April 30, 2019 Headlines

The price action in Treasuries was mixed overnight, with yields initially falling on softer PMI data from China before recovering following stronger inflation data from Germany. Major global equity indices are little changed today, and S&P 500 futures are flat at the moment. Recent remarks from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggest a trade deal with China could be reached as early as next week when a Chinese delegation travels to Washington (May 8), but he also acknowledged that U.S. officials won’t know whether there’s a deal until next week’s talks conclude (i.e., not a forgone conclusion at this point). The Employment Cost Index (ECI) held steady at 0.7% in Q1, as expected. This is just below the cycle high of 0.8% reached on three separate occasions over the last two years and nearly 20 bps above the post-crisis average for the index. The ECI is a preferred measure of personal income by Fed officials because it also tracks non-salary income such as bonuses and other non-compensation benefits.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/29/19BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays)
04/29/19Personal Income0.40%0.10%0.20%
04/29/19Personal Spending0.30%0.10%0.10%0.30%
04/29/19Personal Spending0.70%0.90%0.10%
04/29/19Real Personal Spending0.50%0.70%0.00%
04/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%
04/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%1.30%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.10%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%1.70%
04/29/19Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1028.36.9
04/29/19Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing
04/30/19Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.70%
04/30/19Revisions: Employment Cost Index
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.20%0.11%0.09%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.95%3.00%3.58%3.51%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.08212.7212.41212.27
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.90%4.01%4.26%4.22%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.04204.71204.62
04/30/19MNI Chicago PMI58.552.658.7
04/30/19Pending Home Sales MoM1.50%3.80%-1.00%
04/30/19Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.00%-3.20%-5.00%
04/30/19Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.8129.2124.1124.2
04/30/19Conf. Board Present Situation168.3160.6163
04/30/19Conf. Board Expectations10399.898.3
05/01/19MBA Mortgage Applications-7.30%
05/01/19ADP Employment Change180k129k
05/01/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.452.4
05/01/19ISM Manufacturing5555.3
05/01/19ISM Employment57.5
05/01/19ISM Prices Paid5554.3
05/01/19ISM New Orders57.4
05/01/19Construction Spending MoM0.00%1.00%
05/01/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.50%
05/01/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.25%
05/01/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%2.40%
05/01/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.50m
05/02/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY0.40%
05/02/19Initial Jobless Claims215k230k
05/02/19Continuing Claims1664k1655k
05/02/19Nonfarm Productivity2.30%1.90%
05/02/19Unit Labor Costs1.50%2.00%
05/02/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.8
05/02/19Durable Goods Orders2.70%
05/02/19Factory Orders1.50%-0.50%
05/02/19Durables Ex Transportation0.40%
05/02/19Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
05/02/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.30%
05/02/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
05/03/19Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.0b
05/03/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
05/03/19Retail Inventories MoM0.10%
05/03/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls187k196k
05/03/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision14k
05/03/19Change in Private Payrolls185k182k
05/03/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k-6k
05/03/19Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
05/03/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
05/03/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%3.20%
05/03/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
05/03/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%63.00%
05/03/19Underemployment Rate7.30%
05/03/19Markit US Services PMI52.952.9
05/03/19Markit US Composite PMI52.8
05/03/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5756.1

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