April 29, 2022 Headlines

The largest increase ever for a key wage inflation metric is sending front-end Treasury yields11-14 basis points higher in early trading. Strong inflation numbers from the Eurozone overnight are also contributing to the bearish tone in bonds today. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) surged 1.4% in the first quarter versus expectations of a 1.1% increase and the highest growth rate since records began in 1995. ECI is a preferred wage inflation gauge by the Fed because it is inclusive off bonuses and other in-kind benefits, and the Q1 figure was 20 bps above the previous record from 2003. In a separate report, personal spending, both nominal and inflation-adjusted, exceeded expectations in March, further fueling the hawkish narrative of strong consumer demand continuing to drive inflation pressures.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

04/25/22Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.450.440.510.54
04/25/22Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories
04/25/22Dallas Fed Manf. Activity51.18.7
04/26/22Durable Goods Orders1.00%0.80%-2.10%-1.70%
04/26/22Durables Ex Transportation0.60%1.10%-0.60%-0.50%
04/26/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.00%-0.20%-0.30%
04/26/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.20%0.30%0.20%
04/26/22FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%2.10%1.60%
04/26/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%2.39%1.79%1.71%
04/26/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA19.20%20.20%19.10%18.94%
04/26/22S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.80%19.17%19.14%
04/26/22Conf. Board Consumer Confidence108.2107.3107.2107.6
04/26/22Conf. Board Present Situation152.6153153.8
04/26/22Conf. Board Expectations77.276.676.7
04/26/22Richmond Fed Manufact. Index91413
04/26/22New Home Sales768k763k772k835k
04/26/22New Home Sales MoM-0.60%-8.60%-2.00%-1.20%
04/27/22MBA Mortgage Applications-8.30%-5.00%
04/27/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$105.0b-$125.3b-$106.6b-$106.3b
04/27/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.50%2.30%2.50%2.60%
04/27/22Retail Inventories MoM1.40%2.00%1.10%1.50%
04/27/22Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%-1.20%-4.10%-4.00%
04/27/22Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-8.10%-8.90%-5.40%-5.20%
04/28/22GDP Annualized QoQ1.00%-1.40%6.90%
04/28/22Personal Consumption3.50%2.70%2.50%
04/28/22GDP Price Index7.20%8.00%7.10%
04/28/22Core PCE QoQ5.50%5.20%5.00%
04/28/22Initial Jobless Claims180k180k184k185k
04/28/22Continuing Claims1399k1408k1417k1409k
04/28/22Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity352537
04/29/22Employment Cost Index1.10%1.40%1.00%
04/29/22Personal Income0.40%0.50%0.50%0.70%
04/29/22Personal Spending0.60%1.10%0.20%0.60%
04/29/22Real Personal Spending-0.10%0.20%-0.40%0.10%
04/29/22PCE Deflator MoM0.90%0.90%0.60%0.50%
04/29/22PCE Deflator YoY6.70%6.60%6.40%6.30%
04/29/22PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%0.30%
04/29/22PCE Core Deflator YoY5.30%5.20%5.40%5.30%
04/29/22MNI Chicago PMI6262.9
04/29/22U. of Mich. Sentiment65.765.7
04/29/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions6868.1
04/29/22U. of Mich. Expectations64.164.1
04/29/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.40%5.40%
04/29/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%

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