A positive headline related to COVID-19 treatment this morning is boosting equity futures and partially reversing the overnight rally in Treasuries. Results from a National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases study on Gilead’s Remdesivir drug yielded positive results in treating COVID-19 patients. The advance estimate of Q1 GDP revealed a 4.8% decline in quarter-over-quarter growth (annualized), 80 bps worse than expected. Not surprisingly, consumer services took the biggest hit in Q1, with personal consumption plummeting 7.6% (-3.6% expected). Th. Treasury prices are drifting lower across the curve. Spain, Italy, and France have signaled tentative plans to reopen their economies, and the Bank of Japan announced increased stimulus efforts. The Fed will hold its first normally scheduled FOMC meeting this week since January after two emergency meetings in March, and the European Central Bank will also be holding a policy meeting. For the FOMC, there are no major policy changes expected, but market participants will naturally look for any clarifications on guidance or facilities. There is some question as to whether the FOMC might consider raising the IOER rate to 15 bps in an effort to lift the effective fed funds closer to the middle of the target range. However, the Fed may want to avoid the confusion of “raising rates” at this point.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
4/27/2020 | Revisions: Retail Trade | ||||
4/27/2020 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -75 | -73.7 | -70 | — |
4/28/2020 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$55.0b | -$64.2b | -$59.9b | — |
4/28/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.40% | -1.00% | -0.70% | -0.60% |
4/28/2020 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.90% | -0.30% | -0.40% |
4/28/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.35% | 0.45% | 0.30% | 0.35% |
4/28/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.19% | 3.47% | 3.08% | 3.12% |
4/28/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 219.75 | 218.62 | 218.71 |
4/28/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 4.10% | 4.16% | 3.92% | 3.88% |
4/28/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 213.16 | 212.43 | 212.34 |
4/28/2020 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 87 | 86.9 | 120 | 118.8 |
4/28/2020 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 93.8 | 88.2 | 86.8 |
4/28/2020 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 76.4 | 167.7 | 166.7 |
4/28/2020 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -41 | -53 | 2 | — |
4/29/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.30% | -0.30% | — |
4/29/2020 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -4.00% | -4.80% | 2.10% | — |
4/29/2020 | Personal Consumption | -3.60% | -7.60% | 1.80% | — |
4/29/2020 | GDP Price Index | 1.00% | 1.30% | 1.30% | — |
4/29/2020 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.30% | — |
4/29/2020 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -13.60% | — | 2.40% | — |
4/29/2020 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -7.60% | — | 11.50% | — |
4/29/2020 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | — | 0.25% | — |
4/29/2020 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
4/29/2020 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
4/30/2020 | Personal Income | -1.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
4/30/2020 | Personal Spending | -5.00% | — | 0.20% | — |
4/30/2020 | Real Personal Spending | -5.70% | — | 0.10% | — |
4/30/2020 | PCE Deflator MoM | -0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
4/30/2020 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.80% | — |
4/30/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 3500k | — | 4427k | — |
4/30/2020 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
4/30/2020 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.80% | — |
4/30/2020 | Continuing Claims | 19476k | — | 15976k | — |
4/30/2020 | Employment Cost Index | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
4/30/2020 | MNI Chicago PMI | 37.7 | — | 47.8 | — |
4/30/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 41.4 | — |
5/1/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 36.7 | — | 36.9 | — |
5/1/2020 | Construction Spending MoM | -3.50% | — | -1.30% | — |
5/1/2020 | ISM Manufacturing | 36 | — | 49.1 | — |
5/1/2020 | ISM New Orders | 30 | — | 42.2 | — |
5/1/2020 | ISM Prices Paid | 33 | — | 37.4 | — |
5/1/2020 | ISM Employment | — | — | 43.8 | — |
5/1/2020 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 6.80m | — | 11.37m | — |
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