April 18, 2023 Headlines

US Treasury rates traded in a narrow range overnight as the market digested updated economic data out of China. While the overall pace of industrial output slowed, both 1Q2023 GDP estimates and retail sales beat analysts’ expectations. Back in the US, the focus has shifted towards the liquidation process for both the Silicon Valley and Signature Bank securities portfolios. The combined entity holds approximately $113bln current face concentrated in conventional MBS pass-throughs (46.2%), Agency CMO’s (16.5%), and Agency CMBS (12.7%). Sales will be made on a “gradual and orderly basis” to reduce the market impact. Subject to trading conditions, the FDIC will target approximately $1.5bln to $2bln per week with MBS first on the chopping block.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/17/2023	Empire Manufacturing	-18	10.8	-24.6	—
4/17/2023	NAHB Housing Market Index	45	45	44	—
4/17/2023	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$71.0b	$31.9b	—
4/17/2023	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$28.0b	$183.1b	$183.2b
4/18/2023	Housing Starts	1400k	1420k	1450k	1432k
4/18/2023	Building Permits	1450k	1413k	1524k	1550k
4/18/2023	Housing Starts MoM	-3.50%	-0.80%	9.80%	7.30%
4/18/2023	Building Permits MoM	-6.50%	-8.80%	13.80%	15.80%
4/18/2023	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	-9.8	-10.1	—
4/19/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	5.30%	—
4/19/2023	Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/20/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	240k	—	239k	—
4/20/2023	Continuing Claims	1825k	—	1810k	—
4/20/2023	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-19	—	-23.2	—
4/20/2023	Existing Home Sales	4.50m	—	4.58m	—
4/20/2023	Existing Home Sales MoM	-1.80%	—	14.50%	—
4/20/2023	Leading Index	-0.70%	—	-0.30%	—
4/21/2023	Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/21/2023	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	49	—	49.2	—
4/21/2023	S&P Global US Services PMI	51.5	—	52.6	—
4/21/2023	S&P Global US Composite PMI	51.2	—	52.3	—

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