Treasury yields are higher this morning on more weak PMI data out of Europe, including another disappointing manufacturing reading for Germany. A better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report is helping offset the risk-off move somewhat, at least in equity markets. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.25% on the day after touching -0.40% overnight. Headline retail sales rose 1.6% in March, 60 bps above expectations and the highest monthly reading since September 2017. Sales growth excluding autos and gas was more than double expectations at 0.9%, and the control group rose 1% in March (0.4% expected). The control group excludes food, gas, building materials, and autos, and it receives more focus from the markets because it is the retail sales component used in the GDP calculation. Separately, weekly jobless claims set a fresh 49-year low of 192,000 for the weekend ended April 13.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/15/19 | Empire Manufacturing | 8 | 10.1 | 3.7 | — |
| 04/15/19 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $51.9b | -$7.2b | — |
| 04/15/19 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$21.6b | -$143.7b | — |
| 04/16/19 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 04/16/19 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.30% |
| 04/16/19 | Capacity Utilization | 79.20% | 78.80% | 78.20% | 79.00% |
| 04/16/19 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 63 | 63 | 62 | — |
| 04/17/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.50% | -5.60% | — |
| 04/17/19 | Trade Balance | -$53.4b | -$49.4b | -$51.1b | — |
| 04/17/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 1.20% | — |
| 04/17/19 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
| 04/17/19 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.00% | 1.60% | -0.20% | — |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | 1.20% | -0.40% | -0.20% |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.90% | -0.60% | -0.70% |
| 04/18/19 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 1.00% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 04/18/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 11 | 8.5 | 13.7 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | 192k | 196k | 197k |
| 04/18/19 | Continuing Claims | 1722k | 1653k | 1713k | 1716k |
| 04/18/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 60.3 | 59.8 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | 50 | 47.5 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 52.4 | 52.4 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 55 | 52.9 | 55.3 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 52.8 | 54.6 | — |
| 04/18/19 | Leading Index | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 04/18/19 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 04/19/19 | Housing Starts | 1228k | — | 1162k | — |
| 04/19/19 | Housing Starts MoM | 5.70% | — | -8.70% | — |
| 04/19/19 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1296k | 1291k |
| 04/19/19 | Building Permits MoM | 0.70% | — | -1.60% | -2.00% |