Treasury prices are little changed this morning following fairly balanced buying/selling in the overnight session. Yields are up 15-20 basis points across the curve over the last two weeks, and the rise in long-end yields coincides with a 10 basis point increase in market inflation expectations over that timeframe. Yesterday’s sell-off in rates also included a 6 basis point steepening in the 2-year/10-year spread (curve slope) from the recent tights. Global equity markets are mixed today (Asian markets mostly higher, European markets slightly higher), and U.S. futures are slightly lower with no major headlines or macro events impacting trading. If long-end Treasury yields continue to grind higher toward 3% (10yr), inflation and interest-rate concerns will likely move back to the forefront for equity markets. There are no economic releases today, and next week’s calendar will be headlined by the March durable goods report, as well as the first estimate of Q1 GDP (current consensus of 2% growth).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/16 | Empire Manufacturing | 18.4 | 15.8 | 22.5 | — |
| 04/16 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | -0.10% | — |
| 04/16 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/16 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 04/16 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 04/16 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | — |
| 04/16 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | 69 | 70 | — |
| 04/16 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $44.7b | $119.7b | $122.6b |
| 04/16 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $49.0b | $62.1b | $61.4b |
| 04/17 | Housing Starts | 1267k | 1319k | 1236k | 1295k |
| 04/17 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.50% | 1.90% | -7.00% | -3.30% |
| 04/17 | Building Permits | 1321k | 1354k | 1298k | 1321k |
| 04/17 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | 2.50% | -5.70% | -4.10% |
| 04/17 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 1.10% | 1.00% |
| 04/17 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | 0.10% | 1.20% | 1.50% |
| 04/17 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | 78.00% | 78.10% | 77.70% |
| 04/18 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.90% | -1.90% | — |
| 04/18 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 04/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 232k | 233k | — |
| 04/19 | Continuing Claims | 1845k | 1863k | 1871k | 1878k |
| 04/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21 | 23.2 | 22.3 | — |
| 04/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | 52.5 | 56 | — |
| 04/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 58.1 | 58 | — |
| 04/19 | Leading Index | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.70% |