Treasury prices are lower again today on supply pressures from Europe (government bond issuance), hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) sources, and higher commodity prices. The yield curve is also modestly steeper today. The ECB headlines are not exactly fresh news. The central bank has been expected to alter its forward policy guidance in the near future (likely June meeting), particularly as it relates to its current asset purchase program that expires in September. Expectations for reduced central bank purchases has weighed on long-end yields in the U.S. and Europe for the last few months. Nevertheless, the ECB is the biggest wildcard as it relates to headwinds facing financial markets in the near/intermediate term. Quantitative easing has had a significant impact on financial asset/liability valuations in the post-crisis era, and it’s difficult to imagine a negligible impact of quantitative tightening, particularly at a time when some central banks are engaged in traditional policy tightening (rate hikes in the U.S. and U.K.).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/16/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 18.4 | 15.8 | 22.5 | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | -0.10% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 04/16/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | — |
| 04/16/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | 69 | 70 | — |
| 04/16/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $44.7b | $119.7b | $122.6b |
| 04/16/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $49.0b | $62.1b | $61.4b |
| 04/17/2018 | Housing Starts | 1267k | 1319k | 1236k | 1295k |
| 04/17/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.50% | 1.90% | -7.00% | -3.30% |
| 04/17/2018 | Building Permits | 1321k | 1354k | 1298k | 1321k |
| 04/17/2018 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | 2.50% | -5.70% | -4.10% |
| 04/17/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 1.10% | 1.00% |
| 04/17/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | 0.10% | 1.20% | 1.50% |
| 04/17/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | 78.00% | 78.10% | 77.70% |
| 04/18/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.90% | -1.90% | — |
| 04/18/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 04/19/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 232k | 233k | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1845k | 1863k | 1871k | 1878k |
| 04/19/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21 | 23.2 | 22.3 | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 56 | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58 | — |
| 04/19/2018 | Leading Index | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 04/23/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.25 | — | 0.88 | — |
| 04/23/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | — | 55.6 | — |
| 04/23/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 54 | — | 54 | — |
| 04/23/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 04/23/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.55m | — | 5.54m | — |
| 04/23/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 04/24/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 04/24/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | — | 205.1 | — |
| 04/24/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.65% | — | 0.75% | — |
| 04/24/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.20% | — | 6.40% | — |
| 04/24/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 196.31 | — |
| 04/24/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.18% | — |
| 04/24/2018 | New Home Sales | 627k | — | 618k | — |
| 04/24/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 04/24/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 17 | — | 15 | — |
| 04/24/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.3 | — | 127.7 | — |
| 04/24/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 159.9 | — |
| 04/24/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 106.2 | — |
| 04/25/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.90% | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 232k | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1863k | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$74.5b | — | -$75.4b | -$75.9b |
| 04/26/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 04/26/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | — | — |
| 04/26/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 17 | — |