Global equity markets are lower today on more “trade war” headlines. S&P 500 futures are off 1.5% (back to February lows), and Treasury prices are modestly higher across the curve (risk off). Following yesterday’s market close, the Treasury Department published a list of $50 billion of Chinese imports that could be subject to a 25% tariff. China quickly responded this morning with its own $50 billion list of tariffs, including autos and agricultural tariffs. Neither will go into effect immediately, and officials from both countries are reportedly negotiating behind the scenes (i.e., more bark than bite at this point). Separately on the trade front, reports from the White House suggest that an updated NAFTA could be announced in the next two weeks, with a goal of having an agreement struck ahead of the Mexican election in July. The ADP employment report showed private payrolls adding 241,000 jobs in March, which was 31,000 above expectations.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
| 04/02/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Mar F | 55.7 | 55.6 | 55.7 |
| 04/02/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | Feb | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | Mar | 59.6 | 59.3 | 60.8 |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM Employment | Mar | — | 57.3 | 59.7 |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | Mar | 72.5 | 78.1 | 74.2 |
| 04/02/2018 | ISM New Orders | Mar | — | 61.9 | 64.2 |
| 04/03/2018 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | Mar | 13.10m | 13.42m | 12.94m |
| 04/03/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Mar | 16.90m | 17.40m | 16.96m |
| 04/04/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 30-Mar | — | -3.30% | 4.80% |
| 04/04/2018 | ADP Employment Change | Mar | 210k | 241k | 235k |
| 04/04/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | Mar F | 54.2 | — | 54.1 |
| 04/04/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | Mar F | — | — | 54.3 |
| 04/04/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Mar | 59 | — | 59.5 |
| 04/04/2018 | Factory Orders | Feb | 1.70% | — | -1.40% |
| 04/04/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | Feb | — | — | 0.40% |
| 04/04/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | Feb F | — | — | 3.10% |
| 04/04/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | Feb F | — | — | 1.20% |
| 04/04/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Feb F | — | — | 1.80% |
| 04/04/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Feb F | — | — | 1.40% |
| 04/05/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | Mar | — | — | -4.30% |
| 04/05/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 31-Mar | 225k | — | 215k |
| 04/05/2018 | Continuing Claims | 24-Mar | 1843k | — | 1871k |
| 04/05/2018 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$56.8b | — | -$56.6b |
| 04/05/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 1-Apr | — | — | 56.8 |
| 04/06/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Mar | 185k | — | 313k |
| 04/06/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Mar | — | — | — |
| 04/06/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | Mar | 190k | — | 287k |
| 04/06/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Mar | 23k | — | 31k |
| 04/06/2018 | Unemployment Rate | Mar | 4.00% | — | 4.10% |
| 04/06/2018 | Underemployment Rate | Mar | — | — | 8.20% |
| 04/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Mar | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 04/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Mar | 2.70% | — | 2.60% |
| 04/06/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Mar | 34.5 | — | 34.5 |
| 04/06/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Mar | — | — | 63.00% |
| 04/06/2018 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $15.500b | — | $13.906b |
| 04/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Mar | — | — | 107.6 |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Mar | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Mar | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Mar | — | — | 0.40% |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Mar | 2.90% | — | 2.80% |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Mar | — | — | 2.50% |
| 04/10/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Mar | — | — | 2.70% |
| 04/10/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Feb | — | — | -1.10% |
| 04/10/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Feb F | 0.50% | — | 1.10% |
| 04/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 6-Apr | — | — | -3.30% |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI MoM | Mar | 0.00% | — | 0.20% |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Mar | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI YoY | Mar | 2.30% | — | 2.20% |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Mar | 2.10% | — | 1.80% |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Index NSA | Mar | — | — | 248.991 |
| 04/11/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | Mar | — | — | 255.751 |
| 04/11/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Mar | — | — | 0.60% |
| 04/11/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Mar | — | — | 0.40% |
| 04/11/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | Mar | — | — | -$215.2b |
| 04/11/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | 21-Mar | — | — | — |