April 19, 2023 Headlines

Treasury prices declined in the overnight session as elevated European inflation metrics caused markets to reassess the path of monetary policy. Britain’s Consumer Price Index rose 10.1% y/y driven by a strong increase in food prices. UK Gilt 2-year yields surged 15bps to price in additional rate hikes from the Bank of England and curb the highest inflation metrics across G-7 countries. In the US, overnight index swaps have priced in one additional quarter point rate hike in May before easing policy toward the end of the year. However, recent commentary from Federal Reserve leaders has varied. James Bullard, the St. Louis President, favors a 5.5%-5.75% range according to Reuters. Whereas his Atlanta counterpart, Raphael Bostic supports a less dramatic approach to hold rates constant after the 25 bps May hike.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

4/17/2023Empire Manufacturing-1810.8-24.6
4/17/2023NAHB Housing Market Index454544
4/17/2023Net Long-term TIC Flows$71.0b$31.9b
4/17/2023Total Net TIC Flows$28.0b$183.1b$183.2b
4/18/2023Housing Starts1400k1420k1450k1432k
4/18/2023Building Permits1450k1413k1524k1550k
4/18/2023Housing Starts MoM-3.50%-0.80%9.80%7.30%
4/18/2023Building Permits MoM-6.50%-8.80%13.80%15.80%
4/18/2023New York Fed Services Business Activity-9.8-10.1
4/19/2023MBA Mortgage Applications-8.80%5.30%
4/19/2023Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/20/2023Initial Jobless Claims240k239k
4/20/2023Continuing Claims1825k1810k
4/20/2023Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-19.2-23.2
4/20/2023Existing Home Sales4.50m4.58m
4/20/2023Existing Home Sales MoM-1.80%14.50%
4/20/2023Leading Index-0.70%-0.30%
4/21/2023Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/21/2023S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI4949.2
4/21/2023S&P Global US Services PMI51.552.6
4/21/2023S&P Global US Composite PMI51.252.3

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