A modest improvement in risk sentiment this morning, is pushing equity futures higher and Treasury prices lower. A slight increase in oil prices is contributing to the more positive tone, as well as an article suggesting the European Central Bank may loosen its collateral criteria to accept junk bonds. The FHFA announced yesterday that servicers will now only have to advance four months of principal and interest payments for GSE-guaranteed loans in COVID-19-related forbearance. After the four-month period, the loan would still remain in the MBS pool during the forbearance plan, and the GSEs would take over P&I advancing. The FHFA had been under a great deal of pressure from the MBA and Congressional leaders to provide relief to mortgage servicers, which was the likely motivation for yesterday’s announcement. On a somewhat related note, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.3% for the weekend ended April 17, including a 0.8% decline in refinance applications. The refi applications index has been more volatile in recent weeks (+10% the prior week and -19.4% two weeks prior), and average 30-year fixed rate for the period was 3.45% according to the MBA survey, unchanged from the prior week.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
4/20/2020 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -3 | -4.19 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
4/21/2020 | Existing Home Sales | 5.25m | 5.27m | 5.77m | 5.76m |
4/21/2020 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -9.00% | -8.50% | 6.50% | 6.30% |
4/22/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.30% | 7.30% | — |
4/22/2020 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
4/23/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 4500k | — | 5245k | — |
4/23/2020 | Continuing Claims | 17000k | — | 11976k | — |
4/23/2020 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 46.5 | — |
4/23/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.5 | — |
4/23/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 35 | — | 48.5 | — |
4/23/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 30 | — | 39.8 | — |
4/23/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 40.9 | — |
4/23/2020 | New Home Sales | 640k | — | 765k | — |
4/23/2020 | New Home Sales MoM | -16.30% | — | -4.40% | — |
4/23/2020 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -37 | — | -17 | — |
4/24/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -12.00% | — | 1.20% | — |
4/24/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | -6.50% | — | -0.60% | — |
4/24/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -6.70% | — | -0.90% | — |
4/24/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -7.00% | — | -0.80% | — |
4/24/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 67.9 | — | 71 | — |
4/24/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 72.4 | — |
4/24/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 70 | — |
4/24/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.10% | — |
4/24/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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