expectations. Headline sales were boosted by strong auto sales (0.6% vs. 0.4% expected), and the control group matched expectations with a 0.4% gain. The control group is used in the GDP calculation, and the March reading was the first positive figure since last November. The data calendar is relatively light for the rest of the week, but there will be several Fed leaders speaking this week, including Fed Governor Randal Quarles (Vice Chair for Bank Supervision) testifying before Congressional committees.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
04/16/2018Empire Manufacturing18.415.822.5
04/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.60%-0.10%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%0.30%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/16/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.60%
04/16/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7070
04/16/2018Total Net TIC Flows$119.7b
04/16/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$62.1b
04/17/2018Housing Starts1267k1236k
04/17/2018Housing Starts MoM2.50%-7.00%
04/17/2018Building Permits1323k1298k1321k
04/17/2018Building Permits MoM0.20%-5.70%-4.10%
04/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.40%1.10%0.90%
04/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%1.20%
04/17/2018Capacity Utilization77.90%78.10%77.70%
04/18/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
04/18/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/19/2018Initial Jobless Claims230k233k
04/19/2018Continuing Claims1845k1871k
04/19/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2122.3
04/19/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
04/19/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
04/19/2018Leading Index0.30%0.60%
04/23/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.88
04/23/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.655.6
04/23/2018Markit US Services PMI5454
04/23/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.2
04/23/2018Existing Home Sales5.57m5.54m
04/23/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.50%3.00%