Treasury prices are lower this morning following several large block sales overnight in the futures market, and Asian and European equity markets are weaker today in a follow through to yesterday’s tech-led plunge in U.S. stocks. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a modest recovery at the open this morning (+14 points). There weren’t really any major headlines overnight, and the economic calendar is essentially empty today outside of two Fed speakers (Kashkari and Brainard). The focus now shifts to Friday’s employment report and speech by Fed Chair Powell. Three-month LIBOR reset higher for the 40th consecutive day (2.321% today), and the yield curve has steepened slightly this week after reaching a new post-crisis low for the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread on March 29.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/02 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.6 | 55.7 | — |
| 04/02 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 04/02 | ISM Manufacturing | 59.6 | 59.3 | 60.8 | — |
| 04/02 | ISM Employment | — | 57.3 | 59.7 | — |
| 04/02 | ISM Prices Paid | 72.5 | 78.1 | 74.2 | — |
| 04/02 | ISM New Orders | — | 61.9 | 64.2 | — |
| 04/03 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.10m | — | 12.94m | — |
| 04/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.90m | — | 16.96m | — |
| 04/04 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.80% | — |
| 04/04 | ADP Employment Change | 210k | — | 235k | — |
| 04/04 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.2 | — | 54.1 | — |
| 04/04 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.3 | — |
| 04/04 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 59 | — | 59.5 | — |
| 04/04 | Factory Orders | 1.70% | — | -1.40% | — |
| 04/04 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 04/04 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 04/04 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 1.20% | — |
| 04/04 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 04/04 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 04/05 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -4.30% | — |
| 04/05 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 215k | — |
| 04/05 | Continuing Claims | 1843k | — | 1871k | — |
| 04/05 | Trade Balance | -$56.8b | — | -$56.6b | — |
| 04/05 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.8 | — |
| 04/06 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 185k | — | 313k | — |
| 04/06 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 04/06 | Change in Private Payrolls | 195k | — | 287k | — |
| 04/06 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 24k | — | 31k | — |
| 04/06 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 04/06 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.20% | — |
| 04/06 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 04/06 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 04/06 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 04/06 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 63.00% | — |
| 04/06 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $13.906b | — |