April 22, 2020 Headlines

A modest improvement in risk sentiment this morning, is pushing equity futures higher and Treasury prices lower. A slight increase in oil prices is contributing to the more positive tone, as well as an article suggesting the European Central Bank may loosen its collateral criteria to accept junk bonds. The FHFA announced yesterday that servicers will now only have to advance four months of principal and interest payments for GSE-guaranteed loans in COVID-19-related forbearance. After the four-month period, the loan would still remain in the MBS pool during the forbearance plan, and the GSEs would take over P&I advancing. The FHFA had been under a great deal of pressure from the MBA and Congressional leaders to provide relief to mortgage servicers, which was the likely motivation for yesterday’s announcement. On a somewhat related note, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.3% for the weekend ended April 17, including a 0.8% decline in refinance applications. The refi applications index has been more volatile in recent weeks (+10% the prior week and -19.4% two weeks prior), and average 30-year fixed rate for the period was 3.45% according to the MBA survey, unchanged from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/20/2020	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	-3	-4.19	0.16	0.06
4/21/2020	Existing Home Sales	5.25m	5.27m	5.77m	5.76m
4/21/2020	Existing Home Sales MoM	-9.00%	-8.50%	6.50%	6.30%
4/22/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.30%	7.30%	—
4/22/2020	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.30%	0.70%	0.30%	0.50%
4/23/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	4500k	—	5245k	—
4/23/2020	Continuing Claims	17000k	—	11976k	—
4/23/2020	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	46.5	—
4/23/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.5	—
4/23/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	35	—	48.5	—
4/23/2020	Markit US Services PMI	30	—	39.8	—
4/23/2020	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	40.9	—
4/23/2020	New Home Sales	640k	—	765k	—
4/23/2020	New Home Sales MoM	-16.30%	—	-4.40%	—
4/23/2020	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-37	—	-17	—
4/24/2020	Durable Goods Orders	-12.00%	—	1.20%	—
4/24/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	-6.50%	—	-0.60%	—
4/24/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	-6.70%	—	-0.90%	—
4/24/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-7.00%	—	-0.80%	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.9	—	71	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	72.4	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	70	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.10%	—
4/24/2020	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—

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