April 25, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 5-8 basis points lower to start the morning amid a modest risk-off tone. Shares of First Republic Bank are down more than 25% in pre-market trading after the company’s Q1 earnings report showed a 41% decline in deposits over the period, a bigger drop than analysts were expecting. The bank also announced it will cut up to 25% of its workforce, and it’s a reminder of the challenges still facing some banks in the fallout from the March failures of SVB and SBNY. The Fed has entered the blackout period ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are currently pricing a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week, which would also be the final rate hike by the same metric.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

4/25/2023Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-22.8-12.8
4/25/2023FHFA House Price Index MoM-0.10%0.50%0.20%0.10%
4/25/2023S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.35%0.06%-0.43%-0.39%
4/25/2023S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA-0.05%0.36%2.55%2.58%
4/25/2023S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA2.05%3.79%3.75%
4/25/2023New Home Sales632k640k
4/25/2023New Home Sales MoM-1.30%1.10%
4/25/2023Conf. Board Consumer Confidence104104.2
4/25/2023Conf. Board Present Situation151.1
4/25/2023Conf. Board Expectations73
4/25/2023Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-8-5
4/25/2023Richmond Fed Business Conditions-17
4/25/2023Dallas Fed Services Activity-18
4/26/2023MBA Mortgage Applications-8.80%
4/26/2023Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.0b-$91.6b
4/26/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.10%
4/26/2023Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.80%
4/26/2023Durable Goods Orders0.70%-1.00%
4/26/2023Durables Ex Transportation-0.20%-0.10%
4/26/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%-0.10%
4/26/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.10%
4/27/2023Initial Jobless Claims248k245k
4/27/2023Continuing Claims1872k1865k
4/27/2023GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%2.60%
4/27/2023Personal Consumption4.30%1.00%
4/27/2023GDP Price Index3.70%3.90%
4/27/2023Core PCE QoQ4.70%4.40%
4/27/2023Pending Home Sales MoM0.70%0.80%
4/27/2023Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-21.10%
4/27/2023Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-20
4/28/2023Employment Cost Index1.10%1.00%
4/28/2023Personal Income0.20%0.30%
4/28/2023Personal Spending-0.10%0.20%
4/28/2023Real Personal Spending-0.10%-0.10%
4/28/2023PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%
4/28/2023PCE Deflator YoY4.10%5.00%
4/28/2023PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
4/28/2023PCE Core Deflator YoY4.50%4.60%
4/28/2023MNI Chicago PMI43.643.8
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment63.563.5
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions68.6
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Expectations60.3
4/28/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%
4/28/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%
4/28/2023Kansas City Fed Services Activity-4
5/1/2023S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.4
5/1/2023Construction Spending MoM0.10%-0.10%
5/1/2023ISM Manufacturing46.846.3
5/1/2023ISM Prices Paid49.2
5/1/2023ISM Employment46.9
5/1/2023ISM New Orders44.3
5/2/2023JOLTS Job Openings9931k
5/2/2023Factory Orders0.80%-0.70%
5/2/2023Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.30%
5/2/2023Durable Goods Orders
5/2/2023Durables Ex Transportation
5/2/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
5/2/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
5/2/2023Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.80m14.82m

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