Treasury prices are lower again today on supply pressures from Europe (government bond issuance), hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) sources, and higher commodity prices. The yield curve is also modestly steeper today. The ECB headlines are not exactly fresh news. The central bank has been expected to alter its forward policy guidance in the near future (likely June meeting), particularly as it relates to its current asset purchase program that expires in September. Expectations for reduced central bank purchases has weighed on long-end yields in the U.S. and Europe for the last few months. Nevertheless, the ECB is the biggest wildcard as it relates to headwinds facing financial markets in the near/intermediate term. Quantitative easing has had a significant impact on financial asset/liability valuations in the post-crisis era, and it’s difficult to imagine a negligible impact of quantitative tightening, particularly at a time when some central banks are engaged in traditional policy tightening (rate hikes in the U.S. and U.K.).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
04/16/2018Empire Manufacturing18.415.822.5
04/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.60%-0.10%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%0.30%
04/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/16/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.60%0.60%
04/16/2018NAHB Housing Market Index706970
04/16/2018Total Net TIC Flows$44.7b$119.7b$122.6b
04/16/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.0b$62.1b$61.4b
04/17/2018Housing Starts1267k1319k1236k1295k
04/17/2018Housing Starts MoM2.50%1.90%-7.00%-3.30%
04/17/2018Building Permits1321k1354k1298k1321k
04/17/2018Building Permits MoM0.00%2.50%-5.70%-4.10%
04/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.50%1.10%1.00%
04/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.10%1.20%1.50%
04/17/2018Capacity Utilization77.90%78.00%78.10%77.70%
04/18/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%-1.90%
04/18/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/19/2018Initial Jobless Claims230k232k233k
04/19/2018Continuing Claims1845k1863k1871k1878k
04/19/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2123.222.3
04/19/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
04/19/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
04/19/2018Leading Index0.30%0.60%
04/23/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.250.88
04/23/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.355.6
04/23/2018Markit US Services PMI5454
04/23/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.2
04/23/2018Existing Home Sales5.55m5.54m
04/23/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%3.00%
04/24/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.80%
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index205.1
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.65%0.75%
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.20%6.40%
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.31
04/24/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.18%
04/24/2018New Home Sales627k618k
04/24/2018New Home Sales MoM1.40%-0.60%
04/24/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1715
04/24/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.3127.7
04/24/2018Conf. Board Present Situation159.9
04/24/2018Conf. Board Expectations106.2
04/25/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%
04/26/2018Initial Jobless Claims232k
04/26/2018Continuing Claims1863k
04/26/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$74.5b-$75.4b-$75.9b
04/26/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
04/26/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%
04/26/2018Durable Goods Orders1.00%3.00%
04/26/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.40%1.00%
04/26/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.40%
04/26/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%
04/26/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
04/26/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity17