Treasuries are little changed following the release of the March jobs report, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 28 bps. Nonfarm payrolls added 196,000 jobs in March, nearly 20,000 more than expected and up from the dismal 33,000 figure in February (revised modestly higher today). Within the data, the manufacturing sector shed 6,000 jobs on the month, which was the first contraction in that sector since July 2017. Manufacturing data from the U.S. and other major economies has disappointed in recent months, with some pointing to new tariffs as a major culprit. While job growth was better than expected, the wage data was disappointing. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% in March (0.3% expected and 0.4% in February), and on a year-over-year basis, earnings growth fell 20 bps to 3.2%. For the household survey, employment fell 201,000 over the month, which was nearly mirrored by a 224,000 decline in the official labor force. As such, the headline unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. Overall, this report was a bit of a snooze. Payrolls growth bounced back as expected, but wage growth took a step back. There’s nothing here that would make the Fed rethink its recent dovish policy pivot.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.20% | 0.20% | 0.70% |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | -0.40% | 0.90% | 1.40% |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.60% | 1.20% | 1.70% |
| 04/01/19 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | -0.20% | 1.10% | 1.70% |
| 04/01/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | 52.4 | 52.5 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM Manufacturing | 54.5 | 55.3 | 54.2 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM Employment | — | 57.5 | 52.3 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM Prices Paid | 52.5 | 54.3 | 49.4 | — |
| 04/01/19 | ISM New Orders | — | 57.4 | 55.5 | — |
| 04/01/19 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.20% | 1.00% | 1.30% | 2.50% |
| 04/01/19 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 04/02/19 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.80% | -1.60% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 04/02/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 04/02/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 04/02/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 04/02/19 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | 17.50m | 16.56m | — |
| 04/03/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 18.60% | 8.90% | — |
| 04/03/19 | ADP Employment Change | 175k | 129k | 183k | 197k |
| 04/03/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.8 | 55.3 | 54.8 | — |
| 04/03/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.6 | 54.3 | — |
| 04/03/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 58 | 56.1 | 59.7 | — |
| 04/04/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 0.40% | 117.20% | — |
| 04/04/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 202k | 211k | 212k |
| 04/04/19 | Continuing Claims | 1752k | 1717k | 1756k | 1755k |
| 04/04/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 58.9 | 60 | — |
| 04/05/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 177k | 196k | 20k | 33k |
| 04/05/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 14k | — | — |
| 04/05/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 177k | 182k | 25k | 28k |
| 04/05/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | -6k | 4k | 1k |
| 04/05/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.80% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.40% | 3.20% | 3.40% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | — |
| 04/05/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.20% | 63.00% | 63.20% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.30% | 7.30% | — |
| 04/05/19 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | — | $17.049b | — |