April 18, 2023 Headlines

US Treasury rates traded in a narrow range overnight as the market digested updated economic data out of China. While the overall pace of industrial output slowed, both 1Q2023 GDP estimates and retail sales beat analysts’ expectations. Back in the US, the focus has shifted towards the liquidation process for both the Silicon Valley and Signature Bank securities portfolios. The combined entity holds approximately $113bln current face concentrated in conventional MBS pass-throughs (46.2%), Agency CMO’s (16.5%), and Agency CMBS (12.7%). Sales will be made on a “gradual and orderly basis” to reduce the market impact. Subject to trading conditions, the FDIC will target approximately $1.5bln to $2bln per week with MBS first on the chopping block.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/17/2023 Empire Manufacturing -18 10.8 -24.6
4/17/2023 NAHB Housing Market Index 45 45 44
4/17/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $71.0b $31.9b
4/17/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $28.0b $183.1b $183.2b
4/18/2023 Housing Starts 1400k 1420k 1450k 1432k
4/18/2023 Building Permits 1450k 1413k 1524k 1550k
4/18/2023 Housing Starts MoM -3.50% -0.80% 9.80% 7.30%
4/18/2023 Building Permits MoM -6.50% -8.80% 13.80% 15.80%
4/18/2023 New York Fed Services Business Activity -9.8 -10.1
4/19/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications 5.30%
4/19/2023 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/20/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 240k 239k
4/20/2023 Continuing Claims 1825k 1810k
4/20/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -19 -23.2
4/20/2023 Existing Home Sales 4.50m 4.58m
4/20/2023 Existing Home Sales MoM -1.80% 14.50%
4/20/2023 Leading Index -0.70% -0.30%
4/21/2023 Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/21/2023 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 49 49.2
4/21/2023 S&P Global US Services PMI 51.5 52.6
4/21/2023 S&P Global US Composite PMI 51.2 52.3

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