April 27, 2021 Headlines

Financial markets are relatively calm this morning with Treasuries and equity futures little changed to start the day. A Financial Times article today reports that several U.S. companies plan to raise prices soon due to rising input costs. Based on discussions with analysts during earnings calls, executives from companies such as Coca-Cola, Chipotle, Whirlpool, and Proctor & Gamble all said they were preparing to raise prices on products due to higher commodity costs. Lumber prices are at the highest level since futures began trading in 1985 and up 60% year-to-date. There could be some big inflation prints in the coming months, and if so, Fed leaders will be challenged in selling the “transitory” message to financial markets.    

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

4/27/2021FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%0.90%1.00%
4/27/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.10%1.17%1.20%1.25%
4/27/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA11.80%11.94%11.10%11.12%
4/27/2021S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA11.97%11.22%
4/27/2021Conf. Board Consumer Confidence113109.7
4/27/2021Conf. Board Present Situation110
4/27/2021Conf. Board Expectations109.6
4/27/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2217
4/28/2021MBA Mortgage Applications8.60%
4/28/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.0b-$86.7b-$87.1b
4/28/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.60%
4/28/2021Retail Inventories MoM-0.20%0.00%
4/28/2021FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
4/28/2021FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
4/28/2021Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
4/29/2021Initial Jobless Claims539k547k
4/29/2021Continuing Claims3590k3674k
4/29/2021GDP Annualized QoQ6.90%4.30%
4/29/2021Personal Consumption10.50%2.30%
4/29/2021GDP Price Index2.60%2.00%
4/29/2021Core PCE QoQ2.40%1.30%
4/29/2021Langer Consumer Comfort54.2
4/29/2021Pending Home Sales MoM4.40%-10.60%
4/29/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY27.50%-2.70%
4/30/2021Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
4/30/2021Personal Income20.00%-7.10%
4/30/2021Personal Spending4.20%-1.00%
4/30/2021Real Personal Spending3.70%-1.20%
4/30/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.20%
4/30/2021PCE Deflator YoY2.30%1.60%
4/30/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.10%
4/30/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY1.80%1.40%
4/30/2021MNI Chicago PMI65.366.3
4/30/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment87.586.5
4/30/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions97.2
4/30/2021U. of Mich. Expectations79.7
4/30/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%
4/30/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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