April 24, 2019 Headlines

Further strength in the U.S. dollar overnight is contributing to a rally in Treasuries across the curve this morning. The dollar was buoyed by weaker economic data in Asia and Europe, including softer inflation in Australia and a decline in a German business sentiment index. Regarding the latter, dampened confidence was mostly concentrated in the manufacturing sector (trade related), which aligns with the recent hard data trend. On a similar note, a measure of French factory confidence fell to a four-year low in April.

Recent manufacturing sentiment has likely been impacted by the looming decision by the White House on whether it will impose tariffs on auto imports. The European Central Bank (ECB) just released a report suggesting the impact of such tariffs would have only a limited impact on the Eurozone economy, due somewhat to the offsetting effect of retaliatory measures from the European Union. However, the report did acknowledge the risk of escalated trade tensions, defined as a 10% increase in U.S. tariffs on all trading partners. Such a move would reduce GDP by 1.5%, according to ECB estimates. Thus far, the markets are not pricing for this risk on the assumption that President Trump doesn’t want to do anything that might negatively impact stock markets and overall economic growth ahead of the 2020 election, particularly with a U.S./China agreement presumably imminent.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/22/19Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.1-0.15-0.29-0.31
04/22/19Existing Home Sales5.30m5.21m5.51m5.48m
04/22/19Existing Home Sales MoM-3.80%-4.90%11.80%11.20%
04/23/19FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%0.60%
04/23/19Richmond Fed Manufact. Index10310
04/23/19New Home Sales649k692k667k662k
04/23/19New Home Sales MoM-2.70%4.50%4.90%5.90%
04/24/19MBA Mortgage Applications-7.30%-3.50%
04/25/19Initial Jobless Claims200k192k
04/25/19Continuing Claims1682k1653k
04/25/19Durable Goods Orders0.80%-1.60%
04/25/19Durables Ex Transportation0.20%-0.10%
04/25/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.10%
04/25/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.10%
04/25/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.3
04/25/19Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity910
04/26/19GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.20%
04/26/19Personal Consumption1.00%2.50%
04/26/19GDP Price Index1.20%1.70%
04/26/19Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.80%
04/26/19U. of Mich. Sentiment9796.9
04/26/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.2
04/26/19U. of Mich. Expectations85.8
04/26/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%
04/26/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.