Front-end Treasury yields are up another 8-10 basis points after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard refused to rule out a 0.75% rate hike during a speech late yesterday. While he acknowledged that “it is not my base case” regarding a greater than 0.5% hike, it would seem that Bullard isn’t satisfied with the 100 bps of rate hikes the market has already priced in for the next two meetings or he still isn’t aware of the power of Fedspeak on market pricing. We would lean toward the former explanation, and Bullard did refer back to the 1994 cycle when the Fed raised rates 300 bps (3% to 6%) in a 12-month period while achieving a rare soft landing in the modern monetary policy era. On a related note, the 10-year real, or inflation-adjusted, Treasury yield is up 100 bps since early March and is now close to positive territory for the first time since the pre-Covid era.
Chief Investment Officer
|04/18/22||NAHB Housing Market Index||77||77||79||—|
|04/19/22||Housing Starts MoM||-1.60%||0.30%||6.80%||6.50%|
|04/19/22||Building Permits MoM||-2.40%||0.40%||-1.90%||-1.60%|
|04/20/22||MBA Mortgage Applications||—||—||-1.30%||—|
|04/20/22||Existing Home Sales||5.78m||—||6.02m||—|
|04/20/22||Existing Home Sales MoM||-4.00%||—||-7.20%||—|
|04/20/22||U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book|
|04/21/22||Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook||21.7||—||27.4||—|
|04/21/22||Initial Jobless Claims||180k||—||185k||—|
|04/22/22||S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI||58||—||58.8||—|
|04/22/22||S&P Global US Services PMI||58||—||58||—|
|04/22/22||S&P Global US Composite PMI||57.9||—||57.7||—|
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