April 2, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is slightly higher this morning following a bit of a risk on move. The change in sentiment was spurred by the Fed’s decision to temporarily change the supplementary leverage ratio thereby allowing banks to expand their lending capacity as they are no longer required to hold capital against Treasuries. The Fed expects this move to increase leverage capacity by $1.6 trillion.

The big news this morning was the doubling of the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. For the week ended March 28th, 6.65 million individual filed jobless claims easily topping the median estimate of 3.76 million. Continuing claims increased by 1.25 million to 3.03 million. These data points highlight the extent to which the shutdown has hit the labor market and lends further credence to the idea that tomorrow’s jobs reports will show a decline in payrolls for the first time since 2010.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investmet Management Group

3/30/2020Pending Home Sales MoM-1.70%2.40%5.20%5.30%
3/30/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY6.50%11.50%6.70%
3/30/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-10-701.2
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.30%0.43%0.41%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.20%3.08%2.85%2.84%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index219.38218.62218.73218.7
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.92%3.75%3.66%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.43212.59212.39
3/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI4047.849
3/31/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence110120130.7132.6
3/31/2020Conf. Board Expectations88.2107.8108.1
3/31/2020Conf. Board Present Situation167.7165.1169.3
4/1/2020MBA Mortgage Applications15.30%-29.40%
4/1/2020ADP Employment Change-150k-27k183k179k
4/1/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI4848.549.2
4/1/2020Construction Spending MoM0.60%-1.30%1.80%2.80%
4/1/2020ISM Manufacturing44.549.150.1
4/1/2020ISM New Orders42.249.8
4/1/2020ISM Prices Paid41.837.445.9
4/1/2020ISM Employment43.846.9
4/1/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales12.00m11.37m16.83m
4/2/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY266.90%-26.30%
4/2/2020Trade Balance-$40.0b-$39.9b-$45.3b-$45.5b
4/2/2020Initial Jobless Claims3763k6648k3283k3307k
4/2/2020Continuing Claims4941k3029k1803k1784k
4/2/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.7
4/2/2020Factory Orders0.20%-0.50%
4/2/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.10%
4/2/2020Durable Goods Orders1.20%1.20%
4/2/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.60%-0.60%
4/2/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.80%
4/2/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.70%
4/3/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
4/3/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-100k273k
4/3/2020Change in Private Payrolls-123k228k
4/3/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-10k15k
4/3/2020Unemployment Rate3.80%3.50%
4/3/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
4/3/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%
4/3/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.4
4/3/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.30%63.40%
4/3/2020Underemployment Rate7.00%
4/3/2020Markit US Services PMI38.539.1
4/3/2020Markit US Composite PMI40.5
4/3/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index4357.3


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