April 26, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting higher along the curve to start the week ahead of fresh supply this week (2yr, 5yr, and 7yr auctions) and a FOMC meeting on Wednesday. U.S. equity futures are little changed ahead of the open. March durable goods orders rose at a slower than expected pace in March, rising 0.5% versus expectations of a 2.3% gain. Headline orders were drug down by declines in commercial and military aircraft, but core orders, which exclude both in its calculation, rose just 0.9% over the month versus 1.7% expected. This is a mild disappointment but unlikely enough to cause material adjustments to economist estimates for Q1 GDP. Regarding the latter, the first estimate of first quarter growth will be released on Thursday (6.6% Bloomberg median economist estimate), and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is not expected to offer any surprises.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/26/2021Durable Goods Orders2.30%0.50%-1.20%-0.90%
4/26/2021Durables Ex Transportation1.60%1.60%-0.90%-0.30%
4/26/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%0.90%-0.90%-0.80%
4/26/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.50%1.30%-1.10%
4/26/2021Revisions: Retail Sales
4/26/2021Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3028.9
4/27/2021FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.00%
4/27/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.10%1.20%
4/27/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA11.80%11.10%
4/27/2021S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA11.22%
4/27/2021Conf. Board Consumer Confidence112.5109.7
4/27/2021Conf. Board Present Situation110
4/27/2021Conf. Board Expectations109.6
4/27/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2217
4/28/2021MBA Mortgage Applications8.60%
4/28/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.6b-$86.7b
4/28/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.60%
4/28/2021Retail Inventories MoM-0.30%0.00%
4/28/2021FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
4/28/2021FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
4/28/2021Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
4/29/2021Initial Jobless Claims540k547k
4/29/2021Continuing Claims3590k3674k
4/29/2021GDP Annualized QoQ6.60%4.30%
4/29/2021Personal Consumption10.10%2.30%
4/29/2021GDP Price Index2.60%2.00%
4/29/2021Core PCE QoQ2.40%1.30%
4/29/2021Langer Consumer Comfort54.2
4/29/2021Pending Home Sales MoM4.30%-10.60%
4/29/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.70%
4/30/2021Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
4/30/2021Personal Income20.00%-7.10%
4/30/2021Personal Spending4.20%-1.00%
4/30/2021Real Personal Spending3.60%-1.20%
4/30/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.20%
4/30/2021PCE Deflator YoY2.30%1.60%
4/30/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.10%
4/30/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY1.80%1.40%
4/30/2021MNI Chicago PMI64.766.3
4/30/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment87.586.5
4/30/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions97.2
4/30/2021U. of Mich. Expectations79.7
4/30/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%
4/30/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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