April 26, 2019 Headlines

The Treasury curve is lower and steeper this morning following the release of Q1 GDP, which showed a lower than expected increase in inflation. The front end of the curve is down 5 basis points while the long end is down 3 basis points and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year part of the curve is sitting at 22 basis points (+8 basis points MTD).

The main focus of the market this morning has been the strong Q1 GDP print, 3.2% vs 2.3% expected. This expansion was driven primarily by upticks in inventory and trade, two more volatile components of GDP, up 0.65% and 1.03% respectively. However, the first quarter showed weakness in demand as consumer spending (70% of US GDP) increased only slightly while business investment slowed over the first three months of 2019. Without increases in consumer spending it will be difficult for the economy to maintain this level of expansion. The GDP release also showed relatively tame inflation, with the price index increasing by 0.9%, 0.3% lower than expectations.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

04/22/19Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.1-0.15-0.29-0.31
04/22/19Existing Home Sales5.30m5.21m5.51m5.48m
04/22/19Existing Home Sales MoM-3.80%-4.90%11.80%11.20%
04/23/19FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%0.60%
04/23/19Richmond Fed Manufact. Index10310
04/23/19New Home Sales649k692k667k662k
04/23/19New Home Sales MoM-2.70%4.50%4.90%5.90%
04/24/19MBA Mortgage Applications-7.30%-3.50%
04/25/19Initial Jobless Claims200k230k192k193k
04/25/19Continuing Claims1682k1655k1653k1654k
04/25/19Durable Goods Orders0.80%2.70%-1.60%-1.10%
04/25/19Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.40%-0.10%-0.20%
04/25/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%1.30%-0.10%0.10%
04/25/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.20%-0.10%0.20%
04/25/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.860.3
04/25/19Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity8510
04/26/19GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%3.20%2.20%
04/26/19Personal Consumption1.00%1.20%2.50%
04/26/19GDP Price Index1.20%0.90%1.70%
04/26/19Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.30%1.80%
04/26/19U. of Mich. Sentiment9796.9
04/26/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.2
04/26/19U. of Mich. Expectations85.8
04/26/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%
04/26/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.