April 29, 2022 Headlines

The largest increase ever for a key wage inflation metric is sending front-end Treasury yields11-14 basis points higher in early trading. Strong inflation numbers from the Eurozone overnight are also contributing to the bearish tone in bonds today. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) surged 1.4% in the first quarter versus expectations of a 1.1% increase and the highest growth rate since records began in 1995. ECI is a preferred wage inflation gauge by the Fed because it is inclusive off bonuses and other in-kind benefits, and the Q1 figure was 20 bps above the previous record from 2003. In a separate report, personal spending, both nominal and inflation-adjusted, exceeded expectations in March, further fueling the hawkish narrative of strong consumer demand continuing to drive inflation pressures.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
04/25/22	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.45	0.44	0.51	0.54
04/25/22	Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories
04/25/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	5	1.1	8.7	—
04/26/22	Durable Goods Orders	1.00%	0.80%	-2.10%	-1.70%
04/26/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	1.10%	-0.60%	-0.50%
04/26/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	1.00%	-0.20%	-0.30%
04/26/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.20%	0.30%	0.20%
04/26/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.50%	2.10%	1.60%	—
04/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	2.39%	1.79%	1.71%
04/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	19.20%	20.20%	19.10%	18.94%
04/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.80%	19.17%	19.14%
04/26/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	108.2	107.3	107.2	107.6
04/26/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	152.6	153	153.8
04/26/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	77.2	76.6	76.7
04/26/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	9	14	13	—
04/26/22	New Home Sales	768k	763k	772k	835k
04/26/22	New Home Sales MoM	-0.60%	-8.60%	-2.00%	-1.20%
04/27/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-8.30%	-5.00%	—
04/27/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$105.0b	-$125.3b	-$106.6b	-$106.3b
04/27/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.50%	2.30%	2.50%	2.60%
04/27/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.40%	2.00%	1.10%	1.50%
04/27/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	-1.20%	-4.10%	-4.00%
04/27/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-8.10%	-8.90%	-5.40%	-5.20%
04/28/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	1.00%	-1.40%	6.90%	—
04/28/22	Personal Consumption	3.50%	2.70%	2.50%	—
04/28/22	GDP Price Index	7.20%	8.00%	7.10%	—
04/28/22	Core PCE QoQ	5.50%	5.20%	5.00%	—
04/28/22	Initial Jobless Claims	180k	180k	184k	185k
04/28/22	Continuing Claims	1399k	1408k	1417k	1409k
04/28/22	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	35	25	37	—
04/29/22	Employment Cost Index	1.10%	1.40%	1.00%	—
04/29/22	Personal Income	0.40%	0.50%	0.50%	0.70%
04/29/22	Personal Spending	0.60%	1.10%	0.20%	0.60%
04/29/22	Real Personal Spending	-0.10%	0.20%	-0.40%	0.10%
04/29/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.90%	0.90%	0.60%	0.50%
04/29/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.70%	6.60%	6.40%	6.30%
04/29/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%
04/29/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	5.30%	5.20%	5.40%	5.30%
04/29/22	MNI Chicago PMI	62	—	62.9	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	65.7	—	65.7	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	68	—	68.1	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	64.1	—	64.1	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.40%	—	5.40%	—
04/29/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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