Treasury prices are lower this morning following several large block sales overnight in the futures market, and Asian and European equity markets are weaker today in a follow through to yesterday’s tech-led plunge in U.S. stocks. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a modest recovery at the open this morning (+14 points). There weren’t really any major headlines overnight, and the economic calendar is essentially empty today outside of two Fed speakers (Kashkari and Brainard). The focus now shifts to Friday’s employment report and speech by Fed Chair Powell. Three-month LIBOR reset higher for the 40th consecutive day (2.321% today), and the yield curve has steepened slightly this week after reaching a new post-crisis low for the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread on March 29.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


04/02Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.755.655.7
04/02Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/02ISM Manufacturing59.659.360.8
04/02ISM Employment57.359.7
04/02ISM Prices Paid72.578.174.2
04/02ISM New Orders61.964.2
04/03Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.10m12.94m
04/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m16.96m
04/04MBA Mortgage Applications4.80%
04/04ADP Employment Change210k235k
04/04Markit US Services PMI54.254.1
04/04Markit US Composite PMI54.3
04/04ISM Non-Manf. Composite5959.5
04/04Factory Orders1.70%-1.40%
04/04Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
04/04Durable Goods Orders3.10%
04/04Durables Ex Transportation1.20%
04/04Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.80%
04/04Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%
04/05Challenger Job Cuts YoY-4.30%
04/05Initial Jobless Claims225k215k
04/05Continuing Claims1843k1871k
04/05Trade Balance-$56.8b-$56.6b
04/05Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.8
04/06Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k313k
04/06Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
04/06Change in Private Payrolls195k287k
04/06Change in Manufact. Payrolls24k31k
04/06Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%
04/06Underemployment Rate8.20%
04/06Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
04/06Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.60%
04/06Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
04/06Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%
04/06Consumer Credit$15.000b$13.906b