Treasury prices are lower this morning following a quiet overnight session for all financial markets (Europe, Hong Kong, and Australia closed for holiday), and U.S. equities are poised to open lower today. S&P 500 futures are currently down 9 points after China announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 25% on 128 different types of U.S. imports. The reaction from China was not a major surprise, but there is still some anxiousness from investors that a larger trade war will ensue. Continuing on the trade front, the tone surrounding NAFTA negotiations had improved markedly in recent weeks, but President Trump ratcheted up the rhetoric once again over the weekend with a tweet criticizing Mexico on its efforts to slow illegal immigration into the United States.
This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the March jobs report on Friday. Most market participants will again be more focused on the wage growth data within the report as it relates to further labor market tightening and general inflation pressures. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, beginning with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari later today. Kashkari held a more dovish policy view for much of last year, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his economic outlook on Friday.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
| 04/02/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Mar F | 55.7 | — | 55.7 |
| 04/02/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | Feb | 0.40% | — | 0.00% |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | Mar | 59.7 | — | 60.8 |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM Employment | Mar | — | — | 59.7 |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | Mar | 72.5 | — | 74.2 |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM New Orders | Mar | — | — | 64.2 |
| 04/03/2018 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | Mar | 13.10m | — | 12.94m |
| 04/03/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Mar | 16.90m | — | 16.96m |
| 04/04/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 30-Mar | — | — | 4.80% |
| 04/04/2018 | ADP Employment Change | Mar | 210k | — | 235k |
| 04/04/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | Mar F | 54.2 | — | 54.1 |
| 04/04/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | Mar F | — | — | 54.3 |
| 04/04/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Mar | 59 | — | 59.5 |
| 04/04/2018 | Factory Orders | Feb | 1.70% | — | -1.40% |
| 04/04/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | Feb | — | — | 0.40% |
| 04/04/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | Feb F | — | — | 3.10% |
| 04/04/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | Feb F | — | — | 1.20% |
| 04/04/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Feb F | — | — | 1.80% |
| 04/04/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Feb F | — | — | 1.40% |
| 04/05/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | Mar | — | — | -4.30% |
| 04/05/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 31-Mar | 225k | — | 215k |
| 04/05/2018 | Continuing Claims | 24-Mar | 1843k | — | 1871k |
| 04/05/2018 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$56.8b | — | -$56.6b |
| 04/05/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 1-Apr | — | — | 56.8 |
| 04/06/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Mar | 187k | — | 313k |
| 04/06/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Mar | — | — | — |
| 04/06/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | Mar | 195k | — | 287k |
| 04/06/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Mar | 24k | — | 31k |
| 04/06/2018 | Unemployment Rate | Mar | 4.00% | — | 4.10% |
| 04/06/2018 | Underemployment Rate | Mar | — | — | 8.20% |
| 04/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Mar | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 04/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Mar | 2.70% | — | 2.60% |
| 04/06/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Mar | 34.5 | — | 34.5 |
| 04/06/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Mar | — | — | 63.00% |
| 04/06/2018 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $15.000b | — | $13.906b |