April 19, 2023 Headlines

Treasury prices declined in the overnight session as elevated European inflation metrics caused markets to reassess the path of monetary policy. Britain’s Consumer Price Index rose 10.1% y/y driven by a strong increase in food prices. UK Gilt 2-year yields surged 15bps to price in additional rate hikes from the Bank of England and curb the highest inflation metrics across G-7 countries. In the US, overnight index swaps have priced in one additional quarter point rate hike in May before easing policy toward the end of the year. However, recent commentary from Federal Reserve leaders has varied. James Bullard, the St. Louis President, favors a 5.5%-5.75% range according to Reuters. Whereas his Atlanta counterpart, Raphael Bostic supports a less dramatic approach to hold rates constant after the 25 bps May hike.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/17/2023	Empire Manufacturing	-18	10.8	-24.6	—
4/17/2023	NAHB Housing Market Index	45	45	44	—
4/17/2023	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$71.0b	$31.9b	—
4/17/2023	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$28.0b	$183.1b	$183.2b
4/18/2023	Housing Starts	1400k	1420k	1450k	1432k
4/18/2023	Building Permits	1450k	1413k	1524k	1550k
4/18/2023	Housing Starts MoM	-3.50%	-0.80%	9.80%	7.30%
4/18/2023	Building Permits MoM	-6.50%	-8.80%	13.80%	15.80%
4/18/2023	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	-9.8	-10.1	—
4/19/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-8.80%	5.30%	—
4/19/2023	Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/20/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	240k	—	239k	—
4/20/2023	Continuing Claims	1825k	—	1810k	—
4/20/2023	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-19.2	—	-23.2	—
4/20/2023	Existing Home Sales	4.50m	—	4.58m	—
4/20/2023	Existing Home Sales MoM	-1.80%	—	14.50%	—
4/20/2023	Leading Index	-0.70%	—	-0.30%	—
4/21/2023	Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/21/2023	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	49	—	49.2	—
4/21/2023	S&P Global US Services PMI	51.5	—	52.6	—
4/21/2023	S&P Global US Composite PMI	51.2	—	52.3	—

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