It was another positive overnight session for risk markets, with virtually all major equity indices higher on the day, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 9 points. The lack of negative headlines and risk-on sentiment is also pushing Treasury prices modestly lower and credit spreads tighter. Treasuries have traded in a fairly tight range in recent weeks, particularly on the long-end of the curve, and implied rate volatility (for Treasuries) is now approaching the historic lows reached in late 2017/early 2018. Inflation data in the eurozone and U.K. was softer in March, and the U.K. reading reduces the likelihood of a May rate hike by the Bank of England.  Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles supported reforms to the Volcker Act and Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) for depository institutions. Regarding CRA, Quarles said he would like “to take it off autopilot.”

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
04/16/2018Empire Manufacturing18.415.822.5
04/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.60%-0.10%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%0.30%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/16/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.60%0.60%
04/16/2018NAHB Housing Market Index706970
04/16/2018Total Net TIC Flows$44.7b$119.7b$122.6b
04/16/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.0b$62.1b$61.4b
04/17/2018Housing Starts1267k1319k1236k1295k
04/17/2018Housing Starts MoM2.50%1.90%-7.00%-3.30%
04/17/2018Building Permits1321k1354k1298k1321k
04/17/2018Building Permits MoM0.00%2.50%-5.70%-4.10%
04/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.50%1.10%1.00%
04/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.10%1.20%1.50%
04/17/2018Capacity Utilization77.90%78.00%78.10%77.70%
04/18/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%-1.90%
04/18/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
04/19/2018Initial Jobless Claims230k233k
04/19/2018Continuing Claims1845k1871k
04/19/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2122.3
04/19/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
04/19/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
04/19/2018Leading Index0.30%0.60%
04/23/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.250.88
04/23/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.655.6
04/23/2018Markit US Services PMI5454
04/23/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.2
04/23/2018Existing Home Sales5.57m5.54m
04/23/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.50%3.00%
04/24/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.80%
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index205.1
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.70%0.75%
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.40%
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.31
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.18%
04/24/2018New Home Sales628k618k
04/24/2018New Home Sales MoM1.60%-0.60%
04/24/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1715
04/24/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126127.7
04/24/2018Conf. Board Present Situation159.9
04/24/2018Conf. Board Expectations106.2
04/25/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%