April 30, 2019 Headlines

The price action in Treasuries was mixed overnight, with yields initially falling on softer PMI data from China before recovering following stronger inflation data from Germany. Major global equity indices are little changed today, and S&P 500 futures are flat at the moment. Recent remarks from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggest a trade deal with China could be reached as early as next week when a Chinese delegation travels to Washington (May 8), but he also acknowledged that U.S. officials won’t know whether there’s a deal until next week’s talks conclude (i.e., not a forgone conclusion at this point). The Employment Cost Index (ECI) held steady at 0.7% in Q1, as expected. This is just below the cycle high of 0.8% reached on three separate occasions over the last two years and nearly 20 bps above the post-crisis average for the index. The ECI is a preferred measure of personal income by Fed officials because it also tracks non-salary income such as bonuses and other non-compensation benefits.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
04/29/19	BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays)
04/29/19	Personal Income	0.40%	0.10%	0.20%	—
04/29/19	Personal Spending	0.30%	0.10%	0.10%	0.30%
04/29/19	Personal Spending	0.70%	0.90%	—	0.10%
04/29/19	Real Personal Spending	0.50%	0.70%	—	0.00%
04/29/19	PCE Deflator MoM	0.30%	0.20%	—	0.10%
04/29/19	PCE Deflator YoY	1.60%	1.50%	—	1.30%
04/29/19	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.10%	0.00%	—	0.10%
04/29/19	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.70%	1.60%	—	1.70%
04/29/19	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	10	2	8.3	6.9
04/29/19	Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing
04/30/19	Employment Cost Index	0.70%	0.70%	0.70%	—
04/30/19	Revisions: Employment Cost Index
04/30/19	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.20%	0.20%	0.11%	0.09%
04/30/19	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	2.95%	3.00%	3.58%	3.51%
04/30/19	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	213.08	212.7	212.41	212.27
04/30/19	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	3.90%	4.01%	4.26%	4.22%
04/30/19	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	205.04	204.71	204.62
04/30/19	MNI Chicago PMI	58.5	52.6	58.7	—
04/30/19	Pending Home Sales MoM	1.50%	3.80%	-1.00%	—
04/30/19	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-4.00%	-3.20%	-5.00%	—
04/30/19	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	126.8	129.2	124.1	124.2
04/30/19	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	168.3	160.6	163
04/30/19	Conf. Board Expectations	—	103	99.8	98.3
05/01/19	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-7.30%	—
05/01/19	ADP Employment Change	180k	—	129k	—
05/01/19	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52.4	—	52.4	—
05/01/19	ISM Manufacturing	55	—	55.3	—
05/01/19	ISM Employment	—	—	57.5	—
05/01/19	ISM Prices Paid	55	—	54.3	—
05/01/19	ISM New Orders	—	—	57.4	—
05/01/19	Construction Spending MoM	0.00%	—	1.00%	—
05/01/19	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	2.50%	—	2.50%	—
05/01/19	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	2.25%	—	2.25%	—
05/01/19	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	2.40%	—	2.40%	—
05/01/19	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	17.00m	—	17.50m	—
05/02/19	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	0.40%	—
05/02/19	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	230k	—
05/02/19	Continuing Claims	1664k	—	1655k	—
05/02/19	Nonfarm Productivity	2.30%	—	1.90%	—
05/02/19	Unit Labor Costs	1.50%	—	2.00%	—
05/02/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	60.8	—
05/02/19	Durable Goods Orders	—	—	2.70%	—
05/02/19	Factory Orders	1.50%	—	-0.50%	—
05/02/19	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	0.40%	—
05/02/19	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.30%	—
05/02/19	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.30%	—
05/02/19	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.20%	—
05/03/19	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$73.0b	—	—	—
05/03/19	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
05/03/19	Retail Inventories MoM	0.10%	—	—	—
05/03/19	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	187k	—	196k	—
05/03/19	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	14k	—
05/03/19	Change in Private Payrolls	185k	—	182k	—
05/03/19	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	10k	—	-6k	—
05/03/19	Unemployment Rate	3.80%	—	3.80%	—
05/03/19	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.10%	—
05/03/19	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.30%	—	3.20%	—
05/03/19	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.5	—	34.5	—
05/03/19	Labor Force Participation Rate	63.00%	—	63.00%	—
05/03/19	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.30%	—
05/03/19	Markit US Services PMI	52.9	—	52.9	—
05/03/19	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	52.8	—
05/03/19	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	57	—	56.1	—

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