Treasury prices are little changed this morning following fairly balanced buying/selling in the overnight session. Yields are up 15-20 basis points across the curve over the last two weeks, and the rise in long-end yields coincides with a 10 basis point increase in market inflation expectations over that timeframe. Yesterday’s sell-off in rates also included a 6 basis point steepening in the 2-year/10-year spread (curve slope) from the recent tights. Global equity markets are mixed today (Asian markets mostly higher, European markets slightly higher), and U.S. futures are slightly lower with no major headlines or macro events impacting trading. If long-end Treasury yields continue to grind higher toward 3% (10yr), inflation and interest-rate concerns will likely move back to the forefront for equity markets.  There are no economic releases today, and next week’s calendar will be headlined by the March durable goods report, as well as the first estimate of Q1 GDP (current consensus of 2% growth).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


04/16Empire Manufacturing18.415.822.5
04/16Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.60%-0.10%
04/16Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
04/16Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%0.30%
04/16Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/16Business Inventories0.60%0.60%0.60%
04/16NAHB Housing Market Index706970
04/16Total Net TIC Flows$44.7b$119.7b$122.6b
04/16Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.0b$62.1b$61.4b
04/17Housing Starts1267k1319k1236k1295k
04/17Housing Starts MoM2.50%1.90%-7.00%-3.30%
04/17Building Permits1321k1354k1298k1321k
04/17Building Permits MoM0.00%2.50%-5.70%-4.10%
04/17Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.50%1.10%1.00%
04/17Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.10%1.20%1.50%
04/17Capacity Utilization77.90%78.00%78.10%77.70%
04/18MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%-1.90%
04/18U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/19Initial Jobless Claims230k232k233k
04/19Continuing Claims1845k1863k1871k1878k
04/19Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2123.222.3
04/19Bloomberg Economic Expectations52.556
04/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.158
04/19Leading Index0.30%0.30%0.60%0.70%