The Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as weak European data as well as rumors that two Italian anti-establishment parties might form a government together; these rumors were later denied. Equity markets rallied modestly in response to a historic deal between North and South Korea to end war and start the denuclearization process.

This morning’s release of Q1 GDP came in higher than expected at 2.3% vs 2.0%; this was a 0.6% decline from the prior quarter’s report, but the highest Q1 reading since 2015. Consumer spending, which makes up most of the economy, declined over the first three months of the year; but was offset business investment.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

04/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.280.10.880.98
04/23Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.256.555.6
04/23Markit US Services PMI54.154.454
04/23Markit US Composite PMI54.854.2
04/23Existing Home Sales5.55m5.60m5.54m
04/23Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%1.10%3.00%
04/24FHFA House Price Index MoM0.60%0.60%0.80%0.90%
04/24S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.70%0.83%0.75%0.81%
04/24S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.35%6.80%6.40%6.43%
04/24S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index206.67205.1205.16
04/24S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index197.01196.31196.18
04/24S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.34%6.18%6.11%
04/24New Home Sales630k694k618k667k
04/24New Home Sales MoM1.90%4.00%-0.60%3.60%
04/24Richmond Fed Manufact. Index16-315
04/24Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126128.7127.7127
04/24Conf. Board Present Situation159.6159.9158.1
04/24Conf. Board Expectations108.1106.2
04/25MBA Mortgage Applications-0.20%4.90%
04/26Initial Jobless Claims230k209k232k233k
04/26Continuing Claims1850k1837k1863k1866k
04/26Durable Goods Orders1.60%2.60%3.00%3.50%
04/26Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.00%1.00%0.90%
04/26Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.10%1.40%0.90%
04/26Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%-0.70%1.40%1.00%
04/26Advance Goods Trade Balance-$75.0b-$68.0b-$75.4b-$75.9b
04/26Retail Inventories MoM-0.40%0.40%
04/26Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.50%1.00%
04/26Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.558.1
04/26Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity172617
04/27Employment Cost Index0.70%0.80%0.60%
04/27Revisions: Employment Cost Index    
04/27GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%2.30%2.90%
04/27Personal Consumption1.10%1.10%4.00%
04/27GDP Price Index2.20%2.00%2.30%
04/27Core PCE QoQ2.50%2.50%1.90%
04/27U. of Mich. Sentiment9897.8
04/27U. of Mich. Current Conditions106.2115
04/27U. of Mich. Expectations86.8
04/27U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
04/27U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%