April 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning following the release of a weak European GDP report and another jump in U.S. initial jobless claims. The 2-year Treasury yield is back below 0.20%, and S&P 500 futures are down nearly 1% before the open. The European Central Bank (ECB) expanded emergency lending facilities, and ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone economy could shrink by 12% in 2020. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 25 exceeded expectations at 3.84 million, but continuing jobless claims were below consensus at 17.99 million (19.48 million expected). Yesterday’s FOMC statement and press conference essentially reinforced current market expectations. Monetary policy is going to remain extraordinarily accommodative for the foreseeable future, and Powell said the Fed stands ready “to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively” as needed to support the economy. If anything, the tone from the Fed yesterday was more somber relative to several weeks ago, acknowledging that we won’t be able to simply flip a switch to turn the U.S. economy back on.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/27/2020 Revisions: Retail Trade
4/27/2020 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -75 -73.7 -70
4/28/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$55.0b -$64.2b -$59.9b
4/28/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.40% -1.00% -0.70% -0.60%
4/28/2020 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.90% -0.30% -0.40%
4/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.35% 0.45% 0.30% 0.35%
4/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.19% 3.47% 3.08% 3.12%
4/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 219.75 218.62 218.71
4/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.10% 4.16% 3.92% 3.88%
4/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 213.16 212.43 212.34
4/28/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 87 86.9 120 118.8
4/28/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 93.8 88.2 86.8
4/28/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 76.4 167.7 166.7
4/28/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -41 -53 2
4/29/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.30% -0.30%
4/29/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ -4.00% -4.80% 2.10%
4/29/2020 Personal Consumption -3.60% -7.60% 1.80%
4/29/2020 GDP Price Index 1.00% 1.30% 1.30%
4/29/2020 Core PCE QoQ 1.70% 1.80% 1.30%
4/29/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM -14.30% -20.80% 2.40% 2.30%
4/29/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -7.60% -14.50% 11.50% 11.40%
4/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
4/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4/29/2020 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
4/30/2020 Personal Income -1.70% -2.00% 0.60%
4/30/2020 Personal Spending -5.10% -7.50% 0.20%
4/30/2020 Real Personal Spending -6.20% -7.30% 0.10%
4/30/2020 PCE Deflator MoM -0.30% -0.30% 0.10%
4/30/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.30% 1.30% 1.80%
4/30/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM -0.10% -0.10% 0.20%
4/30/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%
4/30/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 3500k 3839k 4427k 4442k
4/30/2020 Continuing Claims 19476k 17992k 15976k 15818k
4/30/2020 Employment Cost Index 0.60% 0.80% 0.70%
4/30/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 36.9 47.8
4/30/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.4
5/1/2020 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 36.7 36.9
5/1/2020 Construction Spending MoM -3.50% -1.30%
5/1/2020 ISM Manufacturing 36 49.1
5/1/2020 ISM New Orders 30 42.2
5/1/2020 ISM Prices Paid 33 37.4
5/1/2020 ISM Employment 43.8
5/1/2020 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 6.80m 11.37m

 

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