Treasuries are little changed following the release of the March jobs report, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 28 bps. Nonfarm payrolls added 196,000 jobs in March, nearly 20,000 more than expected and up from the dismal 33,000 figure in February (revised modestly higher today). Within the data, the manufacturing sector shed 6,000 jobs on the month, which was the first contraction in that sector since July 2017. Manufacturing data from the U.S. and other major economies has disappointed in recent months, with some pointing to new tariffs as a major culprit. While job growth was better than expected, the wage data was disappointing. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% in March (0.3% expected and 0.4% in February), and on a year-over-year basis, earnings growth fell 20 bps to 3.2%. For the household survey, employment fell 201,000 over the month, which was nearly mirrored by a 224,000 decline in the official labor force. As such, the headline unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. Overall, this report was a bit of a snooze. Payrolls growth bounced back as expected, but wage growth took a step back. There’s nothing here that would make the Fed rethink its recent dovish policy pivot.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
04/01/19Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%-0.20%0.20%0.70%
04/01/19Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%-0.40%0.90%1.40%
04/01/19Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.60%1.20%1.70%
04/01/19Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.20%1.10%1.70%
04/01/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.552.452.5
04/01/19ISM Manufacturing54.555.354.2
04/01/19ISM Employment57.552.3
04/01/19ISM Prices Paid52.554.349.4
04/01/19ISM New Orders57.455.5
04/01/19Construction Spending MoM-0.20%1.00%1.30%2.50%
04/01/19Business Inventories0.50%0.80%0.60%0.80%
04/02/19Durable Goods Orders-1.80%-1.60%0.30%0.10%
04/02/19Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.10%-0.20%-0.10%
04/02/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.10%0.80%0.90%
04/02/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.00%0.80%1.00%
04/02/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m17.50m16.56m
04/03/19MBA Mortgage Applications18.60%8.90%
04/03/19ADP Employment Change175k129k183k197k
04/03/19Markit US Services PMI54.855.354.8
04/03/19Markit US Composite PMI54.654.3
04/03/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5856.159.7
04/04/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY0.40%117.20%
04/04/19Initial Jobless Claims215k202k211k212k
04/04/19Continuing Claims1752k1717k1756k1755k
04/04/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.960
04/05/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls177k196k20k33k
04/05/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision14k
04/05/19Change in Private Payrolls177k182k25k28k
04/05/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k-6k4k1k
04/05/19Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%3.80%
04/05/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%0.40%
04/05/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%3.20%3.40%
04/05/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.4
04/05/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.00%63.20%
04/05/19Underemployment Rate7.30%7.30%
04/05/19Consumer Credit$17.000b$17.049b