Treasury yields are lower and flatter this morning as market participants react to the overnight Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision and multiple US data releases. In the first meeting of new BOJ governor Ueda, policymakers kept current rates unchanged but altered their forward guidance related to yield curve control (YCC). The change in guidance was expected, but the tone of the statement suggested a more patient approach to any such changes to the ultra-accommodative YCC program, easing market fears of any immediate actions. On the data front, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1.2% q/q in the first quarter, higher than expected (1.1%), and the prior quarter was revised higher from 1% to 1.1%. The March PCE report showed core inflation rising 0.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y, both as expected. The ECI and PCE data is unlikely to ease Fed leaders’ concerns over current price risks, but it hasn’t been enough so far to reverse this morning’s rally in Treasuries, which is likely fueled by the BOJ news and month-end demand.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/28/2023 | Employment Cost Index | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
| 4/28/2023 | Personal Income | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 4/28/2023 | Personal Spending | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 4/28/2023 | Real Personal Spending | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 4/28/2023 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
| 4/28/2023 | PCE Deflator YoY | 4.10% | 4.20% | 5.00% | 5.10% |
| 4/28/2023 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 4/28/2023 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.70% |
| 4/28/2023 | MNI Chicago PMI | 43.6 | — | 43.8 | — |
| 4/28/2023 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 63.5 | — | 63.5 | — |
| 4/28/2023 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 68.6 | — | 68.6 | — |
| 4/28/2023 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 60.4 | — | 60.3 | — |
| 4/28/2023 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.60% | — |
| 4/28/2023 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 4/28/2023 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4 | — |
| 5/1/2023 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | — | 50.4 | — |
| 5/1/2023 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/1/2023 | ISM Manufacturing | 46.8 | — | 46.3 | — |
| 5/1/2023 | ISM Prices Paid | 49 | — | 49.2 | — |
| 5/1/2023 | ISM Employment | — | — | 46.9 | — |
| 5/1/2023 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 44.3 | — |
| 5/2/2023 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 9931k | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Factory Orders | 1.40% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2023 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 14.70m | — | 14.82m | — |
| 5/3/2023 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 3.70% | — |
| 5/3/2023 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | — | 145k | — |
| 5/3/2023 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53.7 | — | 53.7 | — |
| 5/3/2023 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.5 | — |
| 5/3/2023 | ISM Services Index | 51.9 | — | 51.2 | — |
| 5/3/2023 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 59.5 | — |
| 5/3/2023 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 5/3/2023 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 5/3/2023 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 5/3/2023 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.00% | — | 4.75% | — |
| 5/3/2023 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.90% | — |
| 5/4/2023 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 319.40% | — |
| 5/4/2023 | Trade Balance | -$68.5b | — | -$70.5b | — |
| 5/4/2023 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.10% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/4/2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | 245k | — | 230k | — |
| 5/4/2023 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.70% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/4/2023 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1858k | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | — | 236k | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -17k | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Change in Private Payrolls | 154k | — | 189k | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -3k | — | -1k | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.60% | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 6.70% | — |
| 5/5/2023 | Consumer Credit | $17.250b | — | $15.290b | — |
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