April 29, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are off to a strong start today following another dovish FOMC meeting, strong tech earnings, and a strong Q1 GDP report.  U.S. equity futures are up 50-110 bps ahead of the open, and Treasury yields are 3-4 bps higher for intermediate and long-end maturities. The Fed made very few changes to their official statement yesterday, and Chair Powell repeated that it’s not time yet for the Committee to even discuss tapering Fed bond purchases, much less rate hikes. As expected, Powell also reiterated the Fed’s belief that any near-term inflation will be transitory and reflective of base effects (year-over-year comparisons) and supply chain bottlenecks as economies reopen. The FOMC also chose to leave the IOER rate unchanged at 0.10%.

The first estimate of Q1 GDP showed growth rising 6.4% quarter-over-quarter (annualized), just below the 6.7% median economist survey rate by Bloomberg. The headline figure was negatively impacted by a big drawdown in inventories, which subtracted 2.6 percentage points from topline growth, and the price index (inflation gauge) was 1.5 points higher than expected at 4.1%. Personal consumption rose 10.7% in Q1 versus 10.5% expected and up from 2.3% in Q4. It was all about goods consumption in Q1, which jumped a massive 23.6% (-1.4% in prior quarter), and it would be a safe bet that stimulus checks played a part in this surge. Services consumption was more tepid at 4.6% (4.3% in prior quarter), but this component is expected to jump in Q2 and Q3 as the economy opens further.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/26/21Durable Goods Orders2.30%0.50%-1.20%-0.90%
04/26/21Durables Ex Transportation1.60%1.60%-0.90%-0.30%
04/26/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%0.90%-0.90%-0.80%
04/26/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.50%1.30%-1.10%
04/26/21Revisions: Retail Sales
04/26/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3037.328.9
04/27/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%0.90%1.00%
04/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.10%1.17%1.20%1.25%
04/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA11.80%11.94%11.10%11.12%
04/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA11.97%11.22%
04/27/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence113121.7109.7109
04/27/21Conf. Board Present Situation139.6110110.1
04/27/21Conf. Board Expectations109.8109.6108.3
04/27/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index221717
04/28/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%8.60%
04/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.0b-$90.6b-$86.7b-$87.1b
04/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%1.40%0.60%0.90%
04/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-1.40%0.00%0.10%
04/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
04/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
04/28/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
04/29/21Initial Jobless Claims540k553k547k566k
04/29/21Continuing Claims3590k3660k3674k3651k
04/29/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.70%6.40%4.30%
04/29/21Personal Consumption10.50%10.70%2.30%
04/29/21GDP Price Index2.60%4.10%2.00%
04/29/21Core PCE QoQ2.40%2.30%1.30%
04/29/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.2
04/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM4.40%-10.60%
04/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY27.50%-2.70%
04/30/21Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
04/30/21Personal Income20.00%-7.10%
04/30/21Personal Spending4.20%-1.00%
04/30/21Real Personal Spending3.70%-1.20%
04/30/21PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.20%
04/30/21PCE Deflator YoY2.30%1.60%
04/30/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.10%
04/30/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.80%1.40%
04/30/21MNI Chicago PMI6566.3
04/30/21U. of Mich. Sentiment87.586.5
04/30/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions97.2
04/30/21U. of Mich. Expectations79.7
04/30/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%
04/30/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.