Global equity markets are lower today on more “trade war” headlines. S&P 500 futures are off 1.5% (back to February lows), and Treasury prices are modestly higher across the curve (risk off).  Following yesterday’s market close, the Treasury Department published a list of $50 billion of Chinese imports that could be subject to a 25% tariff. China quickly responded this morning with its own $50 billion list of tariffs, including autos and agricultural tariffs. Neither will go into effect immediately, and officials from both countries are reportedly negotiating behind the scenes (i.e., more bark than bite at this point). Separately on the trade front, reports from the White House suggest that an updated NAFTA could be announced in the next two weeks, with a goal of having an agreement struck ahead of the Mexican election in July. The ADP employment report showed private payrolls adding 241,000 jobs in March, which was 31,000 above expectations.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
04/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMIMar F55.755.655.7
04/02/2018Construction Spending MoMFeb0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/02/2018ISM ManufacturingMar59.659.360.8
04/02/2018ISM EmploymentMar57.359.7
04/02/2018ISM Prices PaidMar72.578.174.2
04/02/2018ISM New OrdersMar61.964.2
04/03/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesMar13.10m13.42m12.94m
04/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle SalesMar16.90m17.40m16.96m
04/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications30-Mar-3.30%4.80%
04/04/2018ADP Employment ChangeMar210k241k235k
04/04/2018Markit US Services PMIMar F54.254.1
04/04/2018Markit US Composite PMIMar F54.3
04/04/2018ISM Non-Manf. CompositeMar5959.5
04/04/2018Factory OrdersFeb1.70%-1.40%
04/04/2018Factory Orders Ex TransFeb0.40%
04/04/2018Durable Goods OrdersFeb F3.10%
04/04/2018Durables Ex TransportationFeb F1.20%
04/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirFeb F1.80%
04/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirFeb F1.40%
04/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoYMar-4.30%
04/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims31-Mar225k215k
04/05/2018Continuing Claims24-Mar1843k1871k
04/05/2018Trade BalanceFeb-$56.8b-$56.6b
04/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort1-Apr56.8
04/06/2018Change in Nonfarm PayrollsMar185k313k
04/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionMar
04/06/2018Change in Private PayrollsMar190k287k
04/06/2018Change in Manufact. PayrollsMar23k31k
04/06/2018Unemployment RateMar4.00%4.10%
04/06/2018Underemployment RateMar8.20%
04/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoMMar0.30%0.10%
04/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoYMar2.70%2.60%
04/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesMar34.534.5
04/06/2018Labor Force Participation RateMar63.00%
04/06/2018Consumer CreditFeb$15.500b$13.906b
04/10/2018NFIB Small Business OptimismMar107.6
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand MoMMar0.20%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMMar0.20%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMMar0.40%
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand YoYMar2.90%2.80%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYMar2.50%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYMar2.70%
04/10/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoMFeb-1.10%
04/10/2018Wholesale Inventories MoMFeb F0.50%1.10%
04/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications6-Apr-3.30%
04/11/2018CPI MoMMar0.00%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMMar0.20%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI YoYMar2.30%2.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYMar2.10%1.80%
04/11/2018CPI Index NSAMar248.991
04/11/2018CPI Core Index SAMar255.751
04/11/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYMar0.60%
04/11/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYMar0.40%
04/11/2018Monthly Budget StatementMar-$215.2b
04/11/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes21-Mar