April 29, 2020 Headlines

A positive headline related to COVID-19 treatment this morning is boosting equity futures and partially reversing the overnight rally in Treasuries. Results from a National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases study on Gilead’s Remdesivir drug yielded positive results in treating COVID-19 patients. The advance estimate of Q1 GDP revealed a 4.8% decline in quarter-over-quarter growth (annualized), 80 bps worse than expected. Not surprisingly, consumer services took the biggest hit in Q1, with personal consumption plummeting 7.6% (-3.6% expected). Th. Treasury prices are drifting lower across the curve. Spain, Italy, and France have signaled tentative plans to reopen their economies, and the Bank of Japan announced increased stimulus efforts. The Fed will hold its first normally scheduled FOMC meeting this week since January after two emergency meetings in March, and the European Central Bank will also be holding a policy meeting. For the FOMC, there are no major policy changes expected, but market participants will naturally look for any clarifications on guidance or facilities. There is some question as to whether the FOMC might consider raising the IOER rate to 15 bps in an effort to lift the effective fed funds closer to the middle of the target range. However, the Fed may want to avoid the confusion of “raising rates” at this point.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/27/2020	Revisions: Retail Trade
4/27/2020	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-75	-73.7	-70	—
4/28/2020	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$55.0b	-$64.2b	-$59.9b	—
4/28/2020	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.40%	-1.00%	-0.70%	-0.60%
4/28/2020	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	0.90%	-0.30%	-0.40%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.35%	0.45%	0.30%	0.35%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	3.19%	3.47%	3.08%	3.12%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	—	219.75	218.62	218.71
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	4.10%	4.16%	3.92%	3.88%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	213.16	212.43	212.34
4/28/2020	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	87	86.9	120	118.8
4/28/2020	Conf. Board Expectations	—	93.8	88.2	86.8
4/28/2020	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	76.4	167.7	166.7
4/28/2020	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-41	-53	2	—
4/29/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-3.30%	-0.30%	—
4/29/2020	GDP Annualized QoQ	-4.00%	-4.80%	2.10%	—
4/29/2020	Personal Consumption	-3.60%	-7.60%	1.80%	—
4/29/2020	GDP Price Index	1.00%	1.30%	1.30%	—
4/29/2020	Core PCE QoQ	1.70%	1.80%	1.30%	—
4/29/2020	Pending Home Sales MoM	-13.60%	—	2.40%	—
4/29/2020	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-7.60%	—	11.50%	—
4/29/2020	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	—	0.25%	—
4/29/2020	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
4/29/2020	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
4/30/2020	Personal Income	-1.50%	—	0.60%	—
4/30/2020	Personal Spending	-5.00%	—	0.20%	—
4/30/2020	Real Personal Spending	-5.70%	—	0.10%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Deflator MoM	-0.30%	—	0.10%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Deflator YoY	1.30%	—	1.80%	—
4/30/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	3500k	—	4427k	—
4/30/2020	PCE Core Deflator MoM	-0.10%	—	0.20%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.60%	—	1.80%	—
4/30/2020	Continuing Claims	19476k	—	15976k	—
4/30/2020	Employment Cost Index	0.60%	—	0.70%	—
4/30/2020	MNI Chicago PMI	37.7	—	47.8	—
4/30/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	41.4	—
5/1/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	36.7	—	36.9	—
5/1/2020	Construction Spending MoM	-3.50%	—	-1.30%	—
5/1/2020	ISM Manufacturing	36	—	49.1	—
5/1/2020	ISM New Orders	30	—	42.2	—
5/1/2020	ISM Prices Paid	33	—	37.4	—
5/1/2020	ISM Employment	—	—	43.8	—
5/1/2020	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	6.80m	—	11.37m	—

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