April 20, 2020 Headlines

The big headline to start the week is the 35% collapse in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices. The May WTI contract, which expires tomorrow, has fallen below $12 per barrel as contracts are rolled to June to avoid taking delivery of unwanted supply. The June contract is trading more than $10 higher at $22 per barrel, which has been boosted by inflows from ETF investors. In the end, the significant supply glut continues to weight on oil prices, and the pending OPEC+ 10% supply cut pales in comparison to the unprecedented evaporation of demand amid the global economic shutdown. Treasury yields are down 1-2 bps across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are down 2% ahead of the open. President Trump said an increase of the SBA PPP would be announced as soon as today, as Congressional leaders continue to debate the details of another round of emergency funding.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/20/2020	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	-3	-4.19	0.16	0.06
4/21/2020	Existing Home Sales	5.25m	—	5.77m	—
4/21/2020	Existing Home Sales MoM	-9.00%	—	6.50%	—
4/22/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	7.30%	—
4/22/2020	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
4/23/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	4450k	—	5245k	—
4/23/2020	Continuing Claims	16476k	—	11976k	—
4/23/2020	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	46.5	—
4/23/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.5	—
4/23/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	35	—	48.5	—
4/23/2020	Markit US Services PMI	30	—	39.8	—
4/23/2020	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	40.9	—
4/23/2020	New Home Sales	640k	—	765k	—
4/23/2020	New Home Sales MoM	-16.30%	—	-4.40%	—
4/23/2020	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-37	—	-17	—
4/24/2020	Durable Goods Orders	-12.00%	—	1.20%	—
4/24/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	-6.00%	—	-0.60%	—
4/24/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	-6.40%	—	-0.90%	—
4/24/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-7.00%	—	-0.80%	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.4	—	71	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	72.4	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	70	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.10%	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—

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