April 30, 2021 Headlines

Rates are essentially unchanged this morning while the equity rally has stalled. Valuations continue to be a cause of heartburn in risk markets with the stock market at all time highs and spreads in fixed-income at or near all time tights; investors are worried about the impact of a less accommodative Fed in the near to medium term.

Personal incomes in March increased by the largest amount on record, increasing by 21.1% due to the third round of stimulus checks. The increase in income coincided with an increase in spending as purchases of goods and services rose by 4.2%, the highest since June. PCE, which the Fed uses as its official measure of inflation, rose by 2.3% year-over-year. The core PCE reading, excludes food and energy, rose by 1.8%. The Fed has stated that they expect to see temporary spiks in prices as the economy reopens. Additionally, increases in these measures are being impacted by the base effect, i.e., a smaller denominator.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

04/26/21Durable Goods Orders2.30%0.50%-1.20%-0.90%
04/26/21Durables Ex Transportation1.60%1.60%-0.90%-0.30%
04/26/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%0.90%-0.90%-0.80%
04/26/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.50%1.30%-1.10%
04/26/21Revisions: Retail Sales
04/26/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3037.328.9
04/27/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%0.90%1.00%
04/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.10%1.17%1.20%1.25%
04/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA11.80%11.94%11.10%11.12%
04/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA11.97%11.22%
04/27/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence113121.7109.7109
04/27/21Conf. Board Present Situation139.6110110.1
04/27/21Conf. Board Expectations109.8109.6108.3
04/27/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index221717
04/28/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%8.60%
04/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.0b-$90.6b-$86.7b-$87.1b
04/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%1.40%0.60%0.90%
04/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-1.40%0.00%0.10%
04/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
04/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
04/28/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
04/29/21Initial Jobless Claims540k553k547k566k
04/29/21Continuing Claims3590k3660k3674k3651k
04/29/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.70%6.40%4.30%
04/29/21Personal Consumption10.50%10.70%2.30%
04/29/21GDP Price Index2.60%4.10%2.00%
04/29/21Core PCE QoQ2.40%2.30%1.30%
04/29/21Langer Consumer Comfort5554.2
04/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM4.40%1.90%-10.60%-11.50%
04/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY27.50%25.30%-2.70%-3.80%
04/30/21Employment Cost Index0.70%0.90%0.70%
04/30/21Personal Income20.30%21.10%-7.10%-7.00%
04/30/21Personal Spending4.10%4.20%-1.00%
04/30/21Real Personal Spending3.70%3.60%-1.20%
04/30/21PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.50%0.20%
04/30/21PCE Deflator YoY2.30%2.30%1.60%1.50%
04/30/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%0.10%
04/30/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.80%1.80%1.40%
04/30/21MNI Chicago PMI6566.3
04/30/21U. of Mich. Sentiment87.586.5
04/30/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions97.697.2
04/30/21U. of Mich. Expectations8179.7
04/30/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%
04/30/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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