April 29, 2020 Headlines

A positive headline related to COVID-19 treatment this morning is boosting equity futures and partially reversing the overnight rally in Treasuries. Results from a National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases study on Gilead’s Remdesivir drug yielded positive results in treating COVID-19 patients. The advance estimate of Q1 GDP revealed a 4.8% decline in quarter-over-quarter growth (annualized), 80 bps worse than expected. Not surprisingly, consumer services took the biggest hit in Q1, with personal consumption plummeting 7.6% (-3.6% expected). Th. Treasury prices are drifting lower across the curve. Spain, Italy, and France have signaled tentative plans to reopen their economies, and the Bank of Japan announced increased stimulus efforts. The Fed will hold its first normally scheduled FOMC meeting this week since January after two emergency meetings in March, and the European Central Bank will also be holding a policy meeting. For the FOMC, there are no major policy changes expected, but market participants will naturally look for any clarifications on guidance or facilities. There is some question as to whether the FOMC might consider raising the IOER rate to 15 bps in an effort to lift the effective fed funds closer to the middle of the target range. However, the Fed may want to avoid the confusion of “raising rates” at this point.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/27/2020Revisions: Retail Trade
4/27/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-75-73.7-70—
4/28/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$55.0b-$64.2b-$59.9b—
4/28/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.40%-1.00%-0.70%-0.60%
4/28/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.90%-0.30%-0.40%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.35%0.45%0.30%0.35%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.19%3.47%3.08%3.12%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index—219.75218.62218.71
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.10%4.16%3.92%3.88%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—213.16212.43212.34
4/28/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence8786.9120118.8
4/28/2020Conf. Board Expectations—93.888.286.8
4/28/2020Conf. Board Present Situation—76.4167.7166.7
4/28/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-41-532—
4/29/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—-3.30%-0.30%—
4/29/2020GDP Annualized QoQ-4.00%-4.80%2.10%—
4/29/2020Personal Consumption-3.60%-7.60%1.80%—
4/29/2020GDP Price Index1.00%1.30%1.30%—
4/29/2020Core PCE QoQ1.70%1.80%1.30%—
4/29/2020Pending Home Sales MoM-13.60%—2.40%—
4/29/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-7.60%—11.50%—
4/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%—0.25%—
4/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%—0.00%—
4/29/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%—0.10%—
4/30/2020Personal Income-1.50%—0.60%—
4/30/2020Personal Spending-5.00%—0.20%—
4/30/2020Real Personal Spending-5.70%—0.10%—
4/30/2020PCE Deflator MoM-0.30%—0.10%—
4/30/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.30%—1.80%—
4/30/2020Initial Jobless Claims3500k—4427k—
4/30/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM-0.10%—0.20%—
4/30/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%—1.80%—
4/30/2020Continuing Claims19476k—15976k—
4/30/2020Employment Cost Index0.60%—0.70%—
4/30/2020MNI Chicago PMI37.7—47.8—
4/30/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——41.4—
5/1/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI36.7—36.9—
5/1/2020Construction Spending MoM-3.50%—-1.30%—
5/1/2020ISM Manufacturing36—49.1—
5/1/2020ISM New Orders30—42.2—
5/1/2020ISM Prices Paid33—37.4—
5/1/2020ISM Employment——43.8—
5/1/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales6.80m—11.37m—

 

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