April 27, 2021 Headlines

Financial markets are relatively calm this morning with Treasuries and equity futures little changed to start the day. A Financial Times article today reports that several U.S. companies plan to raise prices soon due to rising input costs. Based on discussions with analysts during earnings calls, executives from companies such as Coca-Cola, Chipotle, Whirlpool, and Proctor & Gamble all said they were preparing to raise prices on products due to higher commodity costs. Lumber prices are at the highest level since futures began trading in 1985 and up 60% year-to-date. There could be some big inflation prints in the coming months, and if so, Fed leaders will be challenged in selling the “transitory” message to financial markets.    

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/27/2021 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% —
4/27/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.10% 1.17% 1.20% 1.25%
4/27/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 11.80% 11.94% 11.10% 11.12%
4/27/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 11.97% 11.22% —
4/27/2021 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 113 — 109.7 —
4/27/2021 Conf. Board Present Situation — — 110 —
4/27/2021 Conf. Board Expectations — — 109.6 —
4/27/2021 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 22 — 17 —
4/28/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 8.60% —
4/28/2021 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$88.0b — -$86.7b -$87.1b
4/28/2021 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% — 0.60% —
4/28/2021 Retail Inventories MoM -0.20% — 0.00% —
4/28/2021 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% — 0.00% —
4/28/2021 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% — 0.25% —
4/28/2021 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% — 0.10% —
4/29/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 539k — 547k —
4/29/2021 Continuing Claims 3590k — 3674k —
4/29/2021 GDP Annualized QoQ 6.90% — 4.30% —
4/29/2021 Personal Consumption 10.50% — 2.30% —
4/29/2021 GDP Price Index 2.60% — 2.00% —
4/29/2021 Core PCE QoQ 2.40% — 1.30% —
4/29/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 54.2 —
4/29/2021 Pending Home Sales MoM 4.40% — -10.60% —
4/29/2021 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 27.50% — -2.70% —
4/30/2021 Employment Cost Index 0.70% — 0.70% —
4/30/2021 Personal Income 20.00% — -7.10% —
4/30/2021 Personal Spending 4.20% — -1.00% —
4/30/2021 Real Personal Spending 3.70% — -1.20% —
4/30/2021 PCE Deflator MoM 0.50% — 0.20% —
4/30/2021 PCE Deflator YoY 2.30% — 1.60% —
4/30/2021 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.10% —
4/30/2021 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.80% — 1.40% —
4/30/2021 MNI Chicago PMI 65.3 — 66.3 —
4/30/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 87.5 — 86.5 —
4/30/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 97.2 —
4/30/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 79.7 —
4/30/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.70% —
4/30/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

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