The Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as weak European data as well as rumors that two Italian anti-establishment parties might form a government together; these rumors were later denied. Equity markets rallied modestly in response to a historic deal between North and South Korea to end war and start the denuclearization process.

This morning’s release of Q1 GDP came in higher than expected at 2.3% vs 2.0%; this was a 0.6% decline from the prior quarter’s report, but the highest Q1 reading since 2015. Consumer spending, which makes up most of the economy, declined over the first three months of the year; but was offset business investment.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.28 0.1 0.88 0.98
04/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56.5 55.6
04/23 Markit US Services PMI 54.1 54.4 54
04/23 Markit US Composite PMI 54.8 54.2
04/23 Existing Home Sales 5.55m 5.60m 5.54m
04/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 0.20% 1.10% 3.00%
04/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.60% 0.60% 0.80% 0.90%
04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.70% 0.83% 0.75% 0.81%
04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 6.35% 6.80% 6.40% 6.43%
04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 206.67 205.1 205.16
04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 197.01 196.31 196.18
04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 6.34% 6.18% 6.11%
04/24 New Home Sales 630k 694k 618k 667k
04/24 New Home Sales MoM 1.90% 4.00% -0.60% 3.60%
04/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 16 -3 15
04/24 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 126 128.7 127.7 127
04/24 Conf. Board Present Situation 159.6 159.9 158.1
04/24 Conf. Board Expectations 108.1 106.2
04/25 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.20% 4.90%
04/26 Initial Jobless Claims 230k 209k 232k 233k
04/26 Continuing Claims 1850k 1837k 1863k 1866k
04/26 Durable Goods Orders 1.60% 2.60% 3.00% 3.50%
04/26 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.00% 1.00% 0.90%
04/26 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% -0.10% 1.40% 0.90%
04/26 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.30% -0.70% 1.40% 1.00%
04/26 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$75.0b -$68.0b -$75.4b -$75.9b
04/26 Retail Inventories MoM -0.40% 0.40%
04/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.70% 0.50% 1.00%
04/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 57.5 58.1
04/26 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 17 26 17
04/27 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.80% 0.60%
04/27 Revisions: Employment Cost Index        
04/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.00% 2.30% 2.90%
04/27 Personal Consumption 1.10% 1.10% 4.00%
04/27 GDP Price Index 2.20% 2.00% 2.30%
04/27 Core PCE QoQ 2.50% 2.50% 1.90%
04/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 98 97.8
04/27 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 106.2 115
04/27 U. of Mich. Expectations 86.8
04/27 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
04/27 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.40%