April 19, 2022 Headlines

Front-end Treasury yields are up another 8-10 basis points after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard refused to rule out a 0.75% rate hike during a speech late yesterday. While he acknowledged that “it is not my base case” regarding a greater than 0.5% hike, it would seem that Bullard isn’t satisfied with the 100 bps of rate hikes the market has already priced in for the next two meetings or he still isn’t aware of the power of Fedspeak on market pricing. We would lean toward the former explanation, and Bullard did refer back to the 1994 cycle when the Fed raised rates 300 bps (3% to 6%) in a 12-month period while achieving a rare soft landing in the modern monetary policy era.  On a related note, the 10-year real, or inflation-adjusted, Treasury  yield is up 100 bps since early March and is now close to positive territory for the first time since the pre-Covid era.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

04/18/22NAHB Housing Market Index777779
04/19/22Housing Starts1740k1793k1769k1788k
04/19/22Building Permits1820k1873k1859k1865k
04/19/22Housing Starts MoM-1.60%0.30%6.80%6.50%
04/19/22Building Permits MoM-2.40%0.40%-1.90%-1.60%
04/20/22MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%
04/20/22Existing Home Sales5.78m6.02m
04/20/22Existing Home Sales MoM-4.00%-7.20%
04/20/22U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/21/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook21.727.4
04/21/22Initial Jobless Claims180k185k
04/21/22Continuing Claims1459k1475k
04/21/22Leading Index0.30%0.30%
04/22/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI5858.8
04/22/22S&P Global US Services PMI5858
04/22/22S&P Global US Composite PMI57.957.7

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.