April 22, 2019 Headlines

It was a relatively quiet overnight trading session with several markets closed for holiday (Australia, Hong Kong, Europe, and others). Treasury prices are little changed at the moment, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.33%. Oil futures are up 2.5% this morning on reports that the White House will end all current sanction waivers for buyers of Iranian oil. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will increase production to make up the difference, but doing so may threaten the current OPEC agreement. Chinese stocks struggled today after Chinese leaders announced they would focus more on structural economic reforms going forward as opposed to additional stimulus. The decision to forgo additional stimulus was based on better than expected Q1 economic data and progress in securing a trade deal with the United States.

The first estimate of Q1 GDP growth will be released Friday. Current street estimates call for 2.2% top-line growth and 1% personal consumption growth. We’ve entered the blackout period for Fed speeches ahead of the May 1 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/22/19	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	-0.1	-0.15	-0.29	-0.31
4/22/19	Existing Home Sales	5.30m	—	5.51m	—
4/22/19	Existing Home Sales MoM	-3.80%	—	11.80%	—
4/23/19	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
4/23/19	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	10	—	10	—
4/23/19	New Home Sales	650k	—	667k	—
4/23/19	New Home Sales MoM	-2.60%	—	4.90%	—
4/24/19	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-3.50%	—
4/25/19	Durable Goods Orders	0.80%	—	-1.60%	—
4/25/19	Initial Jobless Claims	200k	—	192k	—
4/25/19	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	-0.10%	—
4/25/19	Continuing Claims	1683k	—	1653k	—
4/25/19	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
4/25/19	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
4/25/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	60.3	—
4/25/19	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	8	—	10	—
4/26/19	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.20%	—	2.20%	—
4/26/19	Personal Consumption	1.00%	—	2.50%	—
4/26/19	GDP Price Index	1.20%	—	1.70%	—
4/26/19	Core PCE QoQ	1.30%	—	1.80%	—
4/26/19	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	96.9	—
4/26/19	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	114.2	—
4/26/19	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	85.8	—
4/26/19	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.40%	—
4/26/19	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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