April 25, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 5-8 basis points lower to start the morning amid a modest risk-off tone. Shares of First Republic Bank are down more than 25% in pre-market trading after the company’s Q1 earnings report showed a 41% decline in deposits over the period, a bigger drop than analysts were expecting. The bank also announced it will cut up to 25% of its workforce, and it’s a reminder of the challenges still facing some banks in the fallout from the March failures of SVB and SBNY. The Fed has entered the blackout period ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are currently pricing a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week, which would also be the final rate hike by the same metric.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/25/2023 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -22.8 -12.8
4/25/2023 FHFA House Price Index MoM -0.10% 0.50% 0.20% 0.10%
4/25/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA -0.35% 0.06% -0.43% -0.39%
4/25/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA -0.05% 0.36% 2.55% 2.58%
4/25/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 2.05% 3.79% 3.75%
4/25/2023 New Home Sales 632k 640k
4/25/2023 New Home Sales MoM -1.30% 1.10%
4/25/2023 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 104 104.2
4/25/2023 Conf. Board Present Situation 151.1
4/25/2023 Conf. Board Expectations 73
4/25/2023 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -8 -5
4/25/2023 Richmond Fed Business Conditions -17
4/25/2023 Dallas Fed Services Activity -18
4/26/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -8.80%
4/26/2023 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$90.0b -$91.6b
4/26/2023 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.10%
4/26/2023 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.80%
4/26/2023 Durable Goods Orders 0.70% -1.00%
4/26/2023 Durables Ex Transportation -0.20% -0.10%
4/26/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.10% -0.10%
4/26/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.10% -0.10%
4/27/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 248k 245k
4/27/2023 Continuing Claims 1872k 1865k
4/27/2023 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.00% 2.60%
4/27/2023 Personal Consumption 4.30% 1.00%
4/27/2023 GDP Price Index 3.70% 3.90%
4/27/2023 Core PCE QoQ 4.70% 4.40%
4/27/2023 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.70% 0.80%
4/27/2023 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -21.10%
4/27/2023 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -2 0
4/28/2023 Employment Cost Index 1.10% 1.00%
4/28/2023 Personal Income 0.20% 0.30%
4/28/2023 Personal Spending -0.10% 0.20%
4/28/2023 Real Personal Spending -0.10% -0.10%
4/28/2023 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.30%
4/28/2023 PCE Deflator YoY 4.10% 5.00%
4/28/2023 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30%
4/28/2023 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.50% 4.60%
4/28/2023 MNI Chicago PMI 43.6 43.8
4/28/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63.5 63.5
4/28/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 68.6
4/28/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 60.3
4/28/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.60%
4/28/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90%
4/28/2023 Kansas City Fed Services Activity -4
5/1/2023 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 50.4
5/1/2023 Construction Spending MoM 0.10% -0.10%
5/1/2023 ISM Manufacturing 46.8 46.3
5/1/2023 ISM Prices Paid 49.2
5/1/2023 ISM Employment 46.9
5/1/2023 ISM New Orders 44.3
5/2/2023 JOLTS Job Openings 9931k
5/2/2023 Factory Orders 0.80% -0.70%
5/2/2023 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.30%
5/2/2023 Durable Goods Orders
5/2/2023 Durables Ex Transportation
5/2/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
5/2/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
5/2/2023 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 14.80m 14.82m

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