April 19, 2022 Headlines

Front-end Treasury yields are up another 8-10 basis points after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard refused to rule out a 0.75% rate hike during a speech late yesterday. While he acknowledged that “it is not my base case” regarding a greater than 0.5% hike, it would seem that Bullard isn’t satisfied with the 100 bps of rate hikes the market has already priced in for the next two meetings or he still isn’t aware of the power of Fedspeak on market pricing. We would lean toward the former explanation, and Bullard did refer back to the 1994 cycle when the Fed raised rates 300 bps (3% to 6%) in a 12-month period while achieving a rare soft landing in the modern monetary policy era. On a related note, the 10-year real, or inflation-adjusted, Treasury yield is up 100 bps since early March and is now close to positive territory for the first time since the pre-Covid era.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
04/18/22	NAHB Housing Market Index	77	77	79	—
04/19/22	Housing Starts	1740k	1793k	1769k	1788k
04/19/22	Building Permits	1820k	1873k	1859k	1865k
04/19/22	Housing Starts MoM	-1.60%	0.30%	6.80%	6.50%
04/19/22	Building Permits MoM	-2.40%	0.40%	-1.90%	-1.60%
04/20/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.30%	—
04/20/22	Existing Home Sales	5.78m	—	6.02m	—
04/20/22	Existing Home Sales MoM	-4.00%	—	-7.20%	—
04/20/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/21/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	21.7	—	27.4	—
04/21/22	Initial Jobless Claims	180k	—	185k	—
04/21/22	Continuing Claims	1459k	—	1475k	—
04/21/22	Leading Index	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
04/22/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	58	—	58.8	—
04/22/22	S&P Global US Services PMI	58	—	58	—
04/22/22	S&P Global US Composite PMI	57.9	—	57.7	—

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