Treasury yields are higher this morning on more weak PMI data out of Europe, including another disappointing manufacturing reading for Germany. A better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report is helping offset the risk-off move somewhat, at least in equity markets. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.25% on the day after touching -0.40% overnight. Headline retail sales rose 1.6% in March, 60 bps above expectations and the highest monthly reading since September 2017. Sales growth excluding autos and gas was more than double expectations at 0.9%, and the control group rose 1% in March (0.4% expected). The control group excludes food, gas, building materials, and autos, and it receives more focus from the markets because it is the retail sales component used in the GDP calculation. Separately, weekly jobless claims set a fresh 49-year low of 192,000 for the weekend ended April 13.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/15/19Empire Manufacturing810.13.7
04/15/19Net Long-term TIC Flows$51.9b-$7.2b
04/15/19Total Net TIC Flows-$21.6b-$143.7b
04/16/19Industrial Production MoM0.20%-0.10%0.10%0.10%
04/16/19Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.00%-0.40%-0.30%
04/16/19Capacity Utilization79.20%78.80%78.20%79.00%
04/16/19NAHB Housing Market Index636362
04/17/19MBA Mortgage Applications-3.50%-5.60%
04/17/19Trade Balance-$53.4b-$49.4b-$51.1b
04/17/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.20%1.20%
04/17/19Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%0.30%0.50%
04/17/19U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/18/19Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%1.60%-0.20%
04/18/19Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%1.20%-0.40%-0.20%
04/18/19Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.90%-0.60%-0.70%
04/18/19Retail Sales Control Group0.40%1.00%-0.20%-0.30%
04/18/19Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook118.513.7
04/18/19Initial Jobless Claims205k192k196k197k
04/18/19Continuing Claims1722k1653k1713k1716k
04/18/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.359.8
04/18/19Bloomberg Economic Expectations5047.5
04/18/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.852.452.4
04/18/19Markit US Services PMI5552.955.3
04/18/19Markit US Composite PMI52.854.6
04/18/19Leading Index0.40%0.40%0.20%0.10%
04/18/19Business Inventories0.30%0.30%0.80%0.90%
04/19/19Housing Starts1228k1162k
04/19/19Housing Starts MoM5.70%-8.70%
04/19/19Building Permits1300k1296k1291k
04/19/19Building Permits MoM0.70%-1.60%-2.00%