April 30, 2021 Headlines

Rates are essentially unchanged this morning while the equity rally has stalled. Valuations continue to be a cause of heartburn in risk markets with the stock market at all time highs and spreads in fixed-income at or near all time tights; investors are worried about the impact of a less accommodative Fed in the near to medium term.

Personal incomes in March increased by the largest amount on record, increasing by 21.1% due to the third round of stimulus checks. The increase in income coincided with an increase in spending as purchases of goods and services rose by 4.2%, the highest since June. PCE, which the Fed uses as its official measure of inflation, rose by 2.3% year-over-year. The core PCE reading, excludes food and energy, rose by 1.8%. The Fed has stated that they expect to see temporary spiks in prices as the economy reopens. Additionally, increases in these measures are being impacted by the base effect, i.e., a smaller denominator.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/26/21 Durable Goods Orders 2.30% 0.50% -1.20% -0.90%
04/26/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.60% 1.60% -0.90% -0.30%
04/26/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.70% 0.90% -0.90% -0.80%
04/26/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 1.50% 1.30% -1.10% —
04/26/21 Revisions: Retail Sales
04/26/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 30 37.3 28.9 —
04/27/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% —
04/27/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.10% 1.17% 1.20% 1.25%
04/27/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 11.80% 11.94% 11.10% 11.12%
04/27/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 11.97% 11.22% —
04/27/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 113 121.7 109.7 109
04/27/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 139.6 110 110.1
04/27/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 109.8 109.6 108.3
04/27/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 22 17 17 —
04/28/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.50% 8.60% —
04/28/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$88.0b -$90.6b -$86.7b -$87.1b
04/28/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 1.40% 0.60% 0.90%
04/28/21 Retail Inventories MoM -0.10% -1.40% 0.00% 0.10%
04/28/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% —
04/28/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% —
04/28/21 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% —
04/29/21 Initial Jobless Claims 540k 553k 547k 566k
04/29/21 Continuing Claims 3590k 3660k 3674k 3651k
04/29/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 6.70% 6.40% 4.30% —
04/29/21 Personal Consumption 10.50% 10.70% 2.30% —
04/29/21 GDP Price Index 2.60% 4.10% 2.00% —
04/29/21 Core PCE QoQ 2.40% 2.30% 1.30% —
04/29/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — 55 54.2 —
04/29/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 4.40% 1.90% -10.60% -11.50%
04/29/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 27.50% 25.30% -2.70% -3.80%
04/30/21 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.90% 0.70% —
04/30/21 Personal Income 20.30% 21.10% -7.10% -7.00%
04/30/21 Personal Spending 4.10% 4.20% -1.00% —
04/30/21 Real Personal Spending 3.70% 3.60% -1.20% —
04/30/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% —
04/30/21 PCE Deflator YoY 2.30% 2.30% 1.60% 1.50%
04/30/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.10% —
04/30/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.80% 1.80% 1.40% —
04/30/21 MNI Chicago PMI 65 — 66.3 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 87.5 — 86.5 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 97.6 — 97.2 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 81 — 79.7 —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.70% —
04/30/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

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