April 21, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries and U.S. equities are little changed following a relatively quiet overnight session. Eurozone aggregate PMI data from S&P came in higher than expected in April (54.4 vs. 53.7). led by increased activity in the services sector (56.6 vs. 54.5 expected). According to the Wall Street Journal, the Fed is considering forcing banks with $100 billion to $700 billion of assets to include unrealized losses in available for sale (AFS) portfolios in regulatory capital measures going forward. Currently, only banks above that asset threshold are required to do so. This is unlikely to be the only regulatory changes in the wake of the March bank failures. On a related note, the Fed’s updated H.4.1 report indicated that bank borrowing activity at the central bank increased $4.4 billion for the week ended April 19, split nearly evenly between the discount window and the new Bank Term Funding Program. Borrowing activity from those two facilities is down nearly $21 billion from the peak on March 15 ($165 billion) but remains well above levels prior to the SVB/SBNY failures ($15 billion). In other words, things have calmed in recent weeks, but we certainly wouldn’t say we’re out of the woods yet as it relates to bank funding/liquidity concerns.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/21/2023Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/21/2023S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49—49.2—
4/21/2023S&P Global US Services PMI51.5—52.6—
4/21/2023S&P Global US Composite PMI51.2—52.3—
4/24/2023Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.19—
4/24/2023Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories
4/24/2023Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-15.7—
4/25/2023Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-12.8—
4/25/2023FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.20%—
4/25/2023S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.40%—-0.43%—
4/25/2023S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——2.55%—
4/25/2023S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——3.79%—
4/25/2023New Home Sales632k—640k—
4/25/2023New Home Sales MoM-1.30%—1.10%—
4/25/2023Conf. Board Consumer Confidence104.1—104.2—
4/25/2023Conf. Board Present Situation——151.1—
4/25/2023Conf. Board Expectations——73—
4/25/2023Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-5—
4/25/2023Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-17—
4/25/2023Dallas Fed Services Activity——-18—
4/26/2023MBA Mortgage Applications——-8.80%—
4/26/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.10%—
4/26/2023Advance Goods Trade Balance-$89.8b—-$91.6b—
4/26/2023Retail Inventories MoM——0.80%—
4/26/2023Durable Goods Orders0.70%—-1.00%—
4/26/2023Durables Ex Transportation-0.20%—-0.10%—
4/26/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%—-0.10%—
4/26/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.10%—
4/27/2023Initial Jobless Claims——245k—
4/27/2023Continuing Claims——1865k—
4/27/2023GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%—2.60%—
4/27/2023Personal Consumption4.00%—1.00%—
4/27/2023GDP Price Index3.70%—3.90%—
4/27/2023Core PCE QoQ4.70%—4.40%—
4/27/2023Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%—0.80%—
4/27/2023Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-21.10%—
4/27/2023Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity——0—
4/28/2023Employment Cost Index1.10%—1.00%—
4/28/2023Personal Income0.20%—0.30%—
4/28/2023Personal Spending-0.10%—0.20%—
4/28/2023Real Personal Spending0.00%—-0.10%—
4/28/2023PCE Deflator MoM0.10%—0.30%—
4/28/2023PCE Deflator YoY4.10%—5.00%—
4/28/2023PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
4/28/2023PCE Core Deflator YoY4.50%—4.60%—
4/28/2023MNI Chicago PMI43.5—43.8—
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment63.5—63.5—
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions——68.6—
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Expectations——60.3—
4/28/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——4.60%—
4/28/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.90%—
4/28/2023Kansas City Fed Services Activity——-4—

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