April 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning following the release of a weak European GDP report and another jump in U.S. initial jobless claims. The 2-year Treasury yield is back below 0.20%, and S&P 500 futures are down nearly 1% before the open. The European Central Bank (ECB) expanded emergency lending facilities, and ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone economy could shrink by 12% in 2020. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 25 exceeded expectations at 3.84 million, but continuing jobless claims were below consensus at 17.99 million (19.48 million expected). Yesterday’s FOMC statement and press conference essentially reinforced current market expectations. Monetary policy is going to remain extraordinarily accommodative for the foreseeable future, and Powell said the Fed stands ready “to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively” as needed to support the economy. If anything, the tone from the Fed yesterday was more somber relative to several weeks ago, acknowledging that we won’t be able to simply flip a switch to turn the U.S. economy back on.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
4/27/2020	Revisions: Retail Trade
4/27/2020	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-75	-73.7	-70	—
4/28/2020	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$55.0b	-$64.2b	-$59.9b	—
4/28/2020	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.40%	-1.00%	-0.70%	-0.60%
4/28/2020	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	0.90%	-0.30%	-0.40%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.35%	0.45%	0.30%	0.35%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	3.19%	3.47%	3.08%	3.12%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	—	219.75	218.62	218.71
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	4.10%	4.16%	3.92%	3.88%
4/28/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	213.16	212.43	212.34
4/28/2020	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	87	86.9	120	118.8
4/28/2020	Conf. Board Expectations	—	93.8	88.2	86.8
4/28/2020	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	76.4	167.7	166.7
4/28/2020	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-41	-53	2	—
4/29/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-3.30%	-0.30%	—
4/29/2020	GDP Annualized QoQ	-4.00%	-4.80%	2.10%	—
4/29/2020	Personal Consumption	-3.60%	-7.60%	1.80%	—
4/29/2020	GDP Price Index	1.00%	1.30%	1.30%	—
4/29/2020	Core PCE QoQ	1.70%	1.80%	1.30%	—
4/29/2020	Pending Home Sales MoM	-14.30%	-20.80%	2.40%	2.30%
4/29/2020	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-7.60%	-14.50%	11.50%	11.40%
4/29/2020	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
4/29/2020	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
4/29/2020	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
4/30/2020	Personal Income	-1.70%	-2.00%	0.60%	—
4/30/2020	Personal Spending	-5.10%	-7.50%	0.20%	—
4/30/2020	Real Personal Spending	-6.20%	-7.30%	0.10%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Deflator MoM	-0.30%	-0.30%	0.10%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Deflator YoY	1.30%	1.30%	1.80%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Core Deflator MoM	-0.10%	-0.10%	0.20%	—
4/30/2020	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.60%	1.70%	1.80%	—
4/30/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	3500k	3839k	4427k	4442k
4/30/2020	Continuing Claims	19476k	17992k	15976k	15818k
4/30/2020	Employment Cost Index	0.60%	0.80%	0.70%	—
4/30/2020	MNI Chicago PMI	36.9	—	47.8	—
4/30/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	41.4	—
5/1/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	36.7	—	36.9	—
5/1/2020	Construction Spending MoM	-3.50%	—	-1.30%	—
5/1/2020	ISM Manufacturing	36	—	49.1	—
5/1/2020	ISM New Orders	30	—	42.2	—
5/1/2020	ISM Prices Paid	33	—	37.4	—
5/1/2020	ISM Employment	—	—	43.8	—
5/1/2020	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	6.80m	—	11.37m	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

December 8, 2023 Headlines December 8, 2023
December 7, 2023 Headlines December 7, 2023
December 6, 2023 Headlines December 6, 2023

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.