Treasury prices moved lower overnight with Japanese markets closed for the next two weeks, and S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open. This week will be a busy one with regards to macro events (FOMC meeting and busy data calendar). As was noted on Friday, the Q1 GDP report revealed higher than expected topline growth, but consumption and inflation data was more tepid. As such, the bond market rallied on increased speculation that the Fed may need to execute an “insurance” rate cut in the near future in order to combat disinflation pressures. There will be a press conference following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and market participants will be listening closely to Powell’s tone with regards to recent data and market performance (solid) and the lack of upward inflation pressures. While a change in the fed funds rate is not expected at the meeting this week, there is some speculation that the Committee may choose to adjust the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) by another 5 basis points.
March personal spending data was better than expected on both a gross and inflation-adjusted basis, but core PCE was unchanged on the month versus expectations of 0.1% growth. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE was up just 1.6% (1.7% expected). There was some concern that the March core PCE rate may come in as low as 1.5%, but a 1.6% rate still fuels market speculation that the FOMC doves may push harder for a rate cut at some point soon.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/29/19 | BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays) | ||||
| 04/29/19 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 04/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.70% | 0.90% | — | 0.10% |
| 04/29/19 | Personal Spending | — | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 04/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | 0.70% | — | 0.00% |
| 04/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 04/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | 1.50% | — | 1.30% |
| 04/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 04/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | 1.60% | — | 1.70% |
| 04/29/19 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 10 | — | 8.3 | — |
| 04/29/19 | Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing | ||||
| 04/30/19 | Employment Cost Index | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.20% | — | 0.11% | — |
| 04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.10% | — | 3.58% | — |
| 04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 213.08 | — | 212.41 | — |
| 04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.90% | — | 4.26% | — |
| 04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 204.71 | — |
| 04/30/19 | MNI Chicago PMI | 58.8 | — | 58.7 | — |
| 04/30/19 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.40% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 04/30/19 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.7 | — | 124.1 | — |
| 04/30/19 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.00% | — | -5.00% | — |
| 04/30/19 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 160.6 | — |
| 04/30/19 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 99.8 | — |
| 05/01/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -7.30% | — |
| 05/01/19 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | — | 129k | — |
| 05/01/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 05/01/19 | ISM Manufacturing | 55 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 05/01/19 | ISM Employment | — | — | 57.5 | — |
| 05/01/19 | ISM Prices Paid | 55 | — | 54.3 | — |
| 05/01/19 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 57.4 | — |
| 05/01/19 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/01/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 05/01/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.25% | — |
| 05/01/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 05/01/19 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | — | 17.50m | — |
| 05/02/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 230k | — |
| 05/02/19 | Continuing Claims | 1664k | — | 1655k | — |
| 05/02/19 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.30% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.50% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.8 | — |
| 05/02/19 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Factory Orders | 1.50% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 05/02/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.0b | — | — | — |
| 05/03/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 05/03/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 188k | — | 196k | — |
| 05/03/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 14k | — |
| 05/03/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 183k | — | 182k | — |
| 05/03/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | -6k | — |
| 05/03/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 05/03/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.00% | — | 63.00% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 05/03/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 52.9 | — | 52.9 | — |
| 05/03/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 | — |
| 05/03/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57 | — | 56.1 | — |
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