A better tone in risk markets overnight has pushed Treasury prices lower and the curve steeper. All major equity indices (domestic and overseas) are in the green today, with S&P 500 futures currently up 0.58%. The catalysts for today’s risk-on move include 1) better PMI data from China and Europe, 2) optimism surrounding U.S./China negotiations, and 3) the possibility of a soft Brexit. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump continues to heavily criticize the Fed and Jerome Powell in meetings with Republican senators, staffers, and supporters. According to the article, Trump has touted that economic growth and stock prices would be higher and the budget deficit would be rising less if not for previous Fed rate hikes. President Trump also reportedly had a phone call with Powell March 8 in which he told the Fed Chair, “I guess I’m stuck with you.”
Trump announced recently that he would nominate Fed critic Stephen Moore to the Fed Board of Governors, and Moore will likely face stiff opposition from Democrats in the nomination process. The Fed’s sharp pivot in policy and tone from December to January appears, at least on the surface, to be capitulation to rising political pressure, and as such, the White House will likely maintain current rhetoric to apply further pressure to the Fed to reverse at least two of its 25 bps rate hikes in late 2018.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/1/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.20% | 0.20% | 0.70% |
| 4/1/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | -0.40% | 0.90% | 1.40% |
| 4/1/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.60% | 1.20% | 1.70% |
| 4/1/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | -0.20% | 1.10% | 1.70% |
| 4/1/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | 52.4 | 52.5 | — |
| 4/1/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 54.5 | 55.3 | 54.2 | — |
| 4/1/2019 | ISM Employment | — | 57.5 | 52.3 | — |
| 4/1/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 52.5 | 54.3 | 49.4 | — |
| 4/1/2019 | ISM New Orders | — | 57.4 | 55.5 | — |
| 4/1/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.20% | 1.00% | 1.30% | 2.50% |
| 4/1/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 4/2/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.80% | -1.60% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 4/2/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 4/2/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 4/2/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 4/2/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | 17.50m | 16.56m | — |
| 4/3/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 18.60% | 8.90% | — |
| 4/3/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 175k | 129k | 183k | 197k |
| 4/3/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.8 | 55.3 | 54.8 | — |
| 4/3/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.6 | 54.3 | — |
| 4/3/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 58 | 56.1 | 59.7 | — |
| 4/4/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 117.20% | — |
| 4/4/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 211k | — |
| 4/4/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1750k | — | 1756k | — |
| 4/4/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60 | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 179k | — | 20k | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 178k | — | 25k | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | 4k | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 63.20% | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 4/5/2019 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | — | $17.049b | — |