April 29, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are off to a strong start today following another dovish FOMC meeting, strong tech earnings, and a strong Q1 GDP report.  U.S. equity futures are up 50-110 bps ahead of the open, and Treasury yields are 3-4 bps higher for intermediate and long-end maturities. The Fed made very few changes to their official statement yesterday, and Chair Powell repeated that it’s not time yet for the Committee to even discuss tapering Fed bond purchases, much less rate hikes. As expected, Powell also reiterated the Fed’s belief that any near-term inflation will be transitory and reflective of base effects (year-over-year comparisons) and supply chain bottlenecks as economies reopen. The FOMC also chose to leave the IOER rate unchanged at 0.10%.

The first estimate of Q1 GDP showed growth rising 6.4% quarter-over-quarter (annualized), just below the 6.7% median economist survey rate by Bloomberg. The headline figure was negatively impacted by a big drawdown in inventories, which subtracted 2.6 percentage points from topline growth, and the price index (inflation gauge) was 1.5 points higher than expected at 4.1%. Personal consumption rose 10.7% in Q1 versus 10.5% expected and up from 2.3% in Q4. It was all about goods consumption in Q1, which jumped a massive 23.6% (-1.4% in prior quarter), and it would be a safe bet that stimulus checks played a part in this surge. Services consumption was more tepid at 4.6% (4.3% in prior quarter), but this component is expected to jump in Q2 and Q3 as the economy opens further.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/26/21 Durable Goods Orders 2.30% 0.50% -1.20% -0.90%
04/26/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.60% 1.60% -0.90% -0.30%
04/26/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.70% 0.90% -0.90% -0.80%
04/26/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 1.50% 1.30% -1.10% —
04/26/21 Revisions: Retail Sales
04/26/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 30 37.3 28.9 —
04/27/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% —
04/27/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.10% 1.17% 1.20% 1.25%
04/27/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 11.80% 11.94% 11.10% 11.12%
04/27/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 11.97% 11.22% —
04/27/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 113 121.7 109.7 109
04/27/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 139.6 110 110.1
04/27/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 109.8 109.6 108.3
04/27/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 22 17 17 —
04/28/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.50% 8.60% —
04/28/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$88.0b -$90.6b -$86.7b -$87.1b
04/28/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 1.40% 0.60% 0.90%
04/28/21 Retail Inventories MoM -0.10% -1.40% 0.00% 0.10%
04/28/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% —
04/28/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% —
04/28/21 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% —
04/29/21 Initial Jobless Claims 540k 553k 547k 566k
04/29/21 Continuing Claims 3590k 3660k 3674k 3651k
04/29/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 6.70% 6.40% 4.30% —
04/29/21 Personal Consumption 10.50% 10.70% 2.30% —
04/29/21 GDP Price Index 2.60% 4.10% 2.00% —
04/29/21 Core PCE QoQ 2.40% 2.30% 1.30% —
04/29/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 54.2 —
04/29/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 4.40% — -10.60% —
04/29/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 27.50% — -2.70% —
04/30/21 Employment Cost Index 0.70% — 0.70% —
04/30/21 Personal Income 20.00% — -7.10% —
04/30/21 Personal Spending 4.20% — -1.00% —
04/30/21 Real Personal Spending 3.70% — -1.20% —
04/30/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.50% — 0.20% —
04/30/21 PCE Deflator YoY 2.30% — 1.60% —
04/30/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.10% —
04/30/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.80% — 1.40% —
04/30/21 MNI Chicago PMI 65 — 66.3 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 87.5 — 86.5 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 97.2 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 79.7 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.70% —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.