The Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as weak European data as well as rumors that two Italian anti-establishment parties might form a government together; these rumors were later denied. Equity markets rallied modestly in response to a historic deal between North and South Korea to end war and start the denuclearization process.
This morning’s release of Q1 GDP came in higher than expected at 2.3% vs 2.0%; this was a 0.6% decline from the prior quarter’s report, but the highest Q1 reading since 2015. Consumer spending, which makes up most of the economy, declined over the first three months of the year; but was offset business investment.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.28 | 0.1 | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| 04/23 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.2 | 56.5 | 55.6 | — |
| 04/23 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.4 | 54 | — |
| 04/23 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.8 | 54.2 | — |
| 04/23 | Existing Home Sales | 5.55m | 5.60m | 5.54m | — |
| 04/23 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | 1.10% | 3.00% | — |
| 04/24 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 04/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.70% | 0.83% | 0.75% | 0.81% |
| 04/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.35% | 6.80% | 6.40% | 6.43% |
| 04/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 206.67 | 205.1 | 205.16 |
| 04/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 197.01 | 196.31 | 196.18 |
| 04/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.34% | 6.18% | 6.11% |
| 04/24 | New Home Sales | 630k | 694k | 618k | 667k |
| 04/24 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.90% | 4.00% | -0.60% | 3.60% |
| 04/24 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 16 | -3 | 15 | — |
| 04/24 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126 | 128.7 | 127.7 | 127 |
| 04/24 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 159.6 | 159.9 | 158.1 |
| 04/24 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 108.1 | 106.2 | — |
| 04/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.20% | 4.90% | — |
| 04/26 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 209k | 232k | 233k |
| 04/26 | Continuing Claims | 1850k | 1837k | 1863k | 1866k |
| 04/26 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.60% | 2.60% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 04/26 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 04/26 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | -0.10% | 1.40% | 0.90% |
| 04/26 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | -0.70% | 1.40% | 1.00% |
| 04/26 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$75.0b | -$68.0b | -$75.4b | -$75.9b |
| 04/26 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | -0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 04/26 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | 0.50% | 1.00% | — |
| 04/26 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 57.5 | 58.1 | — |
| 04/26 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | 26 | 17 | — |
| 04/27 | Employment Cost Index | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.60% | — |
| 04/27 | Revisions: Employment Cost Index | ||||
| 04/27 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | 2.30% | 2.90% | — |
| 04/27 | Personal Consumption | 1.10% | 1.10% | 4.00% | — |
| 04/27 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | 2.00% | 2.30% | — |
| 04/27 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.50% | 2.50% | 1.90% | — |
| 04/27 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98 | — | 97.8 | — |
| 04/27 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 106.2 | — | 115 | — |
| 04/27 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.8 | — |
| 04/27 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 04/27 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |