Treasury prices are higher this morning with buyers emerging following yesterday’s big sell off. There were no major macro headlines overnight, and U.S. equities appear poised to take a breather following yesterday’s 1.2% rally (S&P 500 futures unchanged). The Fed announced that it will hold a two-day conference in June to review monetary policy tools, including a deeper discussion of average inflation targeting. The conference will include leading academics, as well as union members, community groups, and others that might offer a different perspective on central bank policies. The New York Times is reporting that U.S. and Chinese officials are inching closer to an agreement that could be potentially be wrapped up this month.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/1/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.20% | 0.20% | 0.70% |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | -0.40% | 0.90% | 1.40% |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.60% | 1.20% | 1.70% |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | -0.20% | 1.10% | 1.70% |
| 04/01/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | 52.4 | 52.5 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM Manufacturing | 54.5 | 55.3 | 54.2 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM Employment | — | 57.5 | 52.3 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM Prices Paid | 52.5 | 54.3 | 49.4 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM New Orders | — | 57.4 | 55.5 | — |
| 04/01/19 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.20% | 1.00% | 1.30% | 2.50% |
| 04/01/19 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 04/02/19 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.80% | -1.60% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 04/02/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 04/02/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 04/02/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 04/02/19 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | — | 16.56m | — |
| 04/03/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 8.90% | — |
| 04/03/19 | ADP Employment Change | 175k | — | 183k | — |
| 04/03/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.8 | — | 54.8 | — |
| 04/03/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.3 | — |
| 04/03/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 58 | — | 59.7 | — |
| 04/04/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 117.20% | — |
| 04/04/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 211k | — |
| 04/04/19 | Continuing Claims | 1752k | — | 1756k | — |
| 04/04/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60 | — |
| 04/05/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 179k | — | 20k | — |
| 04/05/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 04/05/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 177k | — | 25k | — |
| 04/05/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | 4k | — |
| 04/05/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 04/05/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 63.20% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | — | $17.049b | — |