Treasury prices are higher this morning with buyers emerging following yesterday’s big sell off. There were no major macro headlines overnight, and U.S. equities appear poised to take a breather following yesterday’s 1.2% rally (S&P 500 futures unchanged). The Fed announced that it will hold a two-day conference in June to review monetary policy tools, including a deeper discussion of average inflation targeting. The conference will include leading academics, as well as union members, community groups, and others that might offer a different perspective on central bank policies. The New York Times is reporting that U.S. and Chinese officials are inching closer to an agreement that could be potentially be wrapped up this month.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
4/1/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%-0.20%0.20%0.70%
04/01/19Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%-0.40%0.90%1.40%
04/01/19Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.60%1.20%1.70%
04/01/19Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.20%1.10%1.70%
04/01/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.552.452.5
04/01/19ISM Manufacturing54.555.354.2
04/01/19ISM Employment57.552.3
04/01/19ISM Prices Paid52.554.349.4
04/01/19ISM New Orders57.455.5
04/01/19Construction Spending MoM-0.20%1.00%1.30%2.50%
04/01/19Business Inventories0.50%0.80%0.60%0.80%
04/02/19Durable Goods Orders-1.80%-1.60%0.30%0.10%
04/02/19Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.10%-0.20%-0.10%
04/02/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.10%0.80%0.90%
04/02/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.00%0.80%1.00%
04/02/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.56m
04/03/19MBA Mortgage Applications8.90%
04/03/19ADP Employment Change175k183k
04/03/19Markit US Services PMI54.854.8
04/03/19Markit US Composite PMI54.3
04/03/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5859.7
04/04/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY117.20%
04/04/19Initial Jobless Claims215k211k
04/04/19Continuing Claims1752k1756k
04/04/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60
04/05/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls179k20k
04/05/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
04/05/19Change in Private Payrolls177k25k
04/05/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k4k
04/05/19Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
04/05/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%
04/05/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%3.40%
04/05/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.4
04/05/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%
04/05/19Underemployment Rate7.30%
04/05/19Consumer Credit$17.000b$17.049b