April 25, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 5-8 basis points lower to start the morning amid a modest risk-off tone. Shares of First Republic Bank are down more than 25% in pre-market trading after the company’s Q1 earnings report showed a 41% decline in deposits over the period, a bigger drop than analysts were expecting. The bank also announced it will cut up to 25% of its workforce, and it’s a reminder of the challenges still facing some banks in the fallout from the March failures of SVB and SBNY. The Fed has entered the blackout period ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are currently pricing a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week, which would also be the final rate hike by the same metric.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/25/2023	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	-22.8	-12.8	—
4/25/2023	FHFA House Price Index MoM	-0.10%	0.50%	0.20%	0.10%
4/25/2023	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	-0.35%	0.06%	-0.43%	-0.39%
4/25/2023	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	-0.05%	0.36%	2.55%	2.58%
4/25/2023	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	2.05%	3.79%	3.75%
4/25/2023	New Home Sales	632k	—	640k	—
4/25/2023	New Home Sales MoM	-1.30%	—	1.10%	—
4/25/2023	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	104	—	104.2	—
4/25/2023	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	151.1	—
4/25/2023	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	73	—
4/25/2023	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-8	—	-5	—
4/25/2023	Richmond Fed Business Conditions	—	—	-17	—
4/25/2023	Dallas Fed Services Activity	—	—	-18	—
4/26/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-8.80%	—
4/26/2023	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$90.0b	—	-$91.6b	—
4/26/2023	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
4/26/2023	Retail Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.80%	—
4/26/2023	Durable Goods Orders	0.70%	—	-1.00%	—
4/26/2023	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.20%	—	-0.10%	—
4/26/2023	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	-0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
4/26/2023	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
4/27/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	248k	—	245k	—
4/27/2023	Continuing Claims	1872k	—	1865k	—
4/27/2023	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.00%	—	2.60%	—
4/27/2023	Personal Consumption	4.30%	—	1.00%	—
4/27/2023	GDP Price Index	3.70%	—	3.90%	—
4/27/2023	Core PCE QoQ	4.70%	—	4.40%	—
4/27/2023	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.70%	—	0.80%	—
4/27/2023	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	-21.10%	—
4/27/2023	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-2	—	0	—
4/28/2023	Employment Cost Index	1.10%	—	1.00%	—
4/28/2023	Personal Income	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
4/28/2023	Personal Spending	-0.10%	—	0.20%	—
4/28/2023	Real Personal Spending	-0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
4/28/2023	PCE Deflator MoM	0.10%	—	0.30%	—
4/28/2023	PCE Deflator YoY	4.10%	—	5.00%	—
4/28/2023	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
4/28/2023	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.50%	—	4.60%	—
4/28/2023	MNI Chicago PMI	43.6	—	43.8	—
4/28/2023	U. of Mich. Sentiment	63.5	—	63.5	—
4/28/2023	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	68.6	—
4/28/2023	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	60.3	—
4/28/2023	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	4.60%	—
4/28/2023	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.90%	—
4/28/2023	Kansas City Fed Services Activity	—	—	-4	—
5/1/2023	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	—	—	50.4	—
5/1/2023	Construction Spending MoM	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
5/1/2023	ISM Manufacturing	46.8	—	46.3	—
5/1/2023	ISM Prices Paid	—	—	49.2	—
5/1/2023	ISM Employment	—	—	46.9	—
5/1/2023	ISM New Orders	—	—	44.3	—
5/2/2023	JOLTS Job Openings	—	—	9931k	—
5/2/2023	Factory Orders	0.80%	—	-0.70%	—
5/2/2023	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-0.30%	—
5/2/2023	Durable Goods Orders	—	—	—	—
5/2/2023	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	—	—
5/2/2023	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	—	—
5/2/2023	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	—	—
5/2/2023	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.80m	—	14.82m	—

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