Treasury prices are higher this morning with buyers emerging following yesterday’s big sell off. There were no major macro headlines overnight, and U.S. equities appear poised to take a breather following yesterday’s 1.2% rally (S&P 500 futures unchanged). The Fed announced that it will hold a two-day conference in June to review monetary policy tools, including a deeper discussion of average inflation targeting. The conference will include leading academics, as well as union members, community groups, and others that might offer a different perspective on central bank policies. The New York Times is reporting that U.S. and Chinese officials are inching closer to an agreement that could be potentially be wrapped up this month.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
4/1/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% -0.20% 0.20% 0.70%
04/01/19 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.30% -0.40% 0.90% 1.40%
04/01/19 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% -0.60% 1.20% 1.70%
04/01/19 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.20% 1.10% 1.70%
04/01/19 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.4 52.5
04/01/19 ISM Manufacturing 54.5 55.3 54.2
04/01/19 ISM Employment 57.5 52.3
04/01/19 ISM Prices Paid 52.5 54.3 49.4
04/01/19 ISM New Orders 57.4 55.5
04/01/19 Construction Spending MoM -0.20% 1.00% 1.30% 2.50%
04/01/19 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.80% 0.60% 0.80%
04/02/19 Durable Goods Orders -1.80% -1.60% 0.30% 0.10%
04/02/19 Durables Ex Transportation 0.10% 0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
04/02/19 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.10% -0.10% 0.80% 0.90%
04/02/19 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.10% 0.00% 0.80% 1.00%
04/02/19 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.80m 16.56m
04/03/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 8.90%
04/03/19 ADP Employment Change 175k 183k
04/03/19 Markit US Services PMI 54.8 54.8
04/03/19 Markit US Composite PMI 54.3
04/03/19 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 58 59.7
04/04/19 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 117.20%
04/04/19 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 211k
04/04/19 Continuing Claims 1752k 1756k
04/04/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 60
04/05/19 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 179k 20k
04/05/19 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
04/05/19 Change in Private Payrolls 177k 25k
04/05/19 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 10k 4k
04/05/19 Unemployment Rate 3.80% 3.80%
04/05/19 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.40%
04/05/19 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.40% 3.40%
04/05/19 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.4
04/05/19 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20%
04/05/19 Underemployment Rate 7.30%
04/05/19 Consumer Credit $17.000b $17.049b