April 28, 2022 Headlines

The first estimate of Q1 GDP showed the economy shrinking by 1.4%, below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.4 points. However, there were whispers from some firms ahead of the release that GDP would likely be negative due to a negative trade balance (imports exceeding exports) and inventories. Those whispers were spot on, as the change in inventories shed 84 bps from the topline GDP, and the widening trade deficit shed 320 bps. The trade imbalance was due to an outsized gain in imports relative to exports, which is reflective of strong domestic demand and reinforces the current narrative of an overheated economy and inflation worries. Treasuries yields initially moved slightly lower following the release but have since reversed course and resumed the sell-off that began overnight.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
04/25/22	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.45	0.44	0.51	0.54
04/25/22	Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories
04/25/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	5	1.1	8.7	—
04/26/22	Durable Goods Orders	1.00%	0.80%	-2.10%	-1.70%
04/26/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	1.10%	-0.60%	-0.50%
04/26/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	1.00%	-0.20%	-0.30%
04/26/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.20%	0.30%	0.20%
04/26/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.50%	2.10%	1.60%	—
04/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	2.39%	1.79%	1.71%
04/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	19.20%	20.20%	19.10%	18.94%
04/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.80%	19.17%	19.14%
04/26/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	108.2	107.3	107.2	107.6
04/26/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	152.6	153	153.8
04/26/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	77.2	76.6	76.7
04/26/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	9	14	13	—
04/26/22	New Home Sales	768k	763k	772k	835k
04/26/22	New Home Sales MoM	-0.60%	-8.60%	-2.00%	-1.20%
04/27/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-8.30%	-5.00%	—
04/27/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$105.0b	-$125.3b	-$106.6b	-$106.3b
04/27/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.50%	2.30%	2.50%	2.60%
04/27/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.40%	2.00%	1.10%	1.50%
04/27/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	-1.20%	-4.10%	-4.00%
04/27/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-8.10%	-8.90%	-5.40%	-5.20%
04/28/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	1.00%	-1.40%	6.90%	—
04/28/22	Personal Consumption	3.50%	2.70%	2.50%	—
04/28/22	GDP Price Index	7.20%	8.00%	7.10%	—
04/28/22	Core PCE QoQ	5.50%	5.20%	5.00%	—
04/28/22	Initial Jobless Claims	180k	180k	184k	185k
04/28/22	Continuing Claims	1399k	1408k	1417k	1409k
04/28/22	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	35	—	37	—
04/29/22	Employment Cost Index	1.10%	—	1.00%	—
04/29/22	Personal Income	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
04/29/22	Personal Spending	0.60%	—	0.20%	—
04/29/22	Real Personal Spending	-0.10%	—	-0.40%	—
04/29/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.90%	—	0.60%	—
04/29/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.70%	—	6.40%	—
04/29/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
04/29/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	5.30%	—	5.40%	—
04/29/22	MNI Chicago PMI	62	—	62.9	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	65.7	—	65.7	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	68	—	68.1	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	64.1	—	64.1	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.50%	—	5.40%	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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