Treasury prices are lower this morning following a quiet overnight session for all financial markets (Europe, Hong Kong, and Australia closed for holiday), and U.S. equities are poised to open lower today. S&P 500 futures are currently down 9 points after China announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 25% on 128 different types of U.S. imports. The reaction from China was not a major surprise, but there is still some anxiousness from investors that a larger trade war will ensue. Continuing on the trade front, the tone surrounding NAFTA negotiations had improved markedly in recent weeks, but President Trump ratcheted up the rhetoric once again over the weekend with a tweet criticizing Mexico on its efforts to slow illegal immigration into the United States.

This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the March jobs report on Friday. Most market participants will again be more focused on the wage growth data within the report as it relates to further labor market tightening and general inflation pressures. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, beginning with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari later today. Kashkari held a more dovish policy view for much of last year, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his economic outlook on Friday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
04/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMIMar F55.755.7
04/02/2018Construction Spending MoMFeb0.40%0.00%
04/02/2018ISM ManufacturingMar59.760.8
04/02/2018ISM EmploymentMar59.7
04/02/2018ISM Prices PaidMar72.574.2
04/02/2018ISM New OrdersMar64.2
04/03/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesMar13.10m12.94m
04/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle SalesMar16.90m16.96m
04/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications30-Mar4.80%
04/04/2018ADP Employment ChangeMar210k235k
04/04/2018Markit US Services PMIMar F54.254.1
04/04/2018Markit US Composite PMIMar F54.3
04/04/2018ISM Non-Manf. CompositeMar5959.5
04/04/2018Factory OrdersFeb1.70%-1.40%
04/04/2018Factory Orders Ex TransFeb0.40%
04/04/2018Durable Goods OrdersFeb F3.10%
04/04/2018Durables Ex TransportationFeb F1.20%
04/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirFeb F1.80%
04/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirFeb F1.40%
04/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoYMar-4.30%
04/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims31-Mar225k215k
04/05/2018Continuing Claims24-Mar1843k1871k
04/05/2018Trade BalanceFeb-$56.8b-$56.6b
04/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort1-Apr56.8
04/06/2018Change in Nonfarm PayrollsMar187k313k
04/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionMar
04/06/2018Change in Private PayrollsMar195k287k
04/06/2018Change in Manufact. PayrollsMar24k31k
04/06/2018Unemployment RateMar4.00%4.10%
04/06/2018Underemployment RateMar8.20%
04/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoMMar0.30%0.10%
04/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoYMar2.70%2.60%
04/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesMar34.534.5
04/06/2018Labor Force Participation RateMar63.00%
04/06/2018Consumer CreditFeb$15.000b$13.906b