April 22, 2020 Headlines

A modest improvement in risk sentiment this morning, is pushing equity futures higher and Treasury prices lower. A slight increase in oil prices is contributing to the more positive tone, as well as an article suggesting the European Central Bank may loosen its collateral criteria to accept junk bonds. The FHFA announced yesterday that servicers will now only have to advance four months of principal and interest payments for GSE-guaranteed loans in COVID-19-related forbearance. After the four-month period, the loan would still remain in the MBS pool during the forbearance plan, and the GSEs would take over P&I advancing. The FHFA had been under a great deal of pressure from the MBA and Congressional leaders to provide relief to mortgage servicers, which was the likely motivation for yesterday’s announcement. On a somewhat related note, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index  fell 0.3% for the weekend ended April 17, including a 0.8% decline in refinance applications. The refi applications index has been more volatile in recent weeks (+10% the prior week and -19.4% two weeks prior), and average 30-year fixed rate for the period was 3.45% according to the MBA survey, unchanged from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/20/2020 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -3 -4.19 0.16 0.06
4/21/2020 Existing Home Sales 5.25m 5.27m 5.77m 5.76m
4/21/2020 Existing Home Sales MoM -9.00% -8.50% 6.50% 6.30%
4/22/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.30% 7.30%
4/22/2020 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.70% 0.30% 0.50%
4/23/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 4500k 5245k
4/23/2020 Continuing Claims 17000k 11976k
4/23/2020 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 46.5
4/23/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.5
4/23/2020 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 35 48.5
4/23/2020 Markit US Services PMI 30 39.8
4/23/2020 Markit US Composite PMI 40.9
4/23/2020 New Home Sales 640k 765k
4/23/2020 New Home Sales MoM -16.30% -4.40%
4/23/2020 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -37 -17
4/24/2020 Durable Goods Orders -12.00% 1.20%
4/24/2020 Durables Ex Transportation -6.50% -0.60%
4/24/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -6.70% -0.90%
4/24/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -7.00% -0.80%
4/24/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 67.9 71
4/24/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 72.4
4/24/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 70
4/24/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.10%
4/24/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%


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