April 19, 2022 Headlines

Front-end Treasury yields are up another 8-10 basis points after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard refused to rule out a 0.75% rate hike during a speech late yesterday. While he acknowledged that “it is not my base case” regarding a greater than 0.5% hike, it would seem that Bullard isn’t satisfied with the 100 bps of rate hikes the market has already priced in for the next two meetings or he still isn’t aware of the power of Fedspeak on market pricing. We would lean toward the former explanation, and Bullard did refer back to the 1994 cycle when the Fed raised rates 300 bps (3% to 6%) in a 12-month period while achieving a rare soft landing in the modern monetary policy era.  On a related note, the 10-year real, or inflation-adjusted, Treasury  yield is up 100 bps since early March and is now close to positive territory for the first time since the pre-Covid era.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/18/22 NAHB Housing Market Index 77 77 79 —
04/19/22 Housing Starts 1740k 1793k 1769k 1788k
04/19/22 Building Permits 1820k 1873k 1859k 1865k
04/19/22 Housing Starts MoM -1.60% 0.30% 6.80% 6.50%
04/19/22 Building Permits MoM -2.40% 0.40% -1.90% -1.60%
04/20/22 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -1.30% —
04/20/22 Existing Home Sales 5.78m — 6.02m —
04/20/22 Existing Home Sales MoM -4.00% — -7.20% —
04/20/22 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/21/22 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 21.7 — 27.4 —
04/21/22 Initial Jobless Claims 180k — 185k —
04/21/22 Continuing Claims 1459k — 1475k —
04/21/22 Leading Index 0.30% — 0.30% —
04/22/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 58 — 58.8 —
04/22/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 58 — 58 —
04/22/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 57.9 — 57.7 —

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