Treasury prices are little changed this morning following fairly balanced buying/selling in the overnight session. Yields are up 15-20 basis points across the curve over the last two weeks, and the rise in long-end yields coincides with a 10 basis point increase in market inflation expectations over that timeframe. Yesterday’s sell-off in rates also included a 6 basis point steepening in the 2-year/10-year spread (curve slope) from the recent tights. Global equity markets are mixed today (Asian markets mostly higher, European markets slightly higher), and U.S. futures are slightly lower with no major headlines or macro events impacting trading. If long-end Treasury yields continue to grind higher toward 3% (10yr), inflation and interest-rate concerns will likely move back to the forefront for equity markets.  There are no economic releases today, and next week’s calendar will be headlined by the March durable goods report, as well as the first estimate of Q1 GDP (current consensus of 2% growth).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/16 Empire Manufacturing 18.4 15.8 22.5
04/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.40% 0.60% -0.10%
04/16 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
04/16 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
04/16 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% 0.00%
04/16 Business Inventories 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
04/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 70 69 70
04/16 Total Net TIC Flows $44.7b $119.7b $122.6b
04/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows $49.0b $62.1b $61.4b
04/17 Housing Starts 1267k 1319k 1236k 1295k
04/17 Housing Starts MoM 2.50% 1.90% -7.00% -3.30%
04/17 Building Permits 1321k 1354k 1298k 1321k
04/17 Building Permits MoM 0.00% 2.50% -5.70% -4.10%
04/17 Industrial Production MoM 0.30% 0.50% 1.10% 1.00%
04/17 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% 0.10% 1.20% 1.50%
04/17 Capacity Utilization 77.90% 78.00% 78.10% 77.70%
04/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.90% -1.90%
04/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/19 Initial Jobless Claims 230k 232k 233k
04/19 Continuing Claims 1845k 1863k 1871k 1878k
04/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 21 23.2 22.3
04/19 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 52.5 56
04/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.1 58
04/19 Leading Index 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% 0.70%