April 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning following the release of a weak European GDP report and another jump in U.S. initial jobless claims. The 2-year Treasury yield is back below 0.20%, and S&P 500 futures are down nearly 1% before the open. The European Central Bank (ECB) expanded emergency lending facilities, and ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone economy could shrink by 12% in 2020. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 25 exceeded expectations at 3.84 million, but continuing jobless claims were below consensus at 17.99 million (19.48 million expected). Yesterday’s FOMC statement and press conference essentially reinforced current market expectations. Monetary policy is going to remain extraordinarily accommodative for the foreseeable future, and Powell said the Fed stands ready “to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively” as needed to support the economy. If anything, the tone from the Fed yesterday was more somber relative to several weeks ago, acknowledging that we won’t be able to simply flip a switch to turn the U.S. economy back on.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

4/27/2020Revisions: Retail Trade
4/27/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-75-73.7-70
4/28/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$55.0b-$64.2b-$59.9b
4/28/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.40%-1.00%-0.70%-0.60%
4/28/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.90%-0.30%-0.40%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.35%0.45%0.30%0.35%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.19%3.47%3.08%3.12%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index219.75218.62218.71
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.10%4.16%3.92%3.88%
4/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index213.16212.43212.34
4/28/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence8786.9120118.8
4/28/2020Conf. Board Expectations93.888.286.8
4/28/2020Conf. Board Present Situation76.4167.7166.7
4/28/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-41-532
4/29/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%-0.30%
4/29/2020GDP Annualized QoQ-4.00%-4.80%2.10%
4/29/2020Personal Consumption-3.60%-7.60%1.80%
4/29/2020GDP Price Index1.00%1.30%1.30%
4/29/2020Core PCE QoQ1.70%1.80%1.30%
4/29/2020Pending Home Sales MoM-14.30%-20.80%2.40%2.30%
4/29/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-7.60%-14.50%11.50%11.40%
4/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
4/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
4/29/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
4/30/2020Personal Income-1.70%-2.00%0.60%
4/30/2020Personal Spending-5.10%-7.50%0.20%
4/30/2020Real Personal Spending-6.20%-7.30%0.10%
4/30/2020PCE Deflator MoM-0.30%-0.30%0.10%
4/30/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.30%1.30%1.80%
4/30/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM-0.10%-0.10%0.20%
4/30/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.70%1.80%
4/30/2020Initial Jobless Claims3500k3839k4427k4442k
4/30/2020Continuing Claims19476k17992k15976k15818k
4/30/2020Employment Cost Index0.60%0.80%0.70%
4/30/2020MNI Chicago PMI36.947.8
4/30/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort41.4
5/1/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI36.736.9
5/1/2020Construction Spending MoM-3.50%-1.30%
5/1/2020ISM Manufacturing3649.1
5/1/2020ISM New Orders3042.2
5/1/2020ISM Prices Paid3337.4
5/1/2020ISM Employment43.8
5/1/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales6.80m11.37m


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