April 28, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and flatter this morning as market participants react to the overnight Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision and multiple US data releases. In the first meeting of new BOJ governor Ueda, policymakers kept current rates unchanged but altered their forward guidance related to yield curve control (YCC). The change in guidance was expected, but the tone of the statement suggested a more patient approach to any such changes to the ultra-accommodative YCC program, easing market fears of any immediate actions. On the data front, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1.2% q/q in the first quarter, higher than expected (1.1%), and the prior quarter was revised higher from 1% to 1.1%. The March PCE report showed core inflation rising 0.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y, both as expected. The ECI and PCE data is unlikely to ease Fed leaders’ concerns over current price risks, but it hasn’t been enough so far to reverse this morning’s rally in Treasuries, which is likely fueled by the BOJ news and month-end demand.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

4/28/2023Employment Cost Index1.10%1.20%1.00%1.10%
4/28/2023Personal Income0.20%0.30%0.30%
4/28/2023Personal Spending-0.10%0.00%0.20%0.10%
4/28/2023Real Personal Spending-0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%
4/28/2023PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.30%
4/28/2023PCE Deflator YoY4.10%4.20%5.00%5.10%
4/28/2023PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%
4/28/2023PCE Core Deflator YoY4.60%4.60%4.60%4.70%
4/28/2023MNI Chicago PMI43.643.8
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment63.563.5
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions68.668.6
4/28/2023U. of Mich. Expectations60.460.3
4/28/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%
4/28/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%
4/28/2023Kansas City Fed Services Activity-4
5/1/2023S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.450.4
5/1/2023Construction Spending MoM0.20%-0.10%
5/1/2023ISM Manufacturing46.846.3
5/1/2023ISM Prices Paid4949.2
5/1/2023ISM Employment46.9
5/1/2023ISM New Orders44.3
5/2/2023JOLTS Job Openings9931k
5/2/2023Factory Orders1.40%-0.70%
5/2/2023Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.30%
5/2/2023Durable Goods Orders3.20%
5/2/2023Durables Ex Transportation0.30%
5/2/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.40%
5/2/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.40%
5/2/2023Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.70m14.82m
5/3/2023MBA Mortgage Applications3.70%
5/3/2023ADP Employment Change140k145k
5/3/2023S&P Global US Services PMI53.753.7
5/3/2023S&P Global US Composite PMI53.5
5/3/2023ISM Services Index51.951.2
5/3/2023ISM Services Prices Paid59.5
5/3/2023ISM Services Employment51.3
5/3/2023ISM Services New Orders52.2
5/3/2023FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.25%5.00%
5/3/2023FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.00%4.75%
5/3/2023Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.90%
5/4/2023Challenger Job Cuts YoY319.40%
5/4/2023Trade Balance-$68.5b-$70.5b
5/4/2023Nonfarm Productivity0.10%1.70%
5/4/2023Initial Jobless Claims245k230k
5/4/2023Unit Labor Costs3.70%3.20%
5/4/2023Continuing Claims1858k
5/5/2023Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k236k
5/5/2023Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-17k
5/5/2023Change in Private Payrolls154k189k
5/5/2023Change in Manufact. Payrolls-3k-1k
5/5/2023Unemployment Rate3.60%3.50%
5/5/2023Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
5/5/2023Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%4.20%
5/5/2023Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.4
5/5/2023Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%
5/5/2023Underemployment Rate6.70%
5/5/2023Consumer Credit$17.250b$15.290b

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